NASCAR
Who Can Be a Surprise Underdog in the 2024 Xfinity Series Postseason?
A lion’s share of the spotlight and attention will rightfully be on the six drivers atop the Xfinity Series Playoff standings. The back half of the field is equally intriguing and compelling, however. Only 13 points separate all six of these drivers, guaranteeing a tight cut line battle from the drop of the green flag in Kansas. Can any of these drivers navigate their way through the postseason and possibly earn a Cinderella spot in Phoenix?
Sam Mayer – 2,011 points
Twice a winner this season, Sam Mayer knows exactly how to manage the emotions of these Playoffs, being a Phoenix finale contestant in 2023. Mayer’s 2024 has been marred by many inconsistent results though, with an average finish of 18.4. 11 top-10s for the No. 1 team is also third-fewest of the 12 Playoff contenders. In short Mayer says he must execute at this team’s fullest ability, unlike much of this season to date, to make another deep run.
“We had a really rough Playoff run last year in the grand scheme of things,” Mayer said. “We did a really good job executing when we had to, but we put ourselves in bad spots where we had to win. We’re looking to hopefully not be in that same spot this time around. Yeah we got away with it last year, made the Championship 4 and had a shot at it in the end, but we definitely want to do a better job of executing this year. That starts off with having a good run at Kansas, getting through Talladega and hopefully the same as last year at the Roval.”
“Going out on a high note is exactly what we want to do. There’s only one way to do it and that’s execute. That’s really going to be the word we’ll use the next seven weeks, just execute on what we have to do. We didn’t do the best job of that last year, so we’re looking to take that and learn from it this year. We hope to turn things around in a good way and hopefully hoist that trophy for JRM and everyone on board this car.”
Mayer is perhaps the biggest question mark of a driver in these Playoffs, with his clutch abilities shown last year. The Roval as a last chance saving grace for the 1 may lead to the same riches as 2023. Past that race though, this team is far from a regular winning threat in 2024. They may have to pull off a Round of 8 miracle for another Phoenix showing.
Riley Herbst – 2,010 points
From the sidelines last year to contention this year, Riley Herbst makes his fourth Xfinity Playoff showing. Despite not making the 2023 cut, team 98 still broke into victory lane at Las Vegas as a non-contender. Herbst’s run that day still lives on for just how dominant it was, winning by 15 seconds. If any shred of that level of performance returns for the Stewart-Haas crew, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
“Last year, it was frustrating but my goal in January last year was not to make the Playoffs,” Herbst said. “I’ve done that before twice and had no success and got bounced in the first round. My goal in January of last year was to win a race, and so as disappointed as it looked from the outside to not make the Playoffs, it was obviously a little bit frustrating, but once I got that win at Vegas, that was my goal. Obviously, I wish it would have came sooner so that we would have made the Playoffs, but it wasn’t a lack of sleep because I didn’t make the Playoffs last year. It was gonna be a lack of sleep if I didn’t win because I knew time was running out. My sand dial was definitely running out, but luckily we got the win and that was very, very big. As far as this year, we definitely have expectations and goals that we set in January and a lot of those are kept in Davin’s room and that’s kind of between us, but I will say that it’s to go further in the Playoffs than I have before. That’s all I’m really gonna get into about that, but I feel like we can achieve those goals and we should be just fine if we execute to a high level, which I know we can.”
Herbst’s lone win so far this year came at Indianapolis, featuring the hybrid superspeedway aero package. No track quite like that will appear over the next seven weeks, but all hope is not lost for Herbst. Defending champion teammate Cole Custer credited the No. 98 with SHR’s ability to find late-season speed in 2023. Should the 98 or the 00 stumble onto something again, both cars may be eyeing the Phoenix stage.
Sheldon Creed – 2,007 points
Call him Silver Medal Sheldon or Second-Place Creed, there is one stat that driver 18 wants erased. Sheldon Creed now has 13 career Xfinity Series runner-ups, but is still 0-96 in the win column. Creed’s apparent lack of late-race luck is not from a lack of trying. Rather, Creed hearkens back to another recent Joe Gibbs Racing Xfinity driver who he mirrors.
