An Offensive Explosion, Can Defenses Keep Up?

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NFL

After a Record-Setting Season, Will NFL Defenses Be Left in the Dust?

Despite culminating in the lowest scoring Super Bowl, the 2018 NFL season was one of offensive excellence.

After just seven weeks of play, Drew Brees broke the all-time passing record, Tom Brady threw his 500th touchdown, Jarvis Landry set a receptions record, and a backup quarterback threw over 400 passing yards for three consecutive weeks.

The offensive success this season wasn’t limited to just a few clubs. Only one team in the league averaged less than 280 yards a game, while four teams averaged over 400.

So, was the 2018 season the dawn of a new age or a notch in a greater phenomenon? Have today’s NFL offenses outgrown modern-day defense? Will the pendulum swing back to the other side of the ball as it has before?

Offensive Production Over the Decades

In 1968 quarterback, Earl Morrall of the Baltimore Colts won league MVP, throwing for 2,909 passing yards. Cleveland Browns’ running back, Leroy Kelly, was the rushing leader that season recording 1,239 rushing yards.

Morrall and Kelly met in the 1968 NFL Championship, resulting in a Colts victory. Baltimore then lost to Joe Namath and the New York Jets in Super Bowl III. Namath was the first QB to ever throw for 4,000 yards in a season (1967). 13 seasons would go by before another QB would accomplish this feat.

Today, it’s been 21 years since the NFL’s passing leader has thrown under 4,000 yards in a season. Morrall’s 2,909 passing yards is met with 2018 NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes’ 5,097 passing yards.

The gradual increase in the passing game’s production has been unparalleled. Over the past ten seasons alone, the league’s average passing yards per game have gradually increased by 8.83%. 2017, a year that saw ten starting quarterbacks sidelined from injuries, is the only outlier.

 

Run Game Doesn’t Waiver

For the past 51 seasons, rushing production has stayed consistent. Half a century later, Kelly’s 1,239 rushing yards is still an impressive feat. Today it would make him the fourth leading rusher behind Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Todd Gurley.

As depicted, rushing yards per game saw a six-year high this season with an average of 114.5 yards per game. The dip in rushing yards prior to the past six years is congruent with the overall shift from the ground game. However, the heightened passing game has helped increase the efficiency of the run game.

So while less rushing yards are achieved today than in the 1970s, rushing attempts have become more effective.

By measuring the average yards per game across the league, two things become apparent. First, the passing game has amplified offensive production. Second, there is indisputably a historical uptick in offensive production since the 1970s and another surge in the 2010s.

The next question becomes, was 2018 congruent with the gradual increase seen as of recent?

2018 Offensive Prowess

The 2018 season was the second-highest scoring season in league history, and it didn’t take long to heat up. Week 1 saw an instant classic between future Hall of Fame QB, Drew Brees, and journeymen QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick. The game ended 48-40 in Tampa Bay’s favor over the Saints, both quarterbacks throwing for well over 400 yards.

October put on an AFC battle royale between the Chiefs and the Patriots, ending in a 43-40 New England victory. Not only did both QB’s throw for over 320 yards, but one running back from each team ran for 80 or more yards.

November held the third-highest scoring game of all time between the Chiefs and the Rams. The 54-51 LA victory included 827 passing yards, and ten passing touchdowns, along with 174 rushing yards and one touchdown.

However, while 2018 saw the highest average yards per play, second-highest points per game, and one of the lowest turnover rates, it was no aberration. Statistically, it fell exactly where it should be given the modern rate of improving efficiency.

Defense Wins Championships?

The 2018 AFC and NFC championship games were comprised of the 21st, 31st, 14th, and 19th ranked defenses by yards allowed. Over the past ten seasons, the average ranking (by yards allowed) of the Super Bowl champion defense is just 12.2. Between 1990 and 1970, the average ranking was 4.9.

This severe drop in defensive proficiency of teams who have found success creates a juxtaposition to the age-old idea that “defense wins championships.” As of the last decade, average defenses will do the trick.

Out of the top ten defenses of 2018, only four of them made the playoffs, and only two made it past the Wild Card round.

