NASCAR
Who are the Top Contenders for the Xfinity Series Crown?
With 26 races and nearly 6,000 miles of racing in the rearview mirror, a