NASCAR
Does the NASCAR Cup Series Have a Championship Favorite Right Now?
19 races into the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, who stands out from the pack? The first year of the Next Gen car has seen great parity in winners. Aside from that, who is positioning themselves nicely to contend for the Bill France Cup this fall? Sunday in Atlanta saw the first three-time winner on this Cup campaign; is Chase Elliott heads and tails the top dog for the title? Let’s take a look at four drivers who may end up racing for the 2022 championship at Phoenix Raceway in November.
Chase Elliott
The points leader since race five in March, Chase Elliott is currently the hottest driver in the sport. The past three weeks have seen the Hendrick 9 car win twice. The other race was a close runner-up at Road America. With a strong chance at three-straight wins, Elliott is poised nicely to waltz his way unopposed to the regular season championship. After their third win of 2022 in Atlanta, the 9 team leads the standings now by 47 points. As the regular season quickly winds down, Elliott inches ever-so-closer to a wealth of Playoff bonus points.
While Elliott was the champion two short years ago, he very much flew under-the-radar in 2020. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin were the two overwhelming favorites that year; Elliott took three of the last five wins and that championship. In his title defense a season ago, Elliott was consistent enough to make the Championship 4 again. But the 9 saw no wins after July. With a hat-trick of victories on three very unique, disparate tracks, the 9 team shows winning prowess just about everywhere.
Once the Playoffs arrive, Elliott will likely be one of the top seeds, aiming for his third-straight championship finale appearance. Far from needing a win over the first few rounds, Elliott may just be one of the most consistent drivers across the final 10 weeks, as he is now. Not only is Elliott chasing his second championship in three years; he’s also trying to make it three-straight titles for Hendrick Motorsports.
Ross Chastain
Perhaps the fastest driver on a weekly basis, Ross Chastain has certainly asserted himself as a title threat for 2022. However, some high profile run ins across numerous races have several drivers incensed with Chastain’s aggression. This only escalated in Atlanta, as Chastain was blamed by Austin Dillon and Denny Hamlin for ending both of their days. With targets on his back from multiple drivers, Chastain’s Playoff life may become difficult as he hopes to advance onward.
Chastain has debatably the most speed of anyone in the Cup Series right now. Even with the on-track drama and many feuds possibly brewing, the Trackhouse 1 team still has five-straight top-10s. Perhaps no race better encapsulates Chastain’s tenacity than Atlanta, as he piloted his damaged Camaro to a runner-up result.
If Chastain’s speed remains, then he will likely be among the Round of 8 drivers gunning for a coveted Championship 4 spot. However, Chastain’s championship aspirations may just be in the hands of others such as Denny Hamlin. A few drivers may be waiting for just the right time to send a message back to the melon man. Hamlin said after Atlanta that he’s “reached his limit” with Chastain’s driving style. We will see if any payback from the 11 or anyone else derails the 1’s season.
Denny Hamlin
Despite being 19th in points, Denny Hamlin is arguably as strong as ever for a title run. The only driver to make the Championship 4 every year since 2019, Hamlin’s year has been very up-and-down to date. When the 11 has a clean, mistake-free day, they are more often than not up front challenging for wins. On the flip side though, Hamlin has faced great adversity this season from a lot of bad luck. Hamlin only has four top-10s through 19 races, but two of those are wins.
Strong days gone south for Hamlin include Dover, where a loose wheel and crash with Cody Ware erased a potential win. Darlington was another effort that ended early, with a late crash while up front. Then Hamlin’s also been taken out in both Atlanta races. These are all just a few of many instances of poor luck or execution for driver 11.
Should the 11 team find some consistent luck and stay out of other’s messes, then Hamlin could make a fourth-straight finale appearance. After the worst start to a year in Hamlin’s career, the 11 team has certainly turned a corner. Hamlin has shown winning pace on a wide variety of tracks in 2022, which has him pegged as a strong pick to make Phoenix again.
Kyle Busch
On sheer experience alone, Kyle Busch seems to be a yearly threat for the Championship 4. However, the 18 has not made the finale since winning the 2019 Championship. While Rowdy only has one win so far this year, he has been close to numerous other victories. In spite of this, recent weeks have not been kind to the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. Busch has four-straight finishes of 20th or worse.
Busch’s very hit-or-miss 2022 so far is very similar to Hamlin’s trials and tribulations. Unlike the 11 though, Busch’s 18 is a much higher fifth in points. In the 10 races since winning Bristol Dirt, Busch does boast five top-10s, including a pair of second-place finishes. However, a recent string of poor results do not instill a ton of confidence for the 18. One of these races did see Busch lead laps though, as the 18 was among the best in Nashville. Only a late decision to pit cost Busch a potential win or top-five day.
The 18 needs to find pace seen earlier in the year to truly contend this fall. Busch was in position a year ago to almost steal a Championship 4 spot. He can be within striking distance again if the cards fall right in these Playoffs.
Should the Playoffs start today, these four drivers would all be in the top eight seeding. However, a lot of racing does remain leading into this year’s postseason. Plenty of time is left for more title threats to emerge. It will be interesting to see who can enter the 2022 Playoffs on a hot hand, and who could perhaps sneak their way unnoticed into Phoenix.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images for NASCAR