“Yeah, obviously Daniel (Hemric) and others have proved you can point your way in (the Championship 4) and win the championship,” Creed said. “I think Matt Crafton did it in 2019. So, it is possible. You have to be really consistent, really good to do that. I think we do have the consistency and speed which we’ve shown in the last two-to-three months. I don’t want to bank on that, I guess. I want to be consistent the next seven races, but I would really love to win in this first round, win stages so our points are up and would love to go win Las Vegas or Homestead and have an ‘off weekend’ in Martinsville.”
“Yeah, I feel like [winning] will be a huge weight off my shoulders. Obviously, this has been riding on me for three years now. Yeah, I don’t know, I’ll for sure be relieved. And it’s going to happen, one of these days. I thought it was going to happen just a couple weeks ago at Darlington. Yeah, once we win, I have a feeling they’ll come a little easier and hopefully more often. Yeah, I think at this point, where everything is at, you have to win races if you want to go to Cup and have a paid-for ride and not have to bring money to a Cup team. That’s the goal. Obviously, I think I’m consistent enough to maybe have Cup teams interested, but they want to see winners and I have to do that more often.”
Already moving onto the Haas team for 2025, Creed wants nothing more than to head into his new ride with a trophy or two. Much like with Hemric in past seasons, team 18 does have the consistency to make Phoenix. Will history repeat itself with a highlight-reel and universally-beloved maiden victory for the big hardware?
AJ Allmendinger – 2,006 points
To call 2024 an uncharacteristic season would be apt for AJ Allmendinger. The veteran who is Cup Series-bound once again has yet to find victory lane this year, with a best result of third. The No. 16 found this season-high finish in two of the last three races, however. Kaulig Racing was admittedly a bit off to start the season, but they appeared to have slowly been trending back to their regular winning ways. The 42-year-old may just have one more fruitful Playoff run ahead in his Xfinity Series career.
“I feel very fortunate that Matt Kaulig, Chris Rice, and everyone at Kaulig Racing believe in me enough to try and help develop the racecars. That’s part of the reason of going back to the Xfinity Series this year. I wanted to stay in Cup, but they wanted me to come back and try to help get the cars in the right direction. I feel like we’re getting there.”
“We’re definitely not starting the Playoffs with me thinking like we have the fastest racecars. But I do believe now that when we’re at our best, we can compete with anyone. The beginning of the year, it probably wasn’t like that, and that’s twofold. I think it’s an uphill battle to get on a hot streak to try to win this championship. What I’ve experienced the two years previous in Xfinity, with all the bonus points was basically just try not to mess up. One year we did make the final four, and one year we didn’t because of bad luck at Vegas.”
“This year, we have to be more on our game. We’re starting behind, and I feel like Kansas is a racetrack where we can go run inside the top-five or six and start the Playoffs off right. That being said, part of this is still trying to make the cars as best I can until I get out of them. Part of this is to try and make sure Christian (Eckes), Daniel (Dye), and Josh (Williams) can unload these cars next year and be the toughest guys in the field. There’s a little bit of both.”
“I don’t know if there was a turning point, it’s definitely been a slow process of trying to navigate what part of the racecar is off. It’s not just one thing most often than not. I feel like through the first 10 or 11 races, it was trying to figure out or pinpoint for me where we were weak and where I had to be better., We’ve started doing that, I think the schedule’s been a bit challenging with places like Indy and Michigan or Atlanta, where we haven’t seen a normal intermediate race in awhile. Kansas will be the first one of those in a bit, so we’ll see what we got and if it has speed when we unload.”
Allmendinger will be a heavy favorite in three weeks at the Charlotte Roval. AJ is gunning for a sixth-straight winning year on this track. He is also a recent Talladega winner, giving team 16 ample confidence at two of the three opening round tracks. Should AJ make the Round of 8 though, this Kaulig crew may need outside help to possibly mount a Championship 4 charge. Outright winning speed on traditional ovals is still lacking in the 16. They may have to rely on others’ taking themselves out at Martinsville.
