NASCAR
Assessing the Bottom 4’s Chances at The Roval, and how the cut line will change Sunday
Sunday marks Elimination Race 1 of the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Much of the attention has been deservedly given to the new venue at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. However, 4 drivers will end their Playoff run on Sunday. There are some surprise names currently in the danger zone below the cut line.
Clint Bowyer (-4)
One of only 5 drivers with multiple wins this season, Clint Bowyer is currently 13th in points, 4 points below the Playoff cut line. Bowyer’s current position is due to 2 lackluster performances in the first 2 Playoff races. The attrition-filled Las Vegas race saw Bowyer finish 23rd, and Richmond last week was a major struggle for the 14. After racing much of the night outside of the top 20, the lowest running Playoff driver, Bowyer was able to pull off a 10th-place effort.
With the precarious position of the first guy outside-looking-in, Bowyer needs to just maintain his position on Sunday. Depending on how he’s running, guys ahead of Bowyer in points could have trouble, and lose ground to the 14. If just 1 guy ahead of him has any kind of issue, Bowyer should be in a prime spot to advance. Clint needs to run a conservative race at the Roval, protecting his car while also scoring stage points. If Clint manages to finish, he should be able to advance if anyone else has a problem.
Jimmie Johnson (-6)
7-time champion Jimmie Johnson is 6 points under the Playoff cut line. This comes after the worst season of his career to-date. However, he arguably should be clear of the danger zone heading into the Roval. Las Vegas saw the 48 run in the top 10 all day long until a late incident on a restart. The damage from that crash forced the 48 to finish a disappointing 22nd in the Playoff opener. Despite not having recent success at Richmond, Playoff race 2 was much more beneficial to the 48 team. Jimmie was able to run in the top 10 once again for much of the night. If not for a mid-race pit road speeding penalty, the 48 could have been a contender for the win. At the end of the night, the 48 crossed the line in 8th. Richmond was his first top 10 since Bristol last month.
With the recent speed the 48 team has shown, Jimmie Johnson has to feel optimistic entering the Roval. At Playoff media day, he cited the Roval as his best shot to win in Round 1. Johnson was one of very few drivers looking forward to this inaugural event. At 6 points below the cut line, Johnson has to be on the offensive in the stages. But if attrition becomes a factor and bites some other Playoff drivers, then the 48 should be in a great position to advance.
Erik Jones (-21)
The youngest man in this year’s Playoffs had a weekend of highs and lows in the Playoff opener. He qualified on the pole at Las Vegas, but would not lead a single lap. The day went from bad to worse for Jones in Vegas on lap 147. Kevin Harvick blew a tire entering turn 1, and Jones had nowhere to go to avoid the 4. This resulted in Jones finishing dead last at Vegas. Richmond was far from what the 20 team needed, finishing 11th after a relatively quiet night.
Jones now heads into the Roval 21 points below the cut line. Aside from potential stage points, he is in a must-win scenario. If Jones fails to either score stage points and run in the top 5 or win the Roval, then he is facing elimination from his first Playoffs.
Denny Hamlin (-29)
Perhaps the biggest surprise this far below the cut line, Denny Hamlin is in a similar situation to his young teammate. Las Vegas was not kind to Denny, as he spun into the grass and destroyed his car on lap 248. This incident resulted in the 11 finishing 32nd. Although Richmond is one of his strongest tracks, last week was a bad night for the 11 team as well. After a near-spin early on, the 11 rallied back to the lead lap, but finished 16th.
Much like Jones, Denny Hamlin is 29 points below the Playoff cut line due to 2 bad races. Even if Hamlin wins both stages, he would need a very strong run to advance. While mathematically he is not in a must-win situation, the 11 team needs the win-or-nothing mindset on Sunday. Hamlin does have prior road course success, but the unknown of this race is sky high. The 11 needs a miracle win to advance, can it happen on Sunday?
The 4 drivers currently below the Playoff cut line represent 3 of the biggest teams in NASCAR. With the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers having such a huge deficit, they both need to tackle the Roval eyeing a win. In 1 word, Sunday is sure to be entertaining. It will mark the first ever NASCAR Playoff race on a road course, and the debut of an all-new track. However, the Playoff picture will shrink by 4 guys after Sunday as well. To put it all together, Sunday is the most hyped race all season long, and may be the most unpredictable. Be sure to tune in for all of the craziness.
Photo credit to Nationwide Events via Flickr.
