NBA
Danny Green: Breaking Down His Plus/Minus Stat and Why It Matters
I am a basketball dork.
I check basketball box scores every night without fail – even before I had this job (where I can somewhat justify this unhealthy obsession I have with the game of basketball).
One of my favourite odd stats to look at is the plus/minus.
For the uninitiated, it’s fairly simple: Just like hockey, it’s a number that reflects the difference between how many points your team scores when you are on the court. You also subtract the number of points your team gives up when you’re on the bench.
If that number is positive, you’re a valuable asset. If it’s a negative, you aren’t good. And your mother hates you.
It’s an interesting way to contextualize stats.
For example, dominant scorers who don’t play defense get the criticism they deserve. A scorer like Carmelo Anthony is an example of that. Anthony can still score 20 PPG, but he plays absolutely no defense. It’s Financial Management 101: If you earn $100, but spend $120, you’re screwed.
For so many years, players were mostly evaluated based on their ability to score points – and nothing else. A simple +/- stat sheds more light onto this phenomenon. It also creates arguments why Kawhi Leonard might be more valuable than LeBron James. And it could very well be true – since James struggles mightily on the defensive side of the floor.
Why Danny Green Is The Underrated Part Of The Kawhi Leonard Trade?
The most underrated part of the Leonard trade was acquiring “throw-in” salary filler Danny Green along with him.
It may sound crazy to say, but he might be the Raptors’ most valuable player this season – even more vital to the Raps’ success than any Raptors whose first name begins with the letter K.
Green is one of the best transition wing defenders in the NBA. He also currently leads the Raptors in +/-, and is fifth in the NBA in that department.
Losing Danny Green Next Season Could Affect Raptors More Than Losing Leonard
If we also take into consideration his reasonable NBA salary of $10 million, he might be one of the best deals in the entire NBA. I would go so far as to say that losing Green next season could affect the franchise more than losing Leonard: relative to economic cost. He would likely cost somewhere in the neighbourhood of $35-$40 million dollars a year for several seasons. 31-year old Green could probably be had for closer to 8-10 million for a couple years. So Leonard will cost 3-5 times as much money as Green, but the Raptors have a higher +/- when Green plays.
It’s hardly sexy for the marketing department to make commercials of an integer, but that odd statistic could matter way more than any personality quirks or name recognition.
The reason the New England Patriots have dominated the NFL for so many years is that they eschew “name value” for statistical measures: it’s a winning formula in basically every walk of life.
Green may never get the respect he deserves, or the commensurate salary. But I invite you to check his +/- number in every single box score.
His mother clearly loves him.
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