NASCAR
Playoff Battles at top and bottom of Standings with 3 Regular Season Races Left
Both ends of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff standings are tight entering the final three regular season races. Atop the points currently, both Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are tied for the regular season championship. The 15 all-important bonus points that milestone achievement rewards are up for grabs between perhaps the hottest and unluckiest drivers of the year.
Meanwhile, the bottom of the top 16 are about a dead heat between two teammates. Both Richard Childress Racing cars are fighting amongst each other for the final postseason spot. Also sitting quietly ahead of them is Kevin Harvick, who is still winless on the 2021 campaign. Heading into another road course race at Indianapolis, drama is pegged at both ends of the Playoff spectrum.
Kyle Larson (Tied for Regular Season Championship Lead)
By virtue of his fifth win of 2021 last week at Watkins Glen, Kyle Larson erased a 13-point deficit he had to Denny Hamlin. The 5 and the 11 are now tied at 917 points apiece for the regular season title. The contrast for each driver’s seasons cannot be more stark; Larson has five wins while Hamlin has none. Already racing with the number one seed as the winningest driver on the year, Larson is eyeing a massive points cushion if he should gap Hamlin. However, this battle will conclude at Daytona in a few weeks, a track that does not benefit Larson.
“[Hamlin’s] so good at Daytona, too,” Larson said after Watkins Glen. “So it would be nice to get a couple good weeks and get that point lead because I know he’s going to go there, and anything can happen at Daytona but I know he’s going to go there and he’s going to get Stage points and he’s going to challenge for the win.”
“I know he’s looking at me as the same. If he could go into Daytona being even or ahead, he’s going to feel like he’s got the advantage. I’d like to have a good couple weeks before we get there and give us a little bit of wiggle room.”
Tight Battle Keeping Larson, Hamlin Sharp
“Say he still had an 80-point lead or something. You could get lazy and not care as much and make mistakes; whether it be make a dumb move on restart or speed on pit road, which we’ve both done a few weeks ago. But now it’s like every point matters to get those five extra bonus points.”
“Yeah, I think keeping your mind strong and sharp through the regular season is important to where you don’t have to just flip a switch now when it comes Playoff time and who knows if you’re mentally there. But I think for him and I both, we’ve been mentally there for a while now. Yeah, so I think come the Playoffs time, we’ll just keep on doing what we’ve been doing, and hopefully we’ll find ourselves in the Final Four.”
Since Dover in May, a span of 10 races, Larson has made up 134 points on Hamlin. The next two weeks certainly favor the 5. Larson will go for another road course win at Indy and also a fourth Michigan victory. However, Daytona will definitely tip the balance to Hamlin’s corner. Can Larson build up enough of a points gap to stay ahead of the 11?
Denny Hamlin (+302)
Arguably the most consistent driver all season, Denny Hamlin has 16 top-10s and a series-best 8.5 average finish through 23 races. Only now has he lost sole command of the points lead he has held since week two. The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 team has put all their effort on taking the regular season championship. At one time they held a 101-point gap over second place. All of that advantage is now gone though; Hamlin loses the tiebreaker to Larson due to win total. Hamlin needs to simply stay in striking distance at both Indy and Michigan, then set his sights on Daytona as a chance to capitalize.
“It’s going to be a battle all the way to the end I think,” Hamlin said. “Really proud of our effort [at Watkins Glen]. We passed, had to be the most cars. We were really, really fast all day. Proud of this whole FedEx Express team. We’ve come a long way on the road courses. I thought we had equal pace with the 5 (Kyle Larson), especially on the long run. Obviously, we made an extra stop there for whatever reason. It’s an encouraging day when we can be as competitive as what we were.”
If the Playoffs were to start today, Denny Hamlin would be the eighth seed. Winning the regular season championship and those 15 bonus points could vault the 11 to fourth, even without a win this year. Execution, circumstances, and plain old bad luck have kept the 11 out of victory lane numerous times this season. They have the speed and performance to win, but simply cannot close out an entire race. How the regular season title fight shakes out will absolutely influence the championship, as Hamlin’s Playoff seeding is at stake.
Kevin Harvick (+95)
Sitting in the midst of both Playoff point battles is the 4 of Kevin Harvick. Harvick is tied with Hamlin and Larson for a series-high 16 top-10s. An 11.1 average finish also has him 95 points above the cut line. Coming off two-straight top-10s, is the 4 building momentum at the right time to be dangerous?
