Who Can Reel in a Richmond Victory?

Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images for NASCAR

NASCAR

Stratta’s Six: Who Can Claim First 2023 Short Track win at Richmond?

Driver’s tempers may be as short as the venue for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race. Richmond Raceway is the stage for week seven of the 2023 NASCAR season, as the first short track race of the year. Who can redefine their season with a pivotal Commonwealth win? See a few contenders for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 below.

Denny Hamlin

The defending Toyota Owners 400 winner, hometown hero Denny Hamlin enters Virginia in need of a strong run. The 11 has been the center of controversy a lot this year, but so far only has two top-10s. 2023 definitely beats Hamlin’s horrid start to 2022 that saw a best finish of 13th before Richmond. The 11 can never be counted out of a winning chance on a track he’s conquered four times.

“I’m excited for Richmond – my hometown, some home cooking,” Hamlin said. “We won the race last year. It’s my kind of race track, I love it. I think we should be pretty strong, I really do. It’s not always a fan favorite from an action perspective because it’s very similar to Atlanta where the race can get strung out. It’s one of those race the racetrack type of tracks, so there’s not a lot of beating and banging even though it’s less than a mile. I would say the best cars win there on a higher percentage than any other races. Some tracks fit drivers a little better than others and I feel like Richmond is one where I can make a little difference in what my car may not have.”

Across both Richmond races in 2022, Hamlin backed up his April win with fourth in August. Be sure to keep an eye out on this crafty veteran, hoping to keep the trophy in Virginia.

Kevin Harvick

Chasing Hamlin last spring only to beat him at Richmond in August was the 4 of Kevin Harvick. Another four-time Richmond winner, Harvick’s best showing yet of 2023 was at Richmond’s sister track. If not for a late caution in Phoenix, the 4 was well on his way to winning that race. Harvick will hope for a similar run in Richmond, as the 4 goes for back-to-back wins.

“I think the most gratifying part of it all was the fact that we all worked through it together,” Harvick said. “Last year, this car was so drastically different from what we had before, and it forced you to look at things a lot differently than what you did before. For myself and Rodney (Childers, crew chief), we’ve been around this for a long time, and having to forget all of the stuff that you’ve done – you’re going to the same racetracks, but it’s a different thought process. It’s a different process of how you get to that answer than what it used to be. You had to be open-minded.”

Had last spring’s Richmond race been a lap longer, Harvick could have pulled off a season-sweep. Both the 11 and the 4 put on fresh tires at the end and tore through the field, finishing 1-2. With a top-10 in all but three trips to Richmond since 2014, Harvick is one of the best around this bullring.

Kyle Busch

Heading to one of his winningest tracks, Kyle Busch should be an odds-on favorite. Busch was previously in a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota however, which have won nine of the last 14 races at Richmond. Now in the No. 8 Chevrolet, the six-time winner’s chances have dipped slightly to 12-1 odds. Coming off a strong runner-up day in COTA though, Busch could be tough to beat again at one of his favorite tracks.

“I have had a lot of success at Richmond and I enjoy going there,” Busch said. “It’s a fun place. I struggled and was terrible there when I started in the Truck Series back in 2001 but then the track got repaved. I was able to go back there in the Xfinity Series and sat on the pole and got my first Busch Series win at Richmond, Now that the track has really aged and the surface is getting older, it has really turned that track into a tough short track, really much harder than it once used to be. Used to be able to get down to the bottom and kind of rip the center of the corner and drive off the corner really hard. Now it’s all about managing your tires and taking care of your car.

“Long runs always happen there. The second and third stages go 100 laps plus and that’s about how far you can go on fuel so to try and stretch your tires 100 laps definitely makes it tough on the driver and the car.”

Rowdy is riding an active Richmond top-10 streak of 10 races, including both of his latest wins from 2018. Experience and confidence alone should put Busch as a frontrunner again on Sunday. It is still unknown though if RCR can give Busch race-winning pace.

