NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will Find the Desert Mirage of Phoenix Victory Lane?
One of the most important stops of the 2025 NASCAR regular season is this weekend. America’s best stock car drivers head west to the desert diamond of Phoenix Raceway. Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 is an effective dress rehearsal for November’s winner-take-all championship finale. Who can set themselves up nicely for a winning drive in Arizona? Here are a few to watch out for around the uniquely-shaped mile of asphalt.
Ryan Blaney
Very few streaks remain perfect across NASCAR’s entire Next Gen era. In this three year span, Ryan Blaney has never been outside the top-five at Phoenix. Amazingly however, driver 12 is still 0-18 in his career here. This stretch includes finishing runner-up in his title-deciding race. Blaney’s last desert showing worse than 10th was in 2020. In short, the 2023 champ’s driving style fits to Phoenix Raceway like a glove. Blaney truly can never be counted out at this track. He leads all drivers Sunday with a 2.8 Next Gen average finish.
The Penske driver surprisingly failed to lead a lap across the last two spring Phoenix races, but has not been far off the top. Blaney is all but an assured bet for a banner day in the Valley of the Sun. He’s done everything but pull into victory lane here. Will the 19th time be the charm for Blaney?
Christopher Bell
The only man with better odds than Blaney for Phoenix is 2025’s red hot driver–Christopher Bell. The 2024 spring Phoenix winner enters Sunday undefeated over the last two weeks. 12 months ago, Bell was lights-out quick over the second half at Phoenix. He converted a Stage 2 win into a five-plus second margin of victory. This win also came after driving through the field twice. To sum it up, Bell left little doubt to who was fastest in town that day. This turned out to be one of the most dominant performances of 2024.
Despite not being in the Championship 4 last fall, Bell still paced Phoenix for a race-high 143 laps before finishing fifth. Can Bell pull off a three-peat and continue his electric 2025 start? Bell is trying to become the first man with three-straight wins in the Next Gen Car and the 18th to this feat in the Modern Era. If 2024 is any indication for this weekend, the 20 will be a tough one to beat.
William Byron
Another impressive Phoenix résumé belongs to Daytona 500 winner William Byron. Driver 24 won this race in 2023, and has four top-fives in the last five Phoenix trips. 18th last spring was Byron’s only blemish on an otherwise stellar recent run of Phoenix results. Being behind Penske competitors in November though, team 24 believes they have their work cut out for them this weekend.
“We definitely have some good momentum on our side and are really clicking and executing at a high level,” Byron said. “Last weekend showed that especially. We unloaded a little bit off in COTA but dialed it in by race time. Hopefully this weekend we unload closer to where we need to be and go from there. This is obviously a crucial track to gain any notes you can at.”
Byron’s made the last two Championship 4 races, but has been an afterthought in Phoenix’s closing laps. If Hendrick can find any advantage Sunday, it may pay off dividends for them in the fall. As a Playoff lock, Byron has the ability to experiment a bit with alternate setups or strategy calls. Do not be surprised if team 24 makes an off the cuff play to try and steal another win. Entering Phoenix as the points leader, Byron is positioned well for another breakout run.
Denny Hamlin
The series-best Phoenix average finish held by Ryan Blaney is closely trailed by Denny Hamlin (10.8). Can the veteran with nearly 1000 laps led here earn a third desert trophy? Hamlin led 68 laps in this race 12 months ago. This was a big part of a Toyota reign of terror that saw almost 300 circuits paced. Hamlin’s 11th-place finish this day does come with a bit of an asterisk, he spun racing for the lead inside of 100 laps left.
Ideally Hamlin will keep all four wheels pointed forward this time. Combined with Phoenix using Goodyear’s option tires, conservation might just favor Hamlin’s short track roots.
Kyle Larson
Another man who can never be overlooked at Phoenix, Kyle Larson calls the Arizona valley home. Capping off his blistering 2021 season with a tenth win and championship here, Larson’s struck out ever since on the desert mile. His best result since 2021 was third two years ago, but oddsmakers are taking a liking to driver 5. Much like Byron though, Larson is well aware that his team has room for improvement at the flat track.
“Based on where we finished in the past few finales, I think Hendrick Motorsports as a whole wants to improve at Phoenix,” Larson said. “We’ve had good runs and I know Cliff (Daniels) and everyone on the 5 team and Hendrick Motorsports are working hard so that we can take a step up in Phoenix.”
Kyle Larson is only batting .500 in even making the Championship 4 at Phoenix. Having not made the cut in 2024, history says this season should see Larson return to the finale. With that in mind, any sizable upgrade Hendrick can find here will be very valuable in eight months.
Joey Logano
Penske strength was on full display four months ago in Phoenix, when Joey Logano was crowned champion for the third time. Can the 22 potentially go back-to-back at one of his best tracks? Logano’s numbers in the spring race are more fleeting, but he does have a March win from 2020. Since Next Gen however, Logano’s only led four total laps in the championship precursor.
Team Penske did see all of their drivers collect wins on flat, short ovals across 2024. Logano’s likewise hoping to erase his odd year bad luck. Nowhere is this more doable than at Phoenix, where team 22 are always among the favorites.
Goodyear’s option tires return this weekend, making their first appearance since Richmond in August. That race saw a few surprising faces up front with the new X-factor, including its ultimate winner. Are we in store for a similar upset at Phoenix? The Shriners Children’s 500 (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) has the potential to be unlike any recent desert showdown. Whoever takes Sunday’s triumph will have summited a challenge as tall as Rattlesnake Hill.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
