NHL
William Karlsson and Mark Stone: Front Runners of the Five RFA’s Filing for Arbitration.
According to nhl.com, the first day of August holds the hearing for Cody Ceci and Gemel Smith; while August 3 belongs to Mark Stone’s hearing. Saturday, August 4, and the last day of arbitration meetings, Patrik Nemeth and William Karlsson will have hearings. All of these hearings are to be held in Toronto.
Let’s take a look at each of these five players and compare them to players to predict what each should receive for their 2018-19 salary. Looking at players from the lowest predicted salary, to the highest.
Gemel Smith: Dallas Stars
During Smith’s short four years in the Dallas Stars organization, he has played just 63 games in the National Hockey League. In the 63 games with the Stars, Gemel Smith put up 17 points (9 G, 8 A). 17 points is not too impressive for anyone that is looking for a bump in pay for the 2018-19 season.
Following the 2016-17 season, Dallas inked Smith to a one year deal worth $650,000. According to capfriendly.com, Gemel Smith’s one year deal had no performance bonuses or signing bonuses.
It will be a surprise to me if the arbitrator gives Smith a contract that is worth more than $750,000 through 2018-19. He is the 13th forward and 5th center for the Stars and would most likely be sitting in a suite in American Airlines Center in Dallas.
There are not many players to compare Gemel Smith to for a salary comparison but if I had to pick one, a good comparison is Paul Carey. The Ottawa Senators’ center has a Cap Hit of $700,000 for the upcoming season and according to hockey-reference.com, tallied 14 points in 60 games last year.
Jared’s Projection: $700,000
Patrik Nemeth: Colorado Avalanche
Coming into the 2017-18 season, Nemeth had no career goals. After the 2017-18 season, he set a career high in goals (3), assists (12) and points (15). The 6’3″, 219lbs defenseman has 29 points (3 G, 26 A) in 176 career games. In 11 career Stanley Cup Playoff games, Nemeth has amassed one assist. The most games Patrik has played in one season came this past year with the Colorado Avalanche at 68 games.
With Nemeth coming off a career high in points, he is also coming off the highest contract he has had in his career at $945,000. With the stats he put up in the 2017-18 season, it will not be a surprise to me if he gets a nice little raise to just above $1 million. Possibly in the area of $1.15 million.
A great comparison happens to be Connor Carrick. Toronto’s defenseman did only put up 12 points in 47 games last year but makes $1.3 million. While Carrick did play fewer games, the salary could be around what Patrik Nemeth gets.
Jared’s Prediction: $1.2 million
Cody Ceci: Ottawa Senators
Ceci is coming off the final year of his two-year contract averaging $2.8 million annually. In his contract year Cody Ceci scored five goals and 19 points in 82 games. According to Hockey Reference, Ceci’s CF% (Corsi Percentage) was 43.8 percent, the lowest it has been in his career. This means that the Ottawa Senators had the puck less time than the opponent while he was on the ice. Another advanced analytical drop in Ceci’s career is his FF% (Fenwick Percentage). Cody Ceci’s FF% was at 44.4 percent. Another stat showing that Ottawa did not control the puck the majority of the time Ceci and his defensive partner were on the ice.
Although, Ceci’s Corsi% and Fenwick% were below 50% that just shows that the overall team success was not up to snub with the elite and average teams in the league. A team lacking success also is a team whose players have a low Corsi % and Fenwick %.
Cody Ceci had an Entry Level Contract of $925,000 in 2012-13, then $894,167 for the next three seasons. On his ELC, he raised the eyebrows of ownership and received a contract of $2.8 million for two seasons. Even though Ottawa did not make the playoffs, Ceci also did not have an outstanding season. If I had to predict what he will get in arbitration, I would assume it would be around the mark he left off at, say $2.8 million?
Radko Gudas is a great comparison of both points per game and contracts wise. Both defensemen with 0.23 ppg, Gudas has a Cap Hit of $3.35 million. I do not believe Cody Ceci is worth that price, but if that is what his camp wants as a minimum, I could see the arbitrator landing somewhere between that and $2.8 million.
Jared’s Prediction: $3.1 million
Mark Stone: Ottawa Senators
Mark Stone was tied for the team lead in points with Erik Karlsson at 62 points. Stone did lead the team in the +/- category amounting a +9. After a year like this past one, I am surprised that Ottawa has let Stone get this far into the summer without a contract. If I were the GM, I would have given Stone an arm and a leg to sign with my team. Stone is a big contributor to fans showing up at games this season. Without a star forward, why would anyone buy tickets?
Mark Stone’s previous contract was a three-year deal worth $3.5 million annually. To no one’s surprise, Stone is due to a huge raise. Possibly even up to a $3 million-plus raise, but if that is what the Stone camp wants, the Senators camp may want to keep him closer to $5 million rather than $6-6.5 million. If this is the case an arbitration hearing could land Mark Stone in between but closer to the latter of the two.
One of the best comparisons to Mark Stone is probably Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks. Couture has two years left at $6 million, he also tallied 61 points in 78 games while Stone hit the 62 point mark in 20 fewer games.
Jared’s Prediction: $6.15 million
William Karlsson: Vegas Golden Knights
Here is a strange case of “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.” William Karlsson went from a +/- of 10 with Columbus to a +/- 49 with Vegas. He also scored 37 more goals, 16 more assists and 53 more points with Vegas than he had with Columbus. Karlsson also won the Lady Byng Trophy this past year. William Karlsson led the Golden Knights in goals (43), points (78) and plus/minus (49).
Karlsson’s last contract was a two-year deal worth $2 million. After this offseason, he may be one of the highest paid RFAs coming out of an arbitration hearing in the history of the NHL. I could easily see him getting $5 million plus, possibly even near the $7 million range.
A player that comes to my mind that can compare in the points increase is Connor McDavid from 2015-16 to 2016-17. No McDavid didn’t go from 25 to 78 points, he went from 40 to 100, which is a 52 point increase. McDavid also only played 45 games the previous year and the full 82 the next. On the other hand, Connor McDavid is coming into next season with a $12.5 million Cap Hit, something William Karlsson will not have.
Jared’s Prediction: $6.5 million
It could take up to 48 hours for the arbitrator to decide the salary for any of these players. This is going to be a fun week especially for the Ottawa Senators who will decide which players need to be dealt after two of their RFAs get a bump in salary from the arbitrator.
Stay tuned to tsj101sports.com for news regarding the signings of these NHLers.