Sammy Smith – 2,001 points
Back in the Playoffs for a second-straight year is Sammy Smith. Now in a JR Motorsports Chevrolet, Smith’s season has been highlighted by a pair of third-place runs at Charlotte and Portland. Smith admittedly took awhile to get adjusted to his new surroundings early this year. He does have confidence though that the No. 8 can join their teammates as title threats in the coming weeks.
“The goal is to go compete for a championship in Phoenix,” Smith said. “I feel like we’ve got a little bit of work ahead of us with not having any Playoff points and being so low on the bracket. I feel like we can go do that though. For me as a driver, I’ve grown tremendously over the year, just having that switch from JGR to JRM. It’s been challenging and different, more than I expected it to be. I think just trying to balance that and trying to figure out what the biggest differences are and trying to acclimate myself to the team, the processes, the Chevy program, stuff like that.”
“I wouldn’t say anything’s caught me off guard, I’d just say that it’s all been a challenge. We obviously haven’t had the year that we wanted to. Barely making it into the Playoffs is not where we expected to be and it’s not where we need to be running every week. We had spots throughout the year where we’ve shown moments of speed and success that could have potentially lead to wins. We’ve also had a lot of mistakes this year as a team. Obviously I made the change a couple races ago with my new team, new crew chief, everybody. So that’s been a whole other learning side of things, just trying to figure that stuff out. But I’ve really enjoyed it and hopefully we continue to build that into the Playoffs.”
Smith’s third-place run at Charlotte may be a good omen for this weekend’s Playoff opener. Kansas will be the first traditional intermediate track for Xfinity cars since May. Should the 8 stay clean and finish well, he may be positioned nicely on the defense heading into Talladega and the Roval.
Parker Kligerman – 1,998 points
Big Machine Racing and Parker Kligerman make a second consecutive Xfinity postseason showing, with 12 top-10s to their name. The No. 48 has been a stout competitor on superspeedways and road courses alike. On paper the Round of 12 should lay out nicely for them. Kligerman does start in a points hole, however, due to an L1 spoiler penalty from Michigan. Deficit or not, the mood has not changed in the 48 camp looking ahead.
“The mood is pretty high,” Kligerman said. “We have great results at all the opening round tracks. At Kansas, we were a top-five car and I think we can improve on that. Talladega, I mean whatever I need there it’s always been there, we’ve always been up front in every superspeedway race ran together. Then the Roval last year, I actually thought it was one of our best performances. I think it was our highest points total, because we went towards points in that battle we were in. We were just short of making the next round though. Even with the course’s changes, I still think it’s an opportunity for us, like any road course in general. I think we’re at 11 road course top-10s together with Big Machine Racing. I think these three tracks are great for us. So there’s a high level of confidence that as long as we execute and do what we’ve done, we should be in pretty good position.”
“I know we’re starting 12 points down, but I really think that’s such a tight situation. Just look at Daytona, we had a 38 or 40-point swing on the cut line that day, and you look at what happened to Allgaier at Bristol. I think it’s a huge opportunity as long as we just perform. I don’t think we have to do anything spectacular, but I do think Talladega’s one that we would circle as a possible win. Then the Roval’s taken care of.”
Making his final few starts as a full-time driver, Kligerman has an evident sense of contentment and joy with each lap he turns. The only box left unchecked on Kligerman’s racing résumé is an Xfinity Series win. Don’t be surprised to see the 48 team find the right circumstances and put together a walk-off victory.
The opening round’s wildcard races especially will be fun for this half-dozen drivers in particular. Kansas has also shown its fair share of wild Xfinity Series moments, giving the 2024 Playoffs a hectic and chaotic first few stops. Should any of these drivers make some noise in the first round and transfer onto the Round of 8, they would be shaping up for a David vs. Goliath championship battle. Every NASCAR Playoffs has its surprise team or two; it will be entertaining to see who jumps off this page.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Chris Graythen/Getty Images
