NFL
TSJ’s 2018 AFC West Division Preview
While not always housing the best teams, the AFC West is always competitive. In each of the last three seasons, the second-placed team finished just one game behind first. Last year was maybe the most exciting yet, as the Chargers attempted to overtake the Chiefs as divisional champs. A late season push by L.A. – going 9-3 down the stretch – was not enough, as they finished second and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs opened strong, winning their first 5 games. However, the Chiefs then lost six of their next seven games before winning their last four. That left the Chiefs at 10-6, which turned out to be enough to win the division. The Raiders and Broncos never posed any true threat — finishing 6-10 and 5-11, respectively. It once again looks to be a two-team race between the Chiefs and Chargers, but anything can happen.
Los Angeles Chargers
2017-18 Finish: 2nd
Projected 2018-19 Finish: 1st
Key Additions:
Forrest Lamp, Mike Pouncey, Caleb Sturges
Key Losses:
Jason Verrett, Hunter Henry, Tre Boston, Chris McCain
Why they can win the AFC West:
If all that mattered in football was talent, the Chargers would win by a landslide. Phillip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, and Keenan Allen are, by far, the best offensive trio in the division. The Chargers should also finally have a stable offensive line for the first time in a while. 2017’s second-round guard Forrest Lamp and center Mike Pouncey will join an already improving unit. Defense, however, is where the Chargers really excel. They have one of the best pass rushes in the league lead by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. The two combined for 23 sacks — the third highest number between two teammates in the league. They combine with one of the best secondaries in the league. The Chargers cornerback corps is a nightmare for opposing offenses. The unit is led by Casey Hayward, whose 2017-18 season was the second-highest rated ever for a cornerback on Pro Football Focus. Beside him are Desmond King and Trevor Williams, two Pro Bowl-caliber corners. This unit allowed just 197 yards-per-game, third in the league. In this era of the NFL, pass defense is one of the most important parts of the game and the Chargers excel at it. If it all comes together, the Chargers won’t just be challenging for the division — they’ll be challenging for the Super Bowl.
Why they won’t win the AFC West:
The annual Chargers injury bug has already returned. Tight end Hunter Henry and cornerback Jason Verrett have already suffered season-ending injuries. Both were expected to have big roles this year. Hunter Henry, specifically, was expected to take a big step forward and become a primary passing target. The Chargers will have to improve their run defense to compete. They were dead last in yards allowed per carry and second-to-last in yards allowed per game.
Kansas City Chiefs
2017-18 Finish: 1st
Projected 2018-19 Finish: 2nd
Key Additions:
Kendall Fuller, Sammy Watkins
Key Losses:
Tamba Hali, Alex Smith, Marcus Peters
Why they can win the AFC West:
The Chiefs have the best rushing attack in the division. Their backfield is led by breakout 2017 rookie Kareen Hunt, who led the league in rushing yards. Hunt was also top five in yards-per-carry and rushing yards per game. Hunt gave the Chiefs a massive edge over the Chargers, who had the worst rush defense in the league. Without Hunt, the Chiefs surely wouldn’t have won the division. The Chiefs also field wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who may be the fastest player in the NFL. Hill finished just outside the top five in receiving yards per game last year. Speaking of speedy receivers, the Chiefs also signed Sammy Watkins. Watkins is a second true target, something the Chiefs have lacked. His presence should take pressure off of Hill. Moreover, with passing the Chiefs have Travis Kelce — perhaps the league’s best tight end. Kelce was first in tight end receptions and second in receiving yards and touchdowns. On defense, the Chiefs get safety Eric Berry back after missing last season to an Achilles tendon rupture. Berry may be the best player in the division and will be a massive boost to the Chiefs’ ailing pass defense.
Why they won’t win the AFC West:
The two biggest reasons the Chiefs could struggle to repeat are the losses of Alex Smith and Marcus Peters. Alex Smith was traded to the Redskins for cornerback Kendall Fuller and a third-round draft pick. While this is by no means a bad deal, the Chiefs have no one in place to replicate Smith’s production. Second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be Smith’s replacement. Mahomes is very mobile and his arm strength is incredible, but his accuracy is concerning. Mahomes has thrown eight interceptions in seven training camp practices. Peters will also be difficult to replace. Kendall Fuller is very good, but nowhere near Marcus Peters’ level. Peters allowed the 5th lowest passer rating when targeted and was fifth in the NFL in interceptions. Peters also allowed only 409 yards in coverage on the year. Even with Peters’ high numbers, the Chiefs were 29th in passing yards allowed per game. With that trade, it’s hard to see how that stat improves — and the Chiefs really need it to.
Denver Broncos
2017-18 Finish: 4th
Projected 2018-19 Finish: 3rd
Key Additions:
Case Keenum, Tramaine Brock
Key Losses:
Aqib Talib, Virgil Green
Why they can win the AFC West:
The Broncos may still boast the league’s best defense. Led by Von Miller, Denver finished top 5 in fewest rushing and passing yards allowed per game. These numbers should be maintained next year, as the Broncos only lost one defensive starter in Aqib Talib. While losing Talib will hurt, the Broncos still have the superior Chris Harris Jr. and have Bradley Roby as a solid replacement. The Broncos also finished third in the league in sacks last year with 52. Despite this, they drafted Bradley Chubb, the best pass rusher in college football in 2017. With Chubb in the fold, the defense should get even better. If the Broncos get any kind of offensive production, they have a (small) shot at the division title.
