Analysis and Prediction
World Cup 2018: Football With Graph Theory
Amidst all the buzz of the World Cup and even during the course of the club football season, analyzing and predicting results of fixtures among fans and pundits alike is very common. This article will highlight how a few simple mathematical concepts can help understand a game better. It will also demonstrate how simple data can be used to make pretty accurate predictions. Football with graph theory is a very innovative concept.
In math, graph theory is basically the study of graphs. Graphs are mathematical structures. They are used to model relations between objects, events etc. A graph consists of vertices, nodes or points connected by lines or arcs.
If you study a game of football very minutely and apply certain principles of graph theory to it then you can easily estimate the possible results of future matches played by any given team.
Technicalities of football with graph theory:
Each pass or cross can be imagined as an edge. You can consider each player as a node/vertex. To study this you can use pass maps for any team and any game from OPTA.
- If we study the number of passes completed by a team in a game, we can find the weight of each node (player). This allows us to observe which team is stronger at play-making.
- Teams with higher weight at the mid-level nodes (midfielders) indicate strong build-up play.
- Teams with a lesser number of revisited nodes indicate more positive build-up play. Thus, this shows that there is not too much redundant passing. This showcases productive attacking potential.
- Minimal loops mean a high press build-up.
- The direction of edges(passes) should ideally be towards the opposition goal on as many occasions as possible. Also, this indicates that a team is attacking more and making more forward passes.
Conclusion:
After studying these parameters we can make a much more accurate prediction about a result instead of a blind guess. But that being said, ultimately football is very unpredictable as this year’s World Cup is proving and nothing can be guaranteed. But even so it is always better to make an educated guess.