This isn’t to say that a strong defense cannot carry a team. Teams like the 2016 Minnesota Vikings, 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars, and the 2018 Chicago Bears rode on the coattails of their respective defenses. However, with a lack of offense, their success had a ceiling.

Has the NFL Offense Outgrown the NFL Defense?

It’s clear teams no longer need a great defense to win a championship, and NFL offenses show no sign of slowing down, especially through the air. This poses the last and maybe most important questions: have NFL offenses outgrown defenses and if so will defenses ever catch up?

From player stature to formations, defensive coordinators are breaking away from their predecessors. In 1998, defensive end Reggie White was the defensive player of the year. White stood at 6’5″ and 291lbs. That season he recorded one forced fumble, two fumble recoveries, 133 combined tackles, and 18 sacks. White was a revelation to NFL defenses at the time.

Fast-forward 31 seasons, Aaron Donald won the same award for the second consecutive year. Donald, a defensive tackle, is a modest 6’1″ and 280lbs. He forced four fumbles, recovered two, 59 combined tackles, and 20.5 sacks this past season.

While White remains one of the best defensive linemen of all time, his unique offering to the game has become an expectation for lineman across the league; DTs are now expected to be strong enough to push through an offensive lineman, and quick enough to breakthrough open gaps.

In response to the rise in passing game, another component of the front-seven has gone through an evolution. Linebackers have thinned down over the years to help contribute in pass coverage. This has some teams shifting to a 3-4 defensive formation rather than the typical 4-3.

This overall evolution shows the reverberating relationship between the offense and the defense. Defensive strategy is a cat and mouse game, the defense being Tom, constantly chasing after Jerry’s power sweeps and slip routes.

Progress Not Perfection

Through the corpus of adaptations; defensive coordinators have found ways to slow down and even stop certain offensive strategies; those thousands of chalk boxes in Wade Phillips’ office did not die in vain.

For example, over time tight ends have become prolific receivers. The transformation of the linebacker’s role and responsibilities have helped contain the receiving threat TEs can now cause.

The increased athleticism of defensive lineman has also born good fruit. There has been a 40% increase in the number of sacks per game in just the last ten years. However, the front-seven haven’t received much help from the secondary.

2016, 2015, 2018, 2014, and 2017 have seen the five-lowest interception percentages in NFL history respectively. This paired with the resurgence in the passing game has meant disaster at times for defenses.

Past is Prologue

Any given league will ebb and flow from offensive to defensive dominance. In the early 2000s, it was defenses calling the shots in the National Football league. During the 1970s and 1980s, the introduction of the “vertical offense” nearly hijacked the league.

In the 2004 season, there were 524 interceptions across the league and 1,196 sacks. On average, only 210 yards were allowed per game that season. The defensive upper hand lasted until about 2008 when tables began to turn.

After an offensive peak in 1989, defenses reclaimed the schoolyard in the 90s. From 1990 to 1999, defenses allowed on average only 204.3 yards a game. Secondaries were picking off 3.4% of passes, and the front-seven force was sacking the quarterback on 6.9% of passing attempts.

As with almost all things, a pendulum swings from one extreme to the other, either finding rest in the middle or staying in perpetual motion. When it comes to the National Football League since its inception in 1920, offenses and defenses have taken their turn at the top.

Long Story Short

The average span of seasons where either counterpart maintains supremacy is about four. However, the current offensive rule starting in 2008 has yet to be stifled. Except for 2017, for the past ten consecutive seasons, defenses have been unable to wrestle themselves back on top.

Between elite quarterbacks finding ways to play longer, an influx of talented offensive stars, and changes in the rule and playbook, it’s been hard for defenses to keep up. It would be intellectually cheap to conclude that offenses have pulled away from defenses and that gap between them will only further widen.

It’s quite likely the pendulum will begin to swing back producing a more balanced performance on both sides of the ball. Defenses around the league have shown they are capable of adapting to successful offensive changes.

However, with the increasing efficiency of offenses around the league, it is hard to see their production nose-dive. So while defenses will almost certainly adapt and balance the scales in the future, don’t expect a drastic dip in offense anytime soon.

Photo Credit

Featured Image courtesy of Smashdown Sports News

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