Carson Wentz’s New Contract; What the Stats Say

Dora Grande via Flickr

NFL

What Should the Philadelphia Eagles Pay Carson Wentz and When?

September 11th, 2016. Vice President Joe Biden has just walked off the field following the National Anthem and fly-over; it’s the Philadelphia Eagles’ season opener. First-year head coach Doug Pederson nervously paces the sidelines across from Hue Jackson and the Cleveland Browns. Season and game expectations are low for both teams.

In the opening drive at the 13-minute mark, Carson Wentz yelled “kill kill” for the first time in Lincoln Financial Field. After calling for an audible, Wentz threw a 14-yard bullet to tight end Zach Ertz. Immediately after, another 11-yard bullet to TE Brent Celek. Three plays later came Wentz’s first of many touchdowns, this one to wide receiver Jordan Matthews.

By the end of the afternoon, Wentz had thrown two touchdowns and completed 22 of 37 attempts. In two hours and 59 minutes, the city of Philadelphia had transformed into Wentzylvania. The second overall pick was coming into his own.

Three years later, the mysticism of Wentz has faded and doubt has begun to creep in. For the second straight year, Wentz was not the quarterback leading the Eagles in the playoff charge. Coincidentally, he’s entering into the last year of his four-year rookie contract. Fans, as well as the franchise, are wondering: just what is Wentz worth?

Carson’s Rookie Contract

Following the 2016 NFL Draft, Wentz and the Eagles agreed to a four-year $26.7 million contract. The contract amount up through 2019 was fully guaranteed and included a $17.6 million signing bonus, giving the rookie an average salary of $6.7 million per year.

As is standard with first-round draft picks, his contract included a fifth-year option. This meant Wentz’s contract would lapse at the end of 2019, or 2020 if the Eagles opted for the fifth-year.

Carson Wentz By the Numbers

Wentz currently holds a 23-17 regular season record in the NFL. In the 40 games he has played as an Eagle, he has started every one. After just three seasons, he’s finished in the top 10 in passer rating twice as well as adjusted yards.

Contrasted against his draft class (Jared Goff and Dak Prescott), Wentz has done well.

• Completion %: Prescott (66.1), Wentz (63.7), Goff (62.1)
• Yards Per Game: Wentz (253), Goff (252), Prescott (226)
• Touchdowns: Wentz (70), Prescott (67), Goff (65)
• Interception Percentage: Prescott (1.7%), Wentz (1.9%), Goff (2.1%)
• Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt: Goff (7.81), Prescott (7.52), Wentz (7.11)
• Highest Season QBR: Wentz (78.5), Prescott (77.6), Goff (65.9)

Wentz finished first or second in every category but one. However, both Goff and Prescott have played in and won a playoff game. Wentz has never played in the postseason and has only finished a season once in his career (2016).

Goff and Prescott have yet to re-sign a new deal with their respective teams.

Paycheck Precedent

Several seasoned quarterbacks have signed large contracts in the last few years; Aaron Rogers signed a four-year $134 million contract ($78.7 million guaranteed), Jimmy Garoppolo inked a $137.7 million deal ($48.7 million guaranteed) for five years, and Kirk Cousins received a fully guaranteed $84 million three-year contract.

Wentz’s former backup QB, Nick Foles, has signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars on a four-year $88 million contract. Foles is guaranteed in total, $50.1 million.

Using proven production as a guiding metric, Wentz falls below Rogers, above Garoppolo and nearly equal with Cousins.

Per Game Career Stats

Wentz: 63.8 Comp %, 253.8 Passing Yds, 1.8 Passing TDs, 0.7 INT, 13.6 Rushing Yds

Cousins: 66.4 Comp %, 262.9 Passing Yds, 1.7 Passing TDs, 0.8 INT, 6.4 Rushing Yds

Time and market inflation fall in Wentz’s favor. After the aforementioned QBs (Rogers, Garoppolo, Cousins) signed their respective contracts, the market price for a franchise quarterback dramatically increased.

Additionally, 2017 draftee Patrick Mahomes, is set to re-sign with the Kansas City Chiefs after next season. Mahomes could sign the biggest contract in NFL history, which in turn raises the market value for Carson Wentz.

While the Eagles will not sign Wentz for a three-year deal, like Cousins, the annual salary will likely be close. Using Cousins’ $28 million annual salary in the context of a probable five-year deal, the max value of Wentz’ future contract would be $135-140 million.

Notably, all of that money will certainly not be guaranteed. It would be fair to assume that roughly half of that amount would be guaranteed, maybe less given Wentz’s injury history. Anywhere from $65-75 million would be guaranteed.

When to Ink Up

The Eagles could re-sign Carson Wentz this offseason, in the 2019 season, or, exercise the fifth-year option and try and work out a contract during the 2020 season. The danger in waiting until the fifth year to try and lock him up is if negotiations fall through and Wentz becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Comments made by the organization indicate they are open to re-signing Wentz sooner rather than later. However, the longer Wentz waits, the higher the market will climb given Mahomes’ future contract along with the QB’s in his draft class.

If the Eagles wait to sign him until later in the 2019 or 2020 season, Wentz will have a greater opportunity to prove his abilities. After an impressive rookie season, and an MVP worthy sophomore season (before an injury), Wentz was on track to a huge deal. However, after the brakes fell off the organization in 2018 and another injury, the franchise is presumably hesitant to fiscally committing too much to Wentz.

If Carson and company can put together an impressive offensive showing in the beginning weeks of the 2019 season, his agency and Philadelphia could work out a contract before the playoffs even begin.

Photo Credit

Featured image courtesy of Dora Grande via Flickr

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