NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Which Can Earn an 11th-Hour Win at Martinsville?
For six drivers, 500 pressure-packed laps around Martinsville Speedway lie ahead in their quests for the Bill France Cup. Of the six contenders not yet locked into the Championship 4, they all have past success on the paperclip. Can any of these teams find the winning formula again and earn another Grandfather Clock? Here’s the remaining Playoff drivers’ chances at taking the Xfinity 500 checkers on Sunday. Whoever does win Martinsville aims to have peak momentum ahead for Phoenix.
Denny Hamlin
No active driver can say they match the Martinsville résumé of Denny Hamlin. The Virginia native has five Grandfather Clock trophies, but none since 2015. Hamlin may be creeping towards a decade-long losing drought here, but he’s been close to victory multiple times here recently. The last four Martinsville trips have yielded three top-fives for the 11, with laps led in each showing. Entering this weekend 18 points below the cut line, the veteran is well aware of many paths ahead into the Championship 4.
“It’s not an absolute must win,” Hamlin said. “There are ways that we can get in on points if we score a lot of stage points and those other guys have some trouble. Realistically though, we will probably need to win based on what we’ve seen the last two weeks. I think we’re plenty capable if we can execute and put ourselves in the right position late in the race. We have been very fast at Martinsville for a long time. Winning this race is one box we haven’t checked since Chris (Gabehart, crew chief) and I have worked together. I know he wants it bad, I want it bad, and the team wants it. We just need to go make it happen.”
Hamlin’s top-five streak would likely be intact here if not for a late pit stop in April. 18 points is a large deficit for any driver to overcome, but Hamlin’s head is held high going into one of his favorite tracks. Hamlin is rightfully a co-favorite coming into Sunday, eyeing a fifth Championship 4 appearance.
Kyle Larson
Favored right alongside Hamlin for the Martinsville victory is 2024’s winningest man Kyle Larson. In years past Larson called Martinsville his worst track on the circuit, and was left confused at how to make time around the paperclip. Since the Next Gen Car’s introduction however, Larson has been one of the most consistent around this bullring. The last four Martinsville races have seen Larson earn a win (spring 2023), be runner-up twice, and sixth in this race last year. Larson also hopes to erase a points gap, and is eager to have another banner showing for Team Hendrick.
“We’ve got a win and a couple second-place finishes I think at Martinsville since I joined Hendrick Motorsports,” Larson said. “It’s not always been a great track for me, but I think that Hendrick Motorsports has a great package for the track and it has definitely helped me. Hopefully, we can battle for stage wins and the victory on Sunday.”
Unlike Hamlin, Larson’s points gap is a mere seven markers and could be erased in a single stage. Larson will likely be points racing against one if not two teammates though. If not a winning car, Larson should be a constant presence in the top-five. Rare uncharacteristic mistakes from the 5 team have them possibly facing elimination. Whether Larson rises to the occasion or folds under pressure will be a defining drive of the 2024 season.
Ryan Blaney
The defending Xfinity 500 winner, the Grandfather Clock was a long time coming for Ryan Blaney’s trophy case. This win propelled the Penske 12 team into their first Championship 4 and eventually delivered them the 2023 title too. Blaney’s arguably been the strongest driver around the Half-Mile of Mayhem for several years. Everything finally paid off for the Penske driver 12 months ago. Coming into this race eyeing back-to-back triumphs and Cups, Blaney hopes to keep the good times rolling.
“Martinsville is a track I love,” Blaney said. “I’ve loved it ever since I was a kid. I grew up a little bit south of there and went there a lot as a child and watched my dad race and watched a lot of these great racers run around that place and I’ve always wanted to win there and get a grandfather clock. We were able to put it all together last year. That race, to me, is kind of like Vegas. I feel like we’ve had a couple slip away from us. I feel like we should have two or three grandfather clocks, but sometimes things just don’t work out for you, so it was nice to go into that race last year. Even though we were sitting fairly good on points we didn’t care about that, we just wanted to go win the race. Being able to put together kind of the dominating day that we did, especially the last two-thirds of that race was a huge statement and it put us in a really great head space going into Phoenix and we were able to perform there. I love that place to my core. A lot of special reasons behind it off track and on track, so hopefully we can get another grandfather clock. That would be pretty special.”
