NASCAR
After Elimination, Will No Playoff Pressure Lead to a 12th Dover Win for Jimmie Johnson?
Despite being eliminated from championship contention, last week was the best race of 2018 for Jimmie Johnson. The 48 was within a few hundred yards of winning, a position he has not been in all season long. No longer championship eligible, will the 48 capitalize again at Dover, this time with no Playoff pressure?
Johnson’s Hall-of-Fame Stats at Dover
To put it simply, Dover is one of Jimmie Johnson’s favorite racetracks. Dover is also Jimmie’s most successful venues on the circuit. Johnson is the leader in nearly every stat at Dover, as the concrete surface greatly suits his driving style. In 33 career starts at the Monster Mile, Johnson has 11 wins, more than any other driver in history. Johnson’s most recent win came at Dover, in June of 2017. When Johnson isn’t winning at Dover, he is not too far from it. Jimmie has 17 top 5s, 24 top 10s, and an average finish of 9th in the First State. When adding these stats to his 3,105 laps led, Dover seems like Jimmie’s playground.
At this point in years past, Jimmie has gone to Dover looking to contend for the title. However, no Playoff pressure means the 48 can go to their best track with nothing to lose.
Recent Gains for Hendrick Performance
In the 3 Playoff races so far, Jimmie and the 48 have had a level of speed and execution not previously seen in 2018. This has rubbed off onto the 88 car, who is still in the title fight.
At Las Vegas, Jimmie was in contention for a top 10 or better until a late race incident. Richmond was a quiet but consistent night for the 48, finishing 8th. Lastly, the Charlotte Roval saw Jimmie come as close to victory lane as he’s been all year. With their team trending in the right direction, the 48 could play spoiler in the Playoffs.
Realistic Expectations Without Playoff Pressure
Since the advent of the elimination Playoffs in 2014, the 48 has only won 1 race while not contending for the title. That lone win came at Texas in 2014, with eventual champion Kevin Harvick right behind him. The 12 drivers still in the postseason and dealing with the Playoff pressure are all very capable drivers who could win Dover. In spite of this, recent speed from the 48 has to make one consider them a threat at Dover. In the last 5 Dover Playoff races, Jimmie has 4 top 10s, including a win in 2013. While the 48 is far from a favorite this weekend, a top 10 run should be capable for this team.
Jimmie Johnson and the 48 team have yet to go an entire season without winning a race. This winning streak of 16 years date back to Johnson’s rookie year of 2002. While an 8th championship may not come in 2018, a win to continue this streak is still possible. With nothing to lose at Dover, no Playoff pressure may even be a benefit to the 48 team. Be sure to catch Sunday’s Gander Outdoors 400 to see if Jimmie Johnson can return to his winning ways.
