NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Take First Next Gen Victory at Michigan International Speedway?
Michigan International Speedway is the next battleground for the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series. The two-mile oval offers all manufacturers a chance at taking home the Michigan Heritage Trophy; Ford has won it the last seven times. Several past Michigan winners are either winless so far this year, or need a win for Playoff bonus points. Here are some contenders heading into the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Ryan Blaney
The most recent winner at Michigan, Ryan Blaney is in desperate need of another victory. Still winless in 2022, Blaney is second in points, but far from locked into the Playoffs. While performance wise the 12 is a title-level threat, a few surprise winners could leave him outside looking in after 26 weeks. The Penske car was among the top contenders just last week at Indianapolis, only to be wrecked on a late restart. The effort and speed is there for Blaney, the execution is merely lacking slightly.
A year ago at Michigan, Blaney got by the dominant Hendrick cars on a late restart to steal the victory. The Penske 12 would very much love a repeat of this performance, as they want to secure their spot in the 2022 Playoffs. If not a win though, Blaney must score a lot of points in Michigan to retain his second-place spot in the regular season standings.
Kevin Harvick
Nobody’s been better at Michigan in recent times than Kevin Harvick. The last six trips to Michigan feature four wins for the 4, including three-consecutive. Entering 2022’s race at 17th on the Playoff grid, it will take another win to have Harvick leapfrog into the 16-man postseason. Closing in fast on the two-year anniversary of his last win, can Harvick get another victory under this intense pressure?
“You can have a baseline interpretation,” Harvick said on his recent Michigan success. “But it seems to have migrated in a number of different directions at different racetracks and different scenarios this year just because of the different characteristics that come with the car. Places that we haven’t been, you just don’t really know where it’s going to go. You go to some of these places, I think Darlington is a good example, where California, Darlington, places that have been super rough, have been really difficult to navigate in traffic, and even by yourself sometimes, because of the way that the cars bounce around.”
Harvick must race the rest of the regular season with a must-win mindset if he is to make the Playoffs. Michigan may just be the best shot the 4 has left at finding victory lane, as he chases a sixth Michigan checkered flag.
Kyle Larson
Can two-mile Kyle Larson show up again this weekend? Larson’s lone win so far in 2022 came on Michigan’s sister track at Auto Club, so the 5 is looking to sweep both races. Larson’s first career win came at Michigan in 2016; he backed that up with both wins in 2017 for three-straight at MIS. Larson’s last two attempts at Michigan both ended with a third-place result, he hopes to find victory lane again on Sunday.
“I feel like the runs haven’t been quite as big as they were earlier in the year,” Larson said. “I’m sure we will be able to draft, but the runs were huge at California. I don’t know if they’ll be quite that big at Michigan, and there will be less lane options when you get to the corner this weekend (compared to Auto Club Speedway).”
Larson did pace the field for 70 laps in last year’s Michigan race, as three Hendrick cars took turns out front that day. Still searching for a second win in 2022, Larson has to be seen as a favorite heading into one of his best tracks.
Joey Logano
Another three-time Michigan winner, Joey Logano aims for a fourth win Sunday. Amazingly, all of Logano’s Michigan wins have come from the pole. Should the 22 qualify P1, then the field should be worried. Indy marked Logano’s first top-10 in five weeks, so this Penske team hopes to build upon some momentum. Five of the last seven Michigan races have seen Logano in the top-10, including a win from 2019. The 22 has been a very odd team this season. Both of Logano’s wins came after lackluster performances. With that in mind, the 22 could get the 2022 hat-trick victory in Michigan. Logano hopes to deliver Ford their eighth-straight win from the Irish Hills.
Denny Hamlin
While he’s winless here since 2011, Denny Hamlin has trended upward recently at Michigan. Four of the last five Michigan races have seen the 11 in the top-10, with two runner-up results. Trying to move on from the Pocono DQ two weeks ago and a lackluster Indianapolis, how does Hamlin feel coming into this weekend?
“I expect it to be a pretty wild Michigan race like we normally see,” Hamlin said. “It’ll be interesting to see how this car fares and how much throttle we’ll be able to carry, but I do expect that we will be lifting and hopefully we can move around a little bit. Michigan is a fun racetrack that provides you some opportunities as far as where you want to run, so I think it has the potential to be a good race.”
If the 11 brings similar speed shown just two weeks ago at Pocono, then Hamlin could be tough to beat in Michigan. Trying to pad his Playoff berth, a third win on the 2022 season would put Hamlin as the second seed.
Chase Elliott
Michigan is perhaps the best track for Chase Elliott he has yet to win on. Elliott’s first three trips here all ended with a second-place finish, with only one race outside of the top-10 in 11 career starts. Driver 9 also led a career-best 68 laps in 2021, only to come home eighth. Still riding high as the points leader, Elliott was in contention for last week’s Indianapolis win before being taken out late. Can the Hendrick 9 car regroup and check another track off the winless list?
“You have to be at the top of your game heading into the Playoffs,” Elliott said. “We can’t let setbacks like last week get to us. We have to keep focusing on what we can control and having good execution and just keep improving. I need to make sure I’m doing my job inside the car. Those are the things we’re focusing on to make sure we’re peaking at the right time.”
Elliott’s run of five-straight top-two results did end at Indy, due to a late restart spin. Coming back to a traditional oval, Elliott is one of the favorites again. At a track where his dad won seven times, Chase could add onto the Elliott family legacy Sunday at Michigan.
As is the case with every new track this year, nobody quite knows how the Next Gen car will race at Michigan. Will we see a repeat winner this weekend? Can Michigan give a 15th winner in 2022? Will someone visit Michigan’s victory lane for the first time, or will a past MIS winner repeat? Find out Sunday in the FireKeepers Casino 400, at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Logan Riely/Getty Images for NASCAR
