NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Win on the Monster Mile in Dover?
One of NASCAR’s most unique tracks is this weekend’s stage for the Cup Series. 36 drivers head to Delaware to battle on Dover Motor Speedway. Who are some drivers that may leave Sunday with the famed Miles the Monster trophy? Many drivers have mentioned that Dover will be a key indicator for who’s fast and who has work to be done. Here are a few favorites heading into Sunday’s Würth 400.
William Byron
While 0-8 in his Dover career, William Byron has been one of the best cars this season. The 24 totals two wins through 10 weeks, and enters Dover fresh off a top-10 at Talladega. The 24 may still be winless in Delaware, but he has been close here before. Byron boasts three top-10s here, including fourth in two of the last three Dover races. Hendrick Motorsports is also going for a third-straight Dover win. Byron is hoping to make this feat happen with three different drivers.
“Dover is just a tough place in general,” Byron said. “We’ve always had really fast cars there, even with the Next Gen cars, but this track has a bit of a survival technique to it. The track is hard on the car, hard on a driver, and one mistake can result in the end of your day or put you behind by quite a bit. That’s what happened last year unfortunately. We were able to overcome a wreck in practice, but then a caution during green-flag pit stops late in the race put us in a hole we couldn’t get out of. If we show up with the speed we usually have, though, and the speed we have shown this year, we should be in good shape. It will just be about maintaining that track position the whole race.”
Team 24 are still trying to dig out of the points hole from their Richmond penalty. Dover could be a very welcome destination for Byron. It was only two years ago when all of Hendrick finished 1-2-3-4 here. Expect all of their cars to be stout again this weekend, especially the 24 chasing another trophy.
Denny Hamlin
Going winless at Dover until his 29th start in 2020, Denny Hamlin has been solid lately on the concrete. Just 12 months ago, Hamlin started on the front row and led 67 laps before getting wrecked. Still searching for that elusive first win of 2023, Hamlin believes his team can grab another Monster trophy if their execution is on point.
“(Dover) is a fast one-mile racetrack with high banking,” Hamlin said. “Believe it or not, the setup correlation for Dover is more like a mile-and-a-half than it is a short track even though it’s only a mile. You can draw some conclusions on who will be good there based on the mile-and-half tracks we’ve ran. It’s a really tough track because if someone bobbles, we’ve seen huge crashes because it all funnels down to the bottom of the racetrack. It’s a track where you need to stay up front because if you get to about eighth place or so, man, it is tough to navigate restarts. If we can put it all together, I’m optimistic about our chances.”
After being up front late at Talladega, choosing to pit late for fuel erased Hamlin’s strong result. The 11 team now comes to a track Hamlin and crew chief Chris Gabehart have seemingly figured out. Should bad luck avoid Hamlin Sunday, he could be facing a second Dover victory.
Chase Elliott
The defending Dover winner, Chase Elliott enters this year’s race in a much different situation. Last year, Elliott came into Dover as the points leader and picked up win one of five for 2022. In 2023, the 9 is chasing every point possible and checkered flags, still outside of the top-30 in the standings. After 19 points across both Talladega Stages, Elliott heads to Dover on a bit of momentum. The 9 team hopes to capitalize on one of their strongest tracks.
“It was good to get another win there last year,” Elliott said. “For whatever reason, that track has suited what I look for in the car. We ran well there on the Xfinity side too. I’m not sure I know exactly what that is, but it has lent itself to some good results over the last six, seven years. Hopefully we can continue that.”
“I think just it being concrete, it’s a very, very fine line but has a lot of speed. You might not be going as fast as you do on some other tracks, but it always feels like you’re going pretty fast there. So, that makes it fun from a driver’s standpoint. After a while, you know, you get kind of used to going at a fast pace until you hit something and you’re reminded how fast you’re going. But Dover, that sensation of speed is always very real and that’s exciting for us to do something little different.”
Elliott should be seen as one of the favorites for another Monster trophy. His Dover average finish (9.8) is second-best in the series, as he also has nine top-fives in 12 starts. Expect Elliott to be a serious contender for a third career win on the Monster Mile.
Kevin Harvick
Making his final career start at the Monster Mile, Kevin Harvick hopes to leave Dover on top. A three-time winner here, Harvick’s victories have all been since 2015. The 4 is also riding a Dover top-10 streak lasting eight races. After being within sight of a few wins already this year, Harvick is confident entering Dover.
