NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Be King of the Turn One Hill in Austin?
One of the earliest road course races in NASCAR’s last four decades has more questions than answers ahead. Sunday’s Cup race will be some of the first competitive laps ever turned on a new National Circuit at COTA. The never-before-seen setup for NASCAR features 20 turns over 2.3 miles of asphalt. Despite four years of history in Austin, this new short course will be a brand new challenge for everyone. Road course talent in the NASCAR Cup Series has likewise never been higher than it is in 2025. Here’s a look at a few drivers who hope to be crowned road course king in COTA.
Shane van Gisbergen
To the surprise of few, the odds-on favorite to capture the checkered flag in COTA is Shane van Gisbergen. The Cup rookie now full-time in Trackhouse’s No. 88 remains arguably the most elite road racing talent on Sunday’s grid. Despite going 0-4 in a part-time Cup schedule last year, the New Zealander cannot be counted out at any circuit. SVG does have past experience on a similar COTA layout as well, in a Supercars race from 2013. Known for adapting fast to new tracks, SVG has high confidence for a banner weekend.
“I think the new course will be okay,” van Gisbergen said. “I did like the long track, but I see why they (NASCAR) shortened it, to give more times past the fans and more action. The cut through they have done, we don’t lose any passing spots, more laps as well. I think the shorter track is probably a good thing.”
“I like the track and I think it’s pretty cool. The change they have done is really good, with the second extension or cut through. The one we did in Supercars would be terrible in these (Cup) cars, so they made a good call there. But there will probably be a bit of action, I think, with the tight left hander. It’s odd how we spend more time off the track than on it, but that’s how it is here, and it looks pretty cool when the cars are all battling.”
A year ago in Xfinity COTA was SVG’s first true shot at a victory, until last-lap contact ensued with Austin Hill. Regardless of crossing the line in second, a course-cutting penalty relegated SVG to 27th. The Trackhouse driver should be quick in qualifying and have this speed remain throughout the weekend. While neither Daytona or Atlanta saw a Playoff-upset winner, SVG could change that stat on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick
Never to be counted out on any road course is three-time victor Tyler Reddick. The 2023 COTA winner led 41 laps two years ago, surviving a triple-overtime onslaught. Reddick is also batting a perfect 1000 for COTA top-10s, with a worst result of ninth. The last three trips to Texas have seen Reddick earn a top-five, only further emphasizing his road course prowess.
A large reason Reddick came to Toyota was for his natural acumen turning left and right. Driver 45 holds a series second-best average finish (3.7) at COTA. This raw ability may pay off with another banner result in Austin.
Ross Chastain
The man behind COTA’s most viral moment had perhaps this track’s most significant NASCAR win yet. 2022’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix was the maiden win for both team Trackhouse and Ross Chastain, with some Texas-sized flair. Contact made in the closing corners with AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman forced the seas apart for Chastain, putting the No. 1 atop the pylon. Similar to Reddick, Chastain also has a stout COTA record with four top-10s and a worst result of seventh. Chastain described what makes the technical Texas course fit his driving style and allow continued success.
“Phil Surgen (crew chief) gives me cars that I can be aggressive with and chase the grip, both in qualifying and the race, and be able to attack it,” Chastain said. “The track is going to be repaved in a lot areas with means it will be smooth and have a lot of grip. They continue to invest in the surface there. As it continues to get bumpy, they don’t let it go; they go ahead and fix the issues. It will be a different track from what we saw last year.”
Between Chastain, SVG, Daniel Suarez, and Connor Zilisch, a lot of attention will be on all of Trackhouse this weekend. In a first for this team, they have four realistic shots at the win across their entire lineup. Chastain and SVG remain two of the favorites, as does teenage phenom Zilisch. Suarez also has laps led at this course, giving this team four bullets to hit victory lane’s target. Chastain’s ultimate competition for Sunday may just come from within The House.
Alex Bowman
Death, taxes, and incredible COTA consistency from Alex Bowman are the three apparent guarantees in life. Driver 48 was eighth in race one at Austin, and has been second, third, and fourth in the years since. This road course mastery has not paid off with an elusive win just yet, but Bowman does enter Sunday as the reigning Chicago Street Race victor.
“We’ve been strong at COTA over the last four years,” Bowman said. “I think our worst finish was eighth in 2021. So I’m hoping we can keep that streak going and have a strong weekend. We need to qualify well, collect stage points, and just maintain track position to be there at the end.”
Hendrick cars won four of the five road course events in 2024, including COTA with William Byron. Bowman is bound to break through the glass door of the winner’s circle at COTA eventually. 2025 may finally be his turn to bask in the Texas spotlight.
AJ Allmendinger
Now a full-time Cup driver once again, AJ Allmendinger should be a constant threat in each road course race. While Chastain did grab the win here three years ago, Allmendinger was leading on the last lap. AJ has picked up a pair of Xfinity wins in Austin, but still yearns for a Cup win at COTA.
“I always enjoy going to COTA, I feel like we’ve had a lot of speed there in the past,” Allmendinger said. “We’ve had some success, but we’ve always been in the mix to run inside the top five. It’ll be a challenge this weekend with the new layout, but I feel good from where our road course program has been. If we can unload, have speed, and execute, we’ll give ourselves a shot to win the race.”
Allmendinger’s road course résumé speaks for itself; the past open wheel star is NASCAR’s all-time winningest man on circuits. What remains to be seen, however, is if the Kaulig No. 16 team can match AJ’s talent with a flawless performance. Allmendinger is no stranger to Herculean performances at COTA, but this crew cannot afford any unforced errors. COTA provides AJ a prime opportunity at a season-defining win and Playoff berth; whether outside factors go in his favor is the ultimate question ahead.
Chase Elliott
No list of potential road course winners is complete without mentioning Chase Elliott. Currently ranked third all-time in Cup with seven road race wins, Elliott took the inaugural COTA triumph in 2021. Since then, his best Austin finish was fourth. Elliott has been diligently doing homework studying up on the new layout debuting this weekend, though. The 2020 Cup champ is still trying to fully figure out the National Circuit.
“It’s kind of one of those things where it’s tough because the only thing you can do is simulator work until you can get some eyes on it,” Elliott said. “The good news is that we’ve got some practice this week to understand the reconfiguration. I do not have my head wrapped around it completely at this point. I mean, I know what it’s supposed to look like, but I think until you really get out there and feel it – for me, it’s always hard to kind of understand exactly how things are going to be. And I kind of hate guessing because I don’t want to guess wrong in that situation, so I just kind of look forward to practice, honestly, more than anything. I would have to imagine it will change the racing a little, I would think, just based off the way it’s shaped. So, hopefully it gives more opportunities to get crafty; have some more options, opportunities to pass or just be different. If it does, great. And if it doesn’t, it’ll look like it has for the last few years out there.”
Elliott was shockingly the lone Hendrick driver to not win on a road course last season. It’s been over three years since he last pulled off this feat, at Road America in 2021. Past winning experience on any track pays dividends, but a new look COTA lies ahead for every team to tackle. Elliott’s No. 9 may have a leg up on the competition, but it will be far from a Sunday cruise for the Georgia driver.
COTA continues a triple-threat of wildcard races to open the 2025 season. Points are very scrambled across the Cup Series field following back-to-back drafting tracks. An immediate road course may keep this trend alive. COTA provides another great chance for an outside-the-box winner, with the chance to permanently alter the Playoff picture. Austin turns loud and fast with the fifth annual EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The new short course only further adds to the weirdness that will be on display in ATX.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