Christopher Bell

Surprisingly the most consistent active driver at Richmond, Christopher Bell has yet to win here. Despite that 0-5 mark, Bell does have four top-10s, putting his average finish at an even 6.0. The 20 was chasing down the 4 in the closing laps from August, but simply ran out of time to pounce. At a track where himself and JGR are so historically strong, expect big things from Bell.

“It seems like you can move around more in the daytime at Richmond which is a good thing because you are able to generate momentum and create passes,” Bell said. “I’ve always liked Richmond a little bit more in the daytime, you get to run different lanes and JGR has been really good at Richmond.”

Aside from 15th his rookie year, Bell’s Richmond record is almost perfect. Finishes of fourth, third, sixth, and second have the 20 trending towards an elusive win. Should Bell win Sunday, he would become the seventh driver to take Coach Gibbs to Richmond victory lane.

Martin Truex Jr

Few have been better recently in Richmond than Martin Truex Jr. Since joining JGR in 2019, Truex has ended three of the last seven trips to Richmond in victory lane. Aside from that, he’s led at least 80 laps nine different times dating back to 2016. Still searching for a 2023 points win after winning the Clash, Truex likes his odds when it comes to this tricky track.

“I’ve always really liked (Richmond) to be honest,” Truex said. “From the first time I raced there in 2003 I’ve always enjoyed the track. There was a long period where I didn’t have great numbers there, but I felt like I loved the track and always ran well there and had a lot of crazy things happen there throughout my career. Once I got to Furniture Row we started leading a ton of laps there. We also had a couple of heartbreaking finishes there where we should have won the race but didn’t and I wondered if it was ever going to happen. Then we went on a streak there, so it’s been a great track and it’s a ton of fun. I’m curious to see how it works out with the new short track package that NASCAR has come up with. Last year the short tracks were tough to make passes and we would get stuck a car length behind someone. You would run them down and get a car length back and you couldn’t makes any moves because of the dirty air. Hopefully we’ve been able to help that some and we can go back to putting on a great show at places like Richmond and I hope for myself and my team we can get our Auto Owners Insurance Toyota back in victory lane there like we’ve done before.”

“I love the track, it’s great. Been very successful there, especially lately with our Auto-Owners Insurance Camry. Been lucky enough to win some races there. I really enjoy the track because it’s kind of unique. It’s a short track, but it races like a bigger track than it is. You can really move around there the way the tires wear out and the track is really slippery that makes it fun and a challenge and always a good race for the fans.”

In spite of his 2022 bad luck, Richmond was one of few bright spots for Truex. April’s race saw MTJ finish fourth after losing the lead late, and he was seventh in August. Richmond was the site of Truex’s last victory, a win that now falls 50 races in the rearview mirror. Another cunning JGR veteran, the 19 could turn some heads on Sunday.

Joey Logano

When thinking of Joey Logano at Richmond, many would be quick to remember 2017’s infamous encumbered win. The 22’s lone victory that season, Richmond’s infraction ultimately kept Logano out of the Playoffs. Fast-forwarding to now, the 22 has seen seven Richmond top-10s in the 10 races since, and led over half the laps here in August. Locked into the Playoffs this year thanks to his Atlanta win, Logano hopes to add another victory in Virginia.

“Not much different than what we’ve had in the past,” Logano said on what to expect. “Tires are going to wear out there a lot. Smart racers will prevail. We’ll have some interesting setup decisions to make, to make sure we’re good in the long-haul, as well as the short run. We’ll try to adjust to that. I don’t think it’ll be different from the Richmonds we’ve seen – it may widen-out some — but, like usual, the smart racers will be strong.”

Logano enters the Commonwealth with unfinished business on his mind. Trying to upset as a Ford at such a Toyota-dominant track, the 22 led 222 of August’s 400 laps, only to fade to sixth. While Fords in general have been very hit-or-miss so far in 2023, expect Logano to come out fast in Richmond.

Coverage of the Toyota Owners 400 begins Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Richmond begins a short-track swing lasting three weeks for the NASCAR Cup Series. Who can start this stretch off in the best way possible with a win? Be sure to tune in Sunday and find out which driver can grab valuable points and a checkered flag.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images for NASCAR