NFL
Fantasy Football Stud or Dud: Week 3
For the second iteration of Stud or Dud, I want to start by issuing an apology. Patrick Mahomes was on my dud list last week and he really proved me wrong. Mahomes threw for 6 touchdowns as the Chiefs beat up on the Steelers defense. So, to Patrick Mahomes: I’m sorry and, wow, what a game you played. The Chiefs gunslinger set a record with ten TDs in the first two weeks of the season.
Last week left the fantasy world with some weird stat leaders. Matt Brieda is the number-one rusher in terms of yards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Pat Mahomes are the number-one and two fantasy QBs, respectively, and DeSean Jackson is the third-ranked fantasy receiver. Now, for the advice: there are plenty of good matchups this week and fantasy players will look to take advantage.
Quarterback
Stud
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers: Garoppolo has had two mediocre games to start the season and will look to snap out of the funk this weekend. The 49ers will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The Chiefs have allowed 32.5 points per game to begin the season. They will get a boost with the return of Eric Berry, but don’t expect a huge improvement. The 49ers do not have a large amount of options at receivers, which can limit Garoppolo’s upside, but playing the Chiefs in what looks to be a shootout should allow Garoppolo to put up big numbers. 49ers running back Matt Brieda emerged last week and is now the leading rusher in the NFL (through two weeks, I know). This should take some pressure off Garoppolo to lead the offense. Expect mid-tier QB1 numbers from the 49ers QB.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Luck has had a decent start to the season, throwing four touchdowns in two games. The Colts QB has turned the ball over three times in these games, though, which will be something he’ll look to clean up. The Colts travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles this week. This may seem like a bad matchup on the surface, but the Eagles were shredded in Week 2. The Philly defense allowed 400+ yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and are looking to regroup after their atrocious performance. However, it does not appear that one week will be enough time for meaningful improvement. Expect Luck to produce solid mid-tier QB1 numbers in Week 3.
Dud
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: Wentz is making his return from the injury that ended his 2017 season. The Eagles slow-played his return to ensure a full recovery for the future star of their franchise. I believe the same patient approach will be taken in his comeback this week. The Eagles will likely look to limit his movement and the passing game as a whole. While Went does not lose value in a good matchup with the Colts, he is a risky play with questions about how much the team will use him. Look for Wentz to deliver low-end QB1 to high-end QB2 points.
Running Back
Stud
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals: Bernard has massive upside this week, as he will take over as the lead back this week with Joe Mixon out. He should easily get 15+ carries and will be the Bengals’ only backfield receiving threat. Bernard should also see a consolidation of red zone work that could translate into one or more touchdowns. In the last six games that Mixon has been sidelined, Bernard has averaged 112 total yards-per-game — including a 168 total-yard outburst against the Lions. The Bengals play the Panthers this week, which is usually not a good matchup, but a running back with Bernard’s skill set and workload should be able to produce high-end RB2 numbers. Bernard also has a chance to sneak into RB1 territory if he gets enough passing work, especially in PPR leagues.
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons: Coleman is in a similar situation as Bernard, as he is taking over for injured starter Devonta Freeman. Coleman rushed for 107 yards on 16 carries. He will look for an increase in carries in his second week as the lead back. Coleman is the prototypical NFL dual-threat back, as he is a proficient pass catcher as well as a great runner. The Falcons will face a Saints team that has been gashed by the Bucs and the Browns in the past two weeks. Coleman should see upwards of 20 touches in this game. It should be a high-scoring affair, which means Coleman should see heavy usage in the passing game. Expect high-end RB2 numbers from Coleman this week (and until Freeman returns).
Dud
Derrick Henry/Dion Lewis, Tennessee Titans: The Titans backfield has started off the season very slow. Henry has not surpassed 60 yards in either game so far. Lewis did surpass 100 yards of total offense in their first game, but followed that up with a 43-yard dud showing in Week 2. The Titans may be without star QB Marcus Mariota, which would put a dent in their offensive outlook. The team will also be facing the best defense in the league when they travel to Jacksonville. Look for the Titans to trail for most of the game and limiting the amount of carries that both players get. Henry offers little-to-no receiving value, which makes him a low-end flex option at best. Lewis does have the upside of 5+ catches, which means that he could produce high-end flex numbers — if given enough touches. Overall, neither back should be started with confidence.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings: Thielen and the Vikings will face Buffalo this week in a game that should get out of hand quickly. The Bills have been blown out in their first two games this season, managing a combined score of 78-23. The Bills are rapidly turning into one of, if not the worst team in the NFL. The Vikings offense, meanwhile, has been explosive in their first two games. Thielen has averaged over 116 yards per game with 18 receptions through Week 2. This gives him one of the highest floors in fantasy right now. Thielen should be good for 7-8 receptions against Buffalo. Expect mid to high-end WR1 numbers from the Vikings WR.
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears: Robinson caught 10 passes in the Bears’ Week 2 win over Seattle and was looked to often as the focal point of the offense. Despite managing only 83 yards, Robinson’s reception volume shows the Bears’ desire to get the talented receiver more involved in the offense. In Week 3, Chicago faces a Cardinals team that’s only made it to the red zone twice all season. This mismatch should allow the Bears to dominate time of possession and provide Robinson with plenty of targets. Fantasy owners should expect at least six receptions – and likely improved yardage – as Robinson will look to shred one of the NFL’s worst defenses. The Bears want Trubisky to be successful this season — and getting the ball in Robinson’s hands should do just that. The Cardinals secondary allowed 159 yards to the Rams’ top receiver, Brandin Cooks, in Week 2. Look for high-end WR2 to low-end WR1 numbers from Robinson this week, with additional upside in PPR formats.
Dud
Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon: The Pats’ receiving corps took a nose dive in fantasy production with the recent arrival of Josh Gordon. While the trade will help Gordon’s fantasy value in the long term, he is unlikely to see heavy usage in his first outing as a Patriot. Hogan’s outlook certainly does not look much better going forward, as he will be competing directly with Gordon for targets. It is unknown how much Gordon will play this weekend, which clouds the status of both receivers. Hogan did deliver a solid performance last week, putting up two touchdowns against the league’s best defense. This is not reflective of his overall production, however, as Hogan has managed just four receptions in two games. This does not bode well for Hogan this week – or for the coming weeks – as Gordon’s arrival will soon be followed by the return of Julian Edelman. Look for low-end flex production from both players in the Patriots’ matchup against Detroit.
Tight End
Stud
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings: Rudolph is in the same boat as Adam Thielen, as the Vikings will be playing one of the worst defenses in Buffalo. The Vikings also lost RB Dalvin Cook to injury this week vacating additional targets that should be distributed throughout the offense. A multi-touchdown game is not out of the realm of possibility for Rudolph. He has eight receptions and a touchdown on the season and will look to increase those numbers against Buffalo’s woeful secondary. This Bills defense will also be playing without cornerback Vontae Davis, who retired at halftime during last week’s loss to the Chargers. This could be Rudolph’s easiest matchup all season — and should be the matchup he needs to explode. Expect mid-tier TE1 numbers, at worst.
Dud
Evan Engram, New York Giants: Engram has had a very poor start to the season. He has nine catches through Week 2, but his only touchdown so far came in garbage time against the Cowboys. Eli Manning has been nothing short of awful this season and the Giants offense has stagnated as a result. The Giants face the Texans in Week 3, which does not bode well for Engram’s production. The Texans D has been decent this season and will likely look to shut down the Giants passing game. Expect high to mid-range TE2 numbers.
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