Why they won’t win the AFC West:
For the Broncos, the problem area is 100% on the offensive side of the ball. They finished an abysmal 27th in the league in points per game and haven’t done much to suggest improvement. Case Keenum is much better than Trevor Siemian no doubt, but he’ll likely look like a fluke in retrospect. In Minnesota, Keenum was behind a good offensive line and throwing to two of the top 10 receivers in the NFL. The Broncos have no o-line and their top wide receiver is an aging Demaryius Thomas. It’s safe to say Keenum will face regression production-wise. On top of that, the Broncos have absolutely no run game. They rightfully cut C.J. Anderson, though somehow managed to come out worse off for it. They’ll likely end up starting Royce Freeman, their third-round pick this year. Freeman is talented but is still an untested third-round rookie! He’s simply not ready for that kind of role. Receiver-wise, they have the aforementioned Demaryius Thomas as well as Emmanuel Sanders. Both have seen much better days and, simply put, neither are good enough to be number-one options. The Broncos will get some wins this year, but they’ll most likely be taking a top ten draft pick again in 2019.
Oakland Raiders
2017-18 Finish: 3rd
Projected 2018-19 Finish: 4th
Key Additions:
Derrick Johnson, Tahir White, Jordy Nelson, Rashaan Melvin
Key Losses:
NaVorro Bowman
Why they can win the AFC West:
There really isn’t much to say here. However, the Raiders do have the best player in the division in superstar defensive end Khalil Mack. Also, Amari Cooper is still only 24 years old and should bounce back in a big way in Jon Gruden’s system.
Why they can’t win the AFC West:
Let me preface by saying this: the Raiders have absolutely no chance to win this division. They simply don’t have anywhere near enough talent. They were 25th in rushing yards per game last season, yet held onto an aging Marshawn Lynch. Oakland finished 16th in passing yards per game and didn’t bring back their most productive receiver, Michael Crabtree. Crabtree is 30 years old, though, so letting him walk would’ve made good sense if they had a replacement. They didn’t, however, opting to replace him with 33 year-old Jordy Nelson, which makes absolutely no sense. For QB, Derek Carr is actually pretty good when he has protection and decent pieces around him. This year he will have neither. The situation on defense isn’t any better, either. The team finished 20th in points allowed per game, 26th in passing yards per game, and 23rd in total yards allowed per game. Unless Gruden is truly a coaching genius, there’s just no way this team competes in 2018.
AFC West Superlatives
Most likely to have a break out year:
Patrick Mahomes || Kansas City Chiefs || Quarterback
With Alex Smith traded to Washington, Patrick Mahomes has now been handed the keys to run the Chiefs’ offense. Accuracy is a concern, but Mahomes has a cannon arm and is extremely mobile. His supporting cast will offer huge help as well. Running back Kareem Hunt, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and tight end Travis Kelce are all top options at their positions. For Mahomes and the Chiefs, all the pieces are there for a successful season.
Rookie most likely to make immediate impact:
Derwin James || Los Angeles Chargers || Safety
Derwin James was surely expected get picked in the top ten of the 2018 NFL Draft, but he somehow fell to the Chargers at 17. James is an exceptional talent and capable of lining up in multiple places in the secondary. He is also capable of covering both running backs and tight ends in man coverage, a big upside in today’s NFL. Safety was a massive need for the Chargers, which means opportunities won’t be hard to come by for James. The Chargers already fielded one of the league’s best secondaries without James, so he’ll have a great supporting cast in Los Angeles. James checks all the boxes you’d want a safety to, so it’s more of a “when” than an “if” when it comes to his emergence.
Player most likely to see a big uptick in production:
Amari Cooper || Oakland Raiders || Wide Receiver
Cooper had a bad season in 2017, plain and simple. Amari is just 24 years old, however, and still extremely talented. The Raiders’ offense is getting an overhaul by head coach Jon Gruden, which is good news for Cooper. Gruden likes to pass and Cooper is the clear number-one target. The volume and talent are there for Amari Cooper, which should be enough.
Player most likely to face regression in production:
Tyreek Hill || Kansas City Chiefs || Wide Receiver
The Chiefs traded Alex Smith and will be starting second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes this season. While Mahomes has loads of talent and potential, he isn’t ready to replace the production of Alex Smith. Starting an unproven sophomore at QB means the Chiefs will likely lean on the run game and stud running back Kareem Hunt. Tight end Travis Kelce is the number one target and the security blanket in the passing game, so his production shouldn’t take a huge hit. All of this points to Tyreek Hill’s opportunities and volume taking a huge hit. There’s just no way Hill sees the same number of targets as last year, especially with Sammy Watkins joining the KC receiving corps. Fewer targets means less receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and production across the board. It’s not that Hill is going to get worse, he just simply won’t have the chances like he did last season.
