MLB
Well, it all comes down to this for the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago Cubs – win or go home. While both clubs likely still feel the pain of losing their respective division tiebreakers, they will need to put it behind them, and quickly. Colorado was dominated by the Dodgers’ young fireballer Walker Buehler in a 5-2 loss, while Chicago could not solve Jhoulys Chacin or the stellar Brewers bullpen and fell 3-1. Both teams get a second shot, as Colorado travels to Chicago for the NL Wild Card game, starting at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN2. What must the Rockies do to pull off the upset?
Rockies’ keys to the game
- Scoring first. Might seem obvious, but the starting pitching will dictate who moves on. Lester has a ton of post-season experience and has pitched in multiple World Series. While Freeland will be in his first postseason game, and first win-or-go-home game, this will be Lester’s third such start. Colorado is 56-17 when scoring first this year, so jumping on Lester quickly will be paramount.
- Torment Lester on the basepaths. The Cubs’ veteran starter has a reputation for excellent pitching, but is also notorious for the yips. Lester is infamous for never making pickoff throws, and for struggling to field and throw to bases. If the Rockies can work some walks, get some infield hits – whatever it takes to get on base, they can take advantage of perhaps Lester’s only great weakness.
- Get to the bullpen quickly. The Rockies boast the third best bullpen in the NL since September 1, with a 2.98 ERA, behind only Milwaukee and the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Chicago has lost their closer Brandon Morrow for the year, and recently lost their fill-in closer Pedro Strop. Set-up man Carl Edwards has an ERA over 8 his last 7 appearances, and many other regulars are struggling as well. The bright spot has been Jesse Chavez, who already pitched two innings vs Milwaukee. If the Rockies can get Lester out after 5 or 6 innings, they’ll up their chances.
- Roll with your ace. Bud Black elected to go with his unquestioned ace and Cy-Young candidate Kyle Freeland on three days’ rest. Freeland has never started on short rest, but he’s been Colorado’s best pitcher all year, so the decision is an easy one. The Rockies have won 15 of Freeland’s last 17 starts – though he shockingly has been much better at home this year. Having him on the mound will give a boost to the entire club, and gives the Rockies their best chance at their first NLDS appearance since 2009.
Prediction
As a Rockies fan, this is tough. Freeland has been their best pitcher, and they’ve won 15 of his last 17 starts. While those odds are good, he is going on short rest. Plus, Lester has been here, done this. If this game was at Coors Field, I’d take the Rockies in a heartbeat. They hit much better at home, and Freeland is also a much better pitcher there. On the road, where the offense has often stalled – my gut says the Cubbies. I expect a relatively low scoring game, with the Cubs eking out a close one. Final score: Cubs 4, Rockies 2. Prove me wrong, guys. Please.
No seriously, please prove me wrong. I’m begging you. I’ll do anything.
Photo credit to Nightsurfing via Flickr
