NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Conquer Kansas Speedway?
Another mile-and-a-half track is on deck for NASCAR Cup Series competitors this weekend at Kansas Speedway. Toyotas are amazingly undefeated here in the Next Gen era. Both Chevrolet and Ford are gunning for that streak to end on Sunday however. Here are a few drivers to watch out for in the AdventHealth 400.
Denny Hamlin
The defending spring Kansas winner, Denny Hamlin enters this weekend going for a second straight 2024 victory as well. Coming off a dominant second half run at Dover, the No. 11 Toyota is seemingly firing on all cylinders. After predicting his Monster Mile win, Hamlin is less adamant about guaranteed success this time.
“I am not going to call my shot like I did last week, but I do feel good about Kansas,” Hamlin said. “We have had a lot of success there over the years, especially since I have worked with Chris (Gabehart, crew chief) and with the Next Gen car. We definitely go to Kansas with high expectations because we know what we’re capable of. It’s just a matter of putting the pieces together during the race to have a chance.”
If any Toyota driver is favored for a fifth straight Kansas win, it’s Denny Hamlin. Driver 11 boasts four heartland triumphs (most all time), including this race a year ago. Hamlin also has a top-five in the last five trips to Kansas, with laps led in both 2023 races. On his self-imposed quest for 60 career victories, Kansas is a prime chance at win number 55.
Kyle Larson
Despite Hamlin and Toyota domination, Kyle Larson still enters Kansas as the odds on favorite. Even with only one win here (2021), Kansas has become one of Larson’s most consistently great tracks. Across six Kansas races with Hendrick Motorsports, driver 5 has five top-10s and laps led in all but one event. Two of those races were also runner ups; the last two spring dates. To put it bluntly, Larson has Kansas circled as a place where winning is expected. The 5 team will try to join Hamlin and William Byron as multi-time 2024 winners.
“Kansas is a track where I’ve run well since my first trip there,” Larson said. “You can run the wall, which is the line I prefer. The tire fall off means you are searching all over the track for grip.”
If not for last lap contact from Hamlin a year ago, Larson is likely the Kansas winner with triple digit laps led. Kansas races very similar to Las Vegas, where Larson dominated in March. After playing second fiddle to Hamlin again last week, Kansas may be Larson’s time to shine.
Tyler Reddick
Kansas Speedway’s most recent winner is 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick. In September’s pivotal Playoff race, the No. 45 came in clutch on an overtime restart, only leading the final two laps and taking the victory. Aside from Hamlin last spring, all of Toyota’s Next Gen Kansas wins have been with 23XI’s No. 45 team, amazingly from three different drivers.
Reddick does have laps led in each of the last five Kansas races, yet last fall was his only top-five. Coming within eyesight of wins at similar intermediates Las Vegas and Texas, the 45 could be number one again when the checkers fall.
Martin Truex Jr
Another strong Toyota poised for a Kansas breakout run is the No. 19 of Martin Truex Jr. Prior to his early crash last fall, Truex had a run of eight straight Kansas top-10s. This did not include either of his wins, coming in a 2017 season sweep. While it’s been awhile since he tasted Kansas victory, Truex is well aware that this weekend could be big for his team.
“Building on what we’ve done so far this year, I feel like Kansas is one of those places that has always suited my style,” Truex said. “It’s a place you can move around, it gets really slick and there’s a lot of tire falloff. I really enjoy that. As good as our cars have been lately, I feel good about our chances that we’ll go there and have race-winning speed. And then it’s all about execution, which we are working on right now. If we can have a straightforward strategy race and good pit stops, I think we are going to be in the mix at Kansas, for sure.”
“I felt really good about our car there last year, but it didn’t last very long with the tire issue. Kansas is a really fun racetrack. It’s a place where you can move around. The tires wear out and it gets slippery. It’s just a fun place to race and we’re looking forward to it with our Auto-Owners Insurance Camry. At the same time, I think it’s a real measuring stick of your cars and where you’re at. It takes everything to get around there. You have to have horsepower and downforce, a good setup with a lot of tire grip and things like that. It’s a big challenge and usually the guys that have the fastest cars are up front there. So hopefully we’ll be one of those guys because it seems like our Camrys have been really strong this year.”
If not for late nose damage at Dover, Truex may have been on his way to a dominant win a week ago. The 19 is as fast as their teammate the 11, but are lacking in the luck department. Should this group execute a clean 400 miles Sunday, they may be the ones extending Toyota’s Kansas reign of terror.
Bubba Wallace
Perhaps no track on the circuit gives Bubba Wallace as much optimism as Kansas. Dating back to this race two years ago, Wallace has a win and three top-10s in the four Kansas Next Gen races. The only blip in that span was last fall, where he lost a tire while running second. After leading laps earlier that day, the No. 23 Toyota had to settle for a dismal 32nd-place showing.
Wallace has been an innocent bystander taken out by wrecks the last two weeks, after back-to-back top-10s. If anywhere is a keystone for a 23 team 2024 campaign turnaround, it’s Kansas. As said above, 23XI Racing owns three of the last four wins here, including Wallace’s most recent triumph in September 2022. Trying to lock the other half of his team into the Playoffs, Wallace’s odds are high at becoming 2024’s eighth different winner on Sunday.
Alex Bowman
For a longshot Kansas winning pick, Alex Bowman should not be overlooked. The Ally 48 driver has seven top-10s in his last 10 Kansas races, including three straight. The No. 48 Chevrolet also led over 100 laps here in the 2022 Playoff race, showing Next Gen ability. Bowman attributes his Kansas success to a far greater amount of reps on this technical track.
“Kansas was one of the first intermediate tracks I got to race at way back in ARCA,” Bowman said. “I got a lot of laps there and for whatever reason have been pretty naturally successful there right off the bat, even in the Cup car. Obviously we haven’t won there-but we’ve had a lot of good days there. I’m looking forward to getting back to Kansas. It’s a fun racetrack that I enjoy going to.”
Heading into race 12 of the year, Bowman is the lone winless Hendrick driver. Dover last week began a string of historically good tracks for Bowman. Do not be surprised to see him return to victory lane here or at one of the next few races.
Kansas marks the third traditional intermediate race of the year, and will be a dress rehearsal for September’s Round of 12 opener. The AdventHealth 400 goes green Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Can Kansas perhaps provide a third different winner across 1.5-mile tracks in 2024? Toyotas and Larson are heavily favored; just about anyone else winning would be an upset.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Sean Gardner/Getty Images