Blaney was in prime position to have a care-free Martinsville a week ago, until turn three. The last lap at Homestead may be a moment that Blaney replays in his mind for weeks to come. The 12 ultimately allowed Tyler Reddick to launch around the outside for the finale ticket-punching win. The reigning Cup champion boasts the series-best Martinsville average finish (8.8) and no finish worse than 11th since 2019. Being 38 points outside of the top four though, it will likely take a repeat of 2023’s win for the champ to stay alive in this postseason.
William Byron
Currently the last man in the Championship 4, William Byron will try and protect a slim points lead and earn a Martinsville sweep. April was Byron’s second triumph in five Martinsville races, but these are his only top-fives here in this span. The spring date six months ago saw the No. 24 pace the field for 88 laps, earning his most recent win on the 2024 season.
“It’s a place that I know everyone at Hendrick Motorsports puts a lot of emphasis on being competitive at,” Byron said. “I know last fall isn’t what we wanted and I’m hopeful that when we go back this time in the fall we’re really competitive. We know what the mission is for the weekend and it’s our job to execute and make it happen.”
Byron clearly knows how to summit the mountaintop at Martinsville, and is in a very similar situation to last fall. Byron entered the Martinsville cut race with a 30-point cushion that day. A rarely off race at the paperclip saw Byron battle illness and tough out a 13th-place result. It will likely take a much better finish to put the 24 back into the Championship 4.
Christopher Bell
Another driver who knows a thing or two about being clutch at Martinsville is Christopher Bell. The Joe Gibbs Racing contender earned a walk off win under a do-or-die scenario here two years ago. Bell said that race was when Martinsville finally all clicked for him; he loves the challenges this track holds.
“Martinsville is a driver’s racetrack, and you aren’t going to be good there unless you are a good racecar driver,” Bell said. “It’s pretty hard to fake your way around it. The race is extremely long, so you have to be good at all the parts of the sport. You have to execute pit road, you have to be able to get in and out of your pit box, you have to run your pit road lights through the corners at Martinsville. It tests every ability that you have as a driver.”
Bell said earlier this week that his 29 point gap to the cutline is a false sense of security. Driver 20 is anything but comfortable or complacent heading into a cut race that could turn the Championship 4 on its head. His 2022 win here is Bell’s only Martinsville top-five in nine starts. Winner-dependent, it may take a similar effort to secure Bell into a third-straight Championship 4.
Chase Elliott
Showing recent signs of race-winning pace, a potential second Chase Elliott championship hinges on Martinsville. The 2020 Cup winner had to take this race to make the finale, and went back-to-back at Phoenix. Heading to Virginia 43 points below the cut, Elliott once again faces a win-or-go-home scenario.
“I try hard not to overthink the situation,” Elliott said. “To be candid, we’ve been in this spot before, so it’s not like this is the first time I’ve been through this or had to experience this. Having done that before and been in this spot, I think that it gives you a little bit of a sense of peace and just kind of knowing how to handle it and knowing that your team can get it done.”
Elliott is very capable of taking home another Martinsville win, with top-five performance shown the last two weeks. The No. 9 quickly began picking off cars from a mid-field starting spot at Las Vegas, before being wrecked out early. In Homestead Elliott put on perhaps his best South Florida showing, with 81 laps led and a fifth-place finish. Expect Elliott to come out swinging, chasing a second career win at one of his best statistic racetracks.
2024’s running of the Xfinity 500 is unique as a very evenly-matched heavyweight slugfest. The six contenders going for the final two Championship 4 slots are all Martinsville masters, and each capable of grabbing another flag this year. Always a fan favorite race, the Xfinity 500 will be can’t-miss TV when it goes green on Sunday. The final elimination race of the year gets underway at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
