NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will Tame the Monster Mile at Dover Motor Speedway?
High speeds, tight quarters, and attrition-filled racing are just a few things to expect this weekend at Dover Motor Speedway. The Monster Mile is ready to take a bite out of a few cars and possibly turn the Playoff picture on its head. Who are some drivers that have a chance at conquering this unique track? Here are a few winning contenders to watch out for in Sunday’s Würth 400.
Kyle Larson
Even with only one past Dover win, Kyle Larson still enters the weekend as the odds-on favorite. Larson’s lone Monster Mile victory came in the 2019 Playoffs, but he has two top-10s in his three starts since. 2021’s Dover race also included 263 laps led for the 5 car, before finishing second. Larson is more than eager to try and add another Miles the Monster trophy to his collection.
“I love going to Dover,” Larson said. “It’s a track where I have led a lot of laps, have a win and a lot of good finishes. Similar to Bristol, I like the concrete surface and it seems Hendrick Motorsports always has fast cars there.”
The only blemish in Larson’s Dover career at Hendrick was last year, where he was spun out early by Ross Chastain. If the 5 keeps it pointed forward, Larson should be well inside the top-five if not leading several laps again. Team 5 also trounces all competitors this year in stage points earned. It could be a long Sunday for 36 other drivers.
Martin Truex Jr
Defending Dover winner Martin Truex Jr took his fourth Monster Mile victory last year. Much like in 2024, Truex entered 2023’s Dover race winless on the season but with great consistency. Could the stars align again for the hometown hero? Dover has been the sight of many special moments for MTJ, but last year stood out with Truex brothers sweeping the weekend.
“The whole weekend was pretty special last year,” Truex said. “For Ryan (Truex) to finally get that first Xfinity win out of the way was really cool – at our home track and probably one of my favorite tracks was really neat. Look forward at having a shot at doing it again here this weekend with our Bass Pro Shops Camry.”
“Certainly experience is important there, it’s a difficult place. It’s concrete and is a lot different than what we do most other weeks. It seems to always be a place where you are guessing what the track is going to do on Sunday. I think the veterans probably understand the place more than many because we’ve seen it do different things over the years. We’ve had a good cars and a good team there and have been fortunate to have a lot of good runs at Dover.”
Dover is a track that suits veteran experience, with Truex trumping nearly everyone else in laps here. 33 career Monster Mile starts have led to 19 top-10s, 1069 laps led, and a 10.9 average finish for the New Jersey native. Bettors have Truex right up with Larson in terms of prerace favorite, a position that may very well play out in reality on track.
Ross Chastain
Nobody has been more consistent at Dover in the Next Gen car than Ross Chastain. While the Trackhouse Racing driver has not won here, the last two years have seen him finish third and second. Both of these outings also came with over 80 laps led. To put it bluntly, Chastain and the Next Gen car are a dynamic combination for Dover. A win here would be very special for the driver with plenty of memories both on and off track in Delaware.
“I ran my very first Cup race at Dover in the spring (2017) and I also raced the fall race there,” Chastain said. “Those were the only two Cup races I ran all year. I remember being scared to death because I didn’t think I was ready. I had a lot of encouragement to go ahead and do my first Cup race and sort of get it out of the way. I’m so glad I did it. Dover is like a third home to me after Florida and North Carolina. I’ve spent more time in Delaware than almost any other state.”
“I feel like concrete tracks have been really, really strong for us – Nashville and Dover. We’ve been fortunate to have super fast cars at concrete tracks.”
Chastain did put together a dominant win last summer on Dover’s sister concrete track in Nashville. Should Chastain remain mistake free this time, another banner day may be in store for the Trackhouse 1 team.
Denny Hamlin
After struggling at Dover for much of his career, Denny Hamlin has seemingly found the Monster Mile’s groove. Since his win here in 2020, the No. 11 Toyota has laps led in four of the last five races. This same span also has three top-10s for Hamlin. Hamlin heads into Sunday eyeing another strong chance at a win for Joe Gibbs Racing.
“Dover is a place I feel really good about,” Hamlin said. “Ever since I have been working with Chris (Gabehart, crew chief), we have been really fast at Dover and been in contention for wins every time we go. I expect us to go there this weekend with the same mentality. If we can execute throughout the race, we’re going to have a really good shot to lead laps and win the race.”
Hamlin was the dominant car here two years ago, until he lost a wheel leaving pit road. JGR has proven to be one of the teams to beat all season long. Hamlin’s experience should likewise pay dividends at Dover. While the 5 and 19 may have shorter odds, the 11 must not be overlooked as another betting favorite.
Chase Elliott
After Denny Hamlin fell out of contention two years ago, Chase Elliott dominated Dover’s second half. 2022 was Monster Mile win number two for driver 9, one of five top-fives in a seven race stretch at Dover. Now locked into the Playoffs thanks to his Texas triumph, Elliott is eager for another shot at building team chemistry up to championship-caliber once again.
“I think we work really well together,” Elliott said. “Everybody is driven to work for and with each other and push one another to be better. That’s a special thing and it’s really fun to be a part of. I hope that we can all stay together for a long time, but unfortunately, that’s just not how it works. We do have a really good group right now and I think we’re all really driven to make the very most of that while things are clicking.”
With a record 22 Dover victories, Hendrick Motorsports is seemingly always a contender on the concrete. Elliott and the Napa 9 team hope to keep momentum rolling with a second checkered flag.
William Byron
Amazingly the only Hendrick driver still winless at Dover is William Byron. Driver 24 does however boast four top-10s in nine Delaware starts, including fourth in three of the last four races. Byron also paced the field for nearly half the race a season ago, before fading late. The winningest driver of the season and the Next Gen era eyes adding another track to his win column.
“I love this race track,” Byron said. “It’s really fast and puts on a good race. You get good restarts with short runs and side-by-side racing. Then, there are times you get long runs where your car has to handle and adapt to the track taking rubber. As good as the racing is, it can be treacherous in practice and qualifying. You tend to see accidents and tire failures happen on Saturday because everyone’s car is so on edge. Last year, we had a really good car and I’m looking forward to improving on that this weekend.”
Five straight top-10s for Byron is tied with Tyler Reddick for series-best consistency entering Dover. Team 24 has been lights out on most tracks this season, but did face early setbacks at Bristol. Coming to the bigger, faster, and wilder concrete oval, Byron eyes retribution and a fourth win of 2024.
The two dominant teams of the season have combined for many past Dover wins. While the Hendrick and Gibbs veterans are favored, the chances are also high for a new winner this weekend. The Würth 400 goes green Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. The Monster Mile is sure to leave one team very happy with many others yearning for what could have been.
Written by Peter Stratta
Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X
Be sure to follow the writer on Twitter/X
Photo Credit to Sean Gardner/Getty Images
