NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who’s Favored to Clinch a Championship 4 Spot in Las Vegas?
The biggest stars of stock car racing are expected to show up and show out at Las Vegas. Kicking off the elite eight Playoff round for a third-straight year, the desert diamond has a championship finale ticket at stake. Who are some favorites to possibly claim the South Point 400 and extend their title path? Here’s a few drivers who hope to cash out with a lucky slip.
Kyle Larson
Can anyone stop Kyle Larson’s march to another Phoenix finale? Last week’s answer to that simple question was no, very much like the last two Las Vegas races. In those two starts alone, driver 5 has over 300 laps led and four swept stages. Dating back to 2021, Larson only has two results here worse than second. In short, LVMS has been one of Larson’s most consistently great stops since joining Hendrick, and now offers him another Championship 4 lock.
“Las Vegas has been one of our better tracks,” Larson said. “On paper, all three tracks in the Round of 8 stack up pretty well for our HendrickCars.com team, but we still have to go out and execute. I would like to run well and win, but we also have a good opportunity to score stage points and hopefully create a bigger gap before Martinsville.”
Across the 27 year history of Cup Series racing at Las Vegas, only one driver has won a three-peat–Jimmie Johnson. The past Hendrick legend is also LVMS’ all-time wins leader with four checkered flags. Larson will try and equal both of these stats. Driver 5 rightfully enters South Point 400 race weekend as an overwhelming odds-on favorite. It surely appears like Larson’s biggest enemy will be an unforced error on Sunday.
Christopher Bell
Trailing Larson by a slim margin in last fall’s South Point 400 was Christopher Bell. 2023’s runner up result after 61 laps led was the 20’s best showing in nine starts here. Bell was a close second to Larson again a week ago on the Charlotte Roval. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver wants to hit the ground running in the Round of 8 and be one spot better this weekend.
“I don’t think we can go into this weekend and afford to be cautious at all,” Bell said. “You’ll have to be aggressive, you are going to have to be earning stage points and competing for the win. I’m looking forward to getting back there and racing at one of my favorite racetracks. My team stepped up last year and we nearly walked away with the win. We have nothing short of a win on our mind heading back to Vegas this weekend.”
If anyone can rival Larson this weekend it may just be Bell. The six Playoff races so far have only seen the No. 20 be worse than seventh one time, with three top-fives. In mirror fashion to the last two seasons, team 20 seems to be heating up in perfect time for a title surge. Bell’s quest for a third-straight Championship 4 may leave Las Vegas on a winning high.
Tyler Reddick
Very similar to Bell last fall, Tyler Reddick followed Larson’s tracks for what felt like the entire race in March. Second in both stages and at the end, Reddick was the faster car in the closing laps but ran out of time. After a determined drive to make the Round of 8 on the Roval, Reddick hopes for a return to winning ways. Each of Reddick’s Vegas starts with Toyota have progressively gotten better. Can a 10th time at this track be when Reddick breaks into victory lane?
Between Las Vegas and Homestead, the No. 45 Toyota is a top-tier threat across both races. Amidst much off track drama, 23XI Racing eyes leaving Nevada one trophy richer.
William Byron
If anyone’s quietly turned up the heat both at Las Vegas and in these Playoffs, it’s William Byron. Driver 24 has three-straight Vegas top-10s including a win, and a top-three result in each of the last three weeks. Larson may be labelled by many as a Hendrick title favorite, but Byron is not far off his teammate. Expect this duo to both be amongst the winning contenders in Sunday’s closing laps.
“I’m proud of the round we had the last three weeks,” Byron said. “We executed everything like we needed to. Hopefully we can do the same this round. Ideally, we would lock ourselves into the final round in one of the first two races so we can put all our efforts into Phoenix. If not, if we just do what we did this last round, hopefully it’s enough to advance on. I know our team is capable of it.”
Seven of the last eight Las Vegas races have seen Byron be out front. If Larson stumbles at all, expect the No. 24 to be right there to pounce. Second, third, and third across the last round show that Byron is slowly building back towards a breakout win.
Joey Logano
Given new life as a Round of 8 contender again, Joey Logano is more than eager for Las Vegas. Driver 22 has three wins here, most recently this race two years ago. That win propelled Logano to an eventual championship-winning drive in Phoenix, a feat the Penske team hopes to repeat. From out to in again, Logano says the mental approach to this weekend doesn’t differ a ton.
“[We’re] right back in it and the goal was the same, whether we were in the driver’s championship still or not,” Logano said. “The owner’s side of it still mattered to us, so the mindset doesn’t change. The energy doesn’t change. We’re still going out there to maximize the day and win it if we can. That’s the goal, so I can’t say it changed much. Did it bring some excitement that this piece of it is still there? Yeah, absolutely. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel that way, but it doesn’t change much from the way it affects us as a race team.”
Among the traditional crop of NASCAR tracks, Las Vegas is Joey Logano’s statistical peak with a 9.9 average finish. Penske is far from a stranger to unearthing blinding success in the Round of 8; Logano cannot be overlooked in the next three weeks.
Martin Truex Jr
Las Vegas may be Martin Truex Jr’s last true shot at a career-ending triumph. The two-time Vegas victor boasts top-10s in 13 of his last 14 starts here, dating back to 2017. Gen 6 or Next Gen, Furniture Row or Joe Gibbs Racing, Truex and Las Vegas just pair perfectly together for sustained success.
“(Las Vegas is) an interesting place,” Truex said. “It’s fast and high-speed and has tire falloff but, for whatever reason, it’s a place that has unique asphalt, and when the tires cool off, you can fire off and run one or two fast laps. These days, with these cars, if you can get that clean air and get those two to three car lengths out in front of guys who are on better tires behind you, and guys between you and the four-tire guys, you have a huge advantage for a few laps. It’s all about what the other guy does. You can be the only guy on two tires and you are a sitting duck, but if you have four to five guys behind you on two tires, you have a bit of a buffer, so it just depends on what goes on around you.”
“I expect it to be a great race out in Vegas. I love going out there and it’s a great racetrack. Vegas is a great track that’s wide and you can run all over. We saw a lot of guys run high there the last couple of years and we’ve also gotten better as a team at being able to get through the bumps and moving around. I’ve won there before and I’m always confident we can go out there and run up front and have a shot to get our Bass Pro Shops Camry to victory lane.”
Through 32 races so far in 2024, the NASCAR Cup Series has seen 18 drivers win. Truex breaking into Las Vegas victory lane would tie the all-time different winners record set in 2001 and 2022. Playoff contender or not, Truex can play spoiler like three others have already this postseason.
Who can push their chips to the middle of the table and walk away with a checkered flag on Sunday? Las Vegas falls in one of the most pivotal dates of the entire season. One of the elite eight winning this race would have an extra two weeks of preparation for Phoenix. The South Point 400 goes green Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. The all-important Round of 8 kickoff race has seen the eventual champion go to victory lane four times. It will be fun to see if this trend repeats itself; the best of the best are chasing the ultimate prize.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Chris Graythen/Getty Images
