NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Claim Victory on the Charlotte Roval?
One of the hardest to predict races is up next for the NASCAR Cup Series–the Charlotte Roval. The circuitous 2.28-mile 17 turn course has provided some of the biggest upset moments in recent memory. Playoff elimination also looms ahead for four drivers. Who can take the sixth running of the Bank of America Roval 400? Here are some favorites for the final road course race of 2023.
Kyle Larson
The Roval has been very much feast or famine for Kyle Larson. 2021 saw driver 5 earn a comeback victory after facing potential elimination. Last year’s Roval event was the end of Larson’s title defense, after hitting a wall late. Larson’s Roval history is also remembered for the inaugural race in 2018, where he limped his car across the finish line to advance by a point. As treacherous as it may be, Larson does still enjoy the many factors at play in this ultra-technical race.
“I like the Roval, I think it’s fun. It’s a sketchy cutoff race,” Larson said. “I feel like I’ve gotten caught up in more messes there than I have clean finishes. We did win there a couple of years ago, so I know we can have a good run again this weekend. We have just got to execute a little bit better than I did last year and try not to crash to make it to the next round.”
Larson enters the Roval only 15 points ahead of the cut line. The Hendrick 5 team cannot rest on their laurels, they have to make up some points through Stages or by finishing well. The Roval has unraveled this team’s championship aspirations before; they mustn’t succumb to pressure if they are to stay alive for a second title.
Denny Hamlin
Aside from the two drivers locked in, Denny Hamlin is sweating the least coming to the Roval. Back-to-back top-fives have the 11 team 50 points above the cut line. Hamlin will likely clinch a Round of 8 berth before the checkered flag, only needing eight points. Road courses have shown marked improvement for Hamlin this year, with poles in three of the last four races. The best result for Hamlin from any of those poles was second however. Expect the 11 to be a serious contender for their breakthrough Roval victory.
“We have to go in there and run our race,” Hamlin said. “Talladega couldn’t have gone much better for us from a points perspective, so there’s not a ton of pressure on us this week. But we still need to go there, qualify up front, and get ourselves locked in. We’ll prepare as hard as possible because there are still seven Playoff points up for grabs. As we saw last year, every point matters, so we’re not taking anything for granted.”
Hamlin has the ability to race like he’s locked in this week, being at such an advantageous points position. If the 11 is not in position for a Stage win, then expect Hamlin to position himself nicely for a possible runaway victory. Few have seen better road course execution this year than team 11. The Joe Gibbs racing crew want to close out the year with an elusive road course win.
Chase Elliott
One of the most consistent on the Charlotte Roval is Chase Elliott. Since his last win here in 2020 though, the 9 has seen a best finish of 12th. It should be noted that Elliott did lead a race-high 30 laps a season ago, before being spun late from second. Trying now to win the Owner’s Championship, nothing would make the 9’s path forward easier than a win. Perhaps Elliott’s best shot left at a victory is this weekend, as the favorite for Sunday.
“Charlotte is probably the most difficult of all of the road courses because it’s like trying to shove a big road course inside of a Bristol,” Elliott said. “That’s what it feels like. It’s just that choppy. When tracks are choppy like that, it’s just hard to get in rhythm. It’s hard to get in the flow. That’s what makes the Roval unique, just because it’s shorter than most of the road courses we go to and it’s laid out inside of a mile and a half. So, just finding that rhythm, finding that flow, it’s really hard to do there. Sometimes you can even have it at one point in time and lose it at another. It’s been pretty good to us the first couple trips at least, but not so much the last couple.”
Elliott may seem like he’s only chasing checkered flags, but the 9 is very much alive in the Owner’s title fight. The Hendrick team heads to the Roval fourth in these standings, 20 points above the cut line. The only driver to taste Roval victory multiple times, Sunday could be another road course bright spot for Elliott.
Tyler Reddick
From one road course king to another, Tyler Reddick eyes his fourth circuit win over the last two years. The No. 45 most recently conquered COTA, putting together a nearly flawless day in March. Now trying to fight back into the elite eight, the 45 should be seen as a top-tier threat on Sunday. Below the top eight or not, Reddick cannot be counted out just yet.
“We’re outside the cut line by two points, that’s very doable for us, right,” Reddick said. “That can be made up in one Stage and that’s what we’re going to aim to do.”
Reddick approaches the Roval down two points, trailing Brad Keselowski for eighth in the standings. Reddick will likely qualify well and get opening Stage points. Should the 23XI Racing crew make up this deficit in Stage 1, that could free up their strategy to chase the victory.
Chris Buescher
Still winless on road courses is the RFK Racing No. 17 of Chris Buescher. This zero in the win column is not from a lack of preparation though, as Buescher has a worst finish of 11th in the last 10 road races. This streak includes a sixth-place showing on the Roval a season ago. Facing down a first-ever Round of 8 appearance, Buescher is ready to get down to business at the Roval.
“Road course racing’s been really good for us, the Roval especially, we’ve been very competitive there,” Buescher said. “Certainly optimistic heading into it. We feel like that’s one where we feel is a good opportunity ahead of us. I’m excited for that one, I definitely feel like that one’s a pretty good shot for us.”
Team 17 heads to Charlotte fifth in the standings, only 19 points clear of the cut line. A top-10 should be expected for Buescher at minimum. Like with Hamlin, this string of strong road course results eventually will turn into a win. A road course is one of the few track types left where Buescher has yet to claim with a victory. That stat could easily change this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr
Few could have foreseen the first half of the Playoffs that have unfolded for Martin Truex Jr. Not only does the regular season champion have yet to earn a top-10, his best result is a meager 17th. Truex hopes to get back on track at the Charlotte Roval, one of few road courses he has yet to win on.
“I was one of the first guys to test with just an infield road course with grass all around,” Truex said. “I was wondering, since it was small and narrow and not sure how we would race on it beforehand, but it turned out to be quite the show. You have to be open-minded and embrace the challenges and try to do the best you can with it. That was how I viewed the Roval at the beginning, and how we tried to approach the Chicago Street Race, as well. We almost won the Roval the first year, so we ran well there and would love to get that win there this weekend with our Bass Pro Shops Camry.”
“Ever since we went to the Next Gen car, everything has been closer and it makes it challenging, for sure. It is harder to find an advantage, it’s harder to run at the front every week, consistently. Everything is tighter, closer together, less room for error – and you really have to be on top of things. The points situation is the same as every other race. It’s really, really hard to be at the front all of the time and this weekend we just need a solid day to hopefully get us through with some good tracks for us coming up.”
The 19 comes into the Charlotte Roval with a 17-point buffer ahead of elimination. Some of MTJ’s regular season speed and performance must be found again, with a margin that slim being far short of safe. 17 points can evaporate at the Roval, with one wrong corner being a potential Playoff killer. Truex should be on pins and needles as he’s far from a Round of 8 lock, and must get the job done Sunday. The inaugural Roval finish lives on in infamy for Truex, another strong showing must lie ahead.
One driver and team will put together a championship-caliber race Sunday, while four others will be left out. The Charlotte Roval has proven merciless to many deserving drivers and teams before, with danger lurking around every tight corner. The chaotic elimination race goes green Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Who triumphs in year six of the Roval is anybody’s guess, with favorites and upsets alike finding victory lane here before.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