While learning a new course at Indy will throw everyone for a challenge, Harvick must see Michigan in a few weeks as prime time to strike. Driver No. 4 has five Michigan wins, including four of the last five trips to the two-mile oval. If Harvick leaves Michigan still winless, then he is at risk of entering the Playoff already in a hole. Currently the 4 is the 15th seed out of 16. Can Harvick build more momentum in the closing weeks of the regular season, and perhaps nab that elusive win?
Tyler Reddick (+15)
The No. 8 team of sophomore driver Tyler Reddick is doing everything right to mount a Playoff appearance on points. At 12th in points, four of the last five races have seen Reddick earn a top 10. This included Watkins Glen, where the 8 finished 10th. This marked Reddick’s third road course top 10 of the year, as he guns for a fourth at Indy. This top 10 also allowed Reddick to extend his points cushion over teammate Austin Dillon, as it grew from five to 15 points. Things are trending upwards for the 8 car, as the California driver goes for his first Playoff appearance. However, Dillon has not been very far off of his teammate, especially in recent weeks.
“It’s good that we were able to leave the track with another top-10 finish to help us with the Playoff cutline,” Reddick said. “I wish we were able to finish a little higher up, but we will have a good shot next week to show what we can do at another road course. There’s no other group I’d rather be fighting with to make the Playoffs, and I know they’ll all continue to fight through the coming weeks.”
Any stumble over the next three weeks could see Reddick lose the final Playoff position to his teammate. Without winning, only one RCR car will make the Playoffs. The next three weeks will surely be a back-and-forth battle to see which one makes the cut.
Austin Dillon (-15)
The biggest loser of recent wins by Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon has gone from solidly in to out of the Playoffs. After winning his way into the postseason a year ago, it may take a similar effort now for the 3. Dillon has minimized any major points deficit by being in the top 20 in all but one of the last 17 races. However, he still lost ground to Tyler Reddick by placing 15th at Watkins Glen.
Dillon Still Calm in Playoff Hunt
“I’ve been pretty calm, really, about it,” Dillon said. “I know the situation I’m in. It’s unfortunate the amount of winners that we’ve had this year. I feel like we’d be well in a safe place right now, but we’re not. It’s just the situation we’re in and we’re racing our teammate. But I’m pretty confident after being on the SIM a couple of weeks at Indy. I usually don’t pick-up the road courses on the simulator very fast, but for some reason, Indy came to me pretty quick, which is good, I think, for what we’re going into. I think qualifying is the biggest thing on my mind right now for this coming weekend and getting a good qualifying position, because I know how important, the way it is, it’s so hard to pass on all these road courses that get strung out, that starting position matters.
Chipping Away at Points Debt
“So, I’m putting a lot of focus into qualifying and trying to make sure that we start up front and give ourselves the best way to get points. We have a 15-point gap right now and if we can maintain or gain a little this weekend, I feel like the next two weeks are good tracks for us and we’ll be in a pretty decent situation going into Daytona, if it is a points game.
“Obviously, I’d like to lock ourselves in with a win and just don’t want any new winners. That would really put us out. So yeah, I’m in a pretty good calm situation as far as my mental state. I’ve been working out and am ready to go race and see what it brings us. I think we have been very consistent this year. We just haven’t had the speed that we want at some of these tracks, but the road course stuff has been fun. It’s such an improvement for me that I’d love to go back to some of these road courses a second time with what I’ve learned this year.”
Reason for Optimism in 3 Camp
If Indy is mistake-free for Dillon, he does have some reason for optimism. The last two stops in the regular season are at two of Dillon’s best tracks: Michigan and Daytona. Dillon boasts five Michigan top-10s as well as eight at Daytona. Dillon was also in contention for the Daytona 500 win earlier this season, as he placed third. The 3 team needs to simply escape Indy without any major errors to remain in the points conversation. Both Michigan and Daytona will be great chances for Austin Dillon to earn another victory.
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff battle is anything but set in stone. The regular season championship is still very much up for grabs; as are the final three spots in the Round of 16. The next three weeks are sure to see many drivers put it all on the line in their last chances for championship contention. An all-new circuit this weekend at the Indianapolis Road Course could see a surprise winner, as could the last two races at Michigan and Daytona.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
