NASCAR
A Look at Who I Think Makes the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs
2025 is well underway and with it will soon come a new NASCAR season. As racecars inch ever so closer to Bowman Gray and Daytona, the Playoff fight will soon be top of mind again. Over 26 weeks from February to August, 16 drivers will rise up above the pack as championship contenders. In no particular order, here’s who I think will be racing for the Bill France Cup this fall.
Playoff Locks
As with any year’s Playoff field, a few drivers are all but guaranteed to make the dance. Four past champions are included on this list: reigning champ Joey Logano, his teammate Ryan Blaney, and the Hendrick duo of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. These four drivers represent the last five Bill France Cup winners. They should all see at least a few regular season wins apiece.
Non-champions making the cut as Playoff locks are title-caliber threats Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and William Byron. None of these four have missed a postseason since 2020, and once again all of them should be safe with regular season checkered flags. Bell, Reddick, and Byron have all made recent Championship 4 appearances, and Hamlin is always stiff competition too. There is some reason to doubt Hamlin in 2025 though, with a new crew chief.
Drivers Who Should Win
Two more past Cup champions enter 2025 on very different paths–Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch. Keselowski finally broke back into victory lane in 2024, and leads a newly-expanded RFK Racing on a seemingly upward trajectory. The 2012 champ’s experience and leadership should deliver ample winning opportunities for the Ford team. Busch meanwhile is riding his own career-longest losing drought, failing to find any win from 2024. I do see each of these veterans finding victory lane in 2025, returning their teams to the postseason.
Buzzer-beater upset winners in the waning weeks of 2024’s regular season shifted three top-16 drivers below the cut line. The unlucky trio were: Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, and Bubba Wallace. Despite not being in the 16-man party, each of these drivers put up respectable season-long campaigns that could have yielded outside shots at the title. Buescher and Chastain both snuck into victory lane as Playoff spoilers, showing great adversity between their teams. Wallace meanwhile starts 2025 with a new crew chief, as Charles Denike gets promoted to call shots on Sundays. All three of these drivers have made past postseason appearances and had deep runs, I expect more of the same.
Three spots remain unaccounted for in my hypothetical 2025 Playoff grid. Two of them will be made up by both past Chicago Street Race winners: Alex Bowman and Shane van Gisbergen. Hendrick Motorsports’ strength is hardly ever in doubt at putting four title-capable cars on the racetrack. This was shown with Bowman’s stellar 2024 Playoffs. The 48 will complete a HMS foursome in the postseason once again, with a win or two to his name.
SVG, however, is jumping in the deep end of the proverbial pool as a Cup Series rookie. The New Zealander has already more than proven his talent though. The No. 88 should be a top-tier threat across each of the five regular season road course races. Highlighted races for SVG should especially be Chicago and Mexico City. SVG already beat the Cup field in his series debut two years ago. His NASCAR craft only gets better with every lap turned. The road course merchant should be able to snag one of the five wins across the opening 26 weeks.
The final driver on my forecasted Playoff grid is Ty Gibbs. 2025 marks full-time Cup season number three for the Toyota driver. Big things have happened for many young drivers in their third season. Larson, Elliott, Byron, Reddick, and Harrison Burton are just a few recent examples to earn a maiden win in year three. Out of all winless Cup Series drivers, I see Ty Gibbs being the next to find victory lane. This would secure him a second-straight Playoff berth.
Borderline Drivers on Points
At least four drivers will each put up valiant 2025 efforts but fall short of the Playoffs. Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, and Todd Gilliland all fall into this camp.
Cindric has a pair of teammates responsible for the last three championships. He is likely win or bust for a postseason berth, however. The road course ace should have these five regular season races circled, as well as all five superspeedways. Cindric amazingly led laps across every 2024 superspeedway date. Aside from a drafting win or a road course triumph, the 2 may spend much of the year in his teammates’ shadows.
Briscoe makes the biggest offseason move, inheriting the No. 19 Toyota from retiring Martin Truex Jr. This crew is certainly Playoff-caliber alongside their JGR teammates. However, the 19 has gone winless in two of the last three seasons with Truex. Briscoe will subsequently have some growing pains and an adjustment period ahead. The Indiana driver has shown a road course prowess that rivals the best in the sport though. If Briscoe does not get a win, he will likely be around the points cut line come week 26.
Trackhouse Racing’s first driver, Daniel Suarez will have pressure to perform all season long. Driver 99 is racing under a one-year deal, in 2026 free agency status from the start of 2025. Suarez did capitalize in race two of 2024 from Atlanta with a big win. 2025 may prove to be a harder time for Suarez finding immediate success. September’s Atlanta race also saw the 99 earn a runner-up result. The Georgia track may be an ace up Suarez’s sleeve once again. Trackhouse performance on road courses is nothing to overlook either. The 99 should have opportunities but is a questionable 2025 race winner.
Todd Gilliland is perhaps best aligned on this list for a big step forward in 2025. Returning to Front Row Motorsports now in the flagship No. 34, Gilliland takes veteran status over a few teammates. The 24-year-old enters his fourth full-time Cup season, and appears poised for a breakout year with factory support behind FRM. Gilliland has the potential to be a Playoff-upsetting winner, but admittedly lacks some experience racing up front. It will be fun to follow FRM’s progression all year long under Gilliland’s guidance.
Only one year’s Playoff grid (2019) was not spoiled by any upset winners. This proves the ample opportunities available for all drivers through 11 years of this format. Barring any changes to Playoff eligibility, odds are against my 16 picks being perfect. Few could have seen the late-season heroics of Harrison Burton or Chase Briscoe in 2024. The Playoff cut line battle is always an overarching storyline throughout the spring and summer months of any NASCAR season. Who makes it and who’s left on the outside looking in will be a fun tale to follow all season long.
Written by Peter Stratta
Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X
Be sure to follow the writer on Twitter/X
Photo Credits to Sean Gardner/Getty Images