“Dover is a racetrack that everything about it is unique,” Harvick said. “The concrete, itself, all the way around the racetrack, is unique. Dover is a racetrack where you can get away with being aggressive every single lap. You have to drive the car as hard as it will go every single lap, and that’s hard to do there because there are all the little bumps that come with the concrete, the change of elevation as you go in and off the corners, and all the banking in the corners – it’s just a really, really fast racetrack. It’s also a very physical racetrack just because of all the G’s and the bouncing and everything that comes with driving around Dover. It’s a racetrack where you have to have your hands gripping on the steering wheel and gritting your teeth all at the same time in order to go fast every single lap. When your car’s off, there’s just nowhere to hide there. You wind up going a lap down, probably two laps down, because you pit early and then the caution comes out. It’s a beast of a racetrack and there’s a reason they call it the Monster Mile because you can get yourself in trouble really quick.”
“Dover is more familiar because there’s actually no shifting. But Dover is still just hammer-down, and car placement is the most important thing there, and knowing when to move your car around in order to get through traffic because it’s always been a difficult racetrack. If you’re stuck to one line, you can get yourself in big trouble at Dover. Usually, the fast line is on the bottom, but you have to be able to figure out how to move around the racetrack. But it’s more straightforward than a lot of the places we go because there’s no shifting, so it’s still got a lot of the characteristics of Dover, but with the big, wide tire and everything we have going on, it’s a lot of throttle.”
Harvick will make his 43rd career start at Dover on Sunday. Only the 16th driver to hit this feat, Harvick is in rarified air. Also coming into this weekend third in points, the 4 should put it all together and win eventually. The past two weeks have seen bad luck derail strong showings for team 4. Should they execute for all 400 laps Sunday, Harvick could be the big winner.
Martin Truex Jr
Hometown hero Martin Truex Jr. enters Dover as hungry as ever for another win. Across 32 career starts on the concrete, Truex is batting above 0.500 in top-10s with 18. MTJ also has three Monster Mile wins, but none since 2019. 2022 saw Truex third on the last lap however, before late contact from Ross Chastain. Heading into one of his best tracks, Truex hopes for another strong run.
“I view Dover as my hometown track, it’s closest to home,” Truex said. “If you could drive across the bay, it would be really close. It’s close to home, for sure. I’ve been going there a long time and it’s a place that means a lot to me. Starting early in my Busch Series career, doing some racing there in my dad’s car, and my first Cup win there, as well. We’ve had a lot of success there, too. It’s a special place for me and I love going there, it feels like home. We have a lot of friends and family who go to that race, as well. Hoping we can get them a win with our Bass Pro Shops Camry.”
“Just build on what we learned last year and I think it’s important we qualify well, so hopefully we do that. Generally, when you qualify well there, you get a good pit stall and it sets you up for a smoother day. Staying out front all day long is very important, and track position is very important since it’s hard to pass. It’s a very fast track and you want to keep your track position. Hopefully we can qualify well and it can set us up for a really good day. Corner speeds are so high at Dover that it does become hard to pass. But we’ve also had years where it’s been hard to pass and we’ve driven through the whole field there, like in 2019. You’ve got to get your car dialed in right and, if you can do that, you can do pretty much what you want with it.”
Still trying to erase his year-and-a-half dry spell, Dover could be the shot in the arm Truex needs to find victory lane again. Experience trumps nearly everything on the concrete mile, and Truex is far from lacking there. MTJ hopes to become the second Joe Gibbs Racing driver to grab a checkered flag in 2023.
Kyle Larson
The odds-on favorite for Dover, Kyle Larson is looking for his second victory in The First State. While Larson did win here in 2019, that was prior to him joining Hendrick Motorsports. In the two years since then, the 5 has racked up a second and a sixth-place finish here. Coupled with a series-best average finish of 6.9, Larson should be seen as a very strong contender for Sunday’s win.
“I look forward to racing at Dover this weekend,” Larson said. “The past two years there with the No. 5 team we have been fast with two top-10 finishes. I feel like I’ve had a super competitive race car at almost every track this season and expect nothing less at Dover. It would be great to get a win there with Hendrick Motorsports.”
The past four weeks have truly been a tale of two seasons for Larson’s 5 team. Richmond and Martinsville were both victories, while Bristol Dirt and Talladega were sub-30th place results. Larson said after Martinsville that he feels as strong as he was in 2021. If that is the case, then Dover could be a clinic from the 5 team.
Dover should be a great measuring stick for who is strong heading into the summer months. With that in mind, be sure to not miss a lap of action in Sunday’s 400-mile event. The Würth 400 will go green at 2:00 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Should a driver not listed above find victory lane, they will have earned quite the upset over the sport’s best.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images for NASCAR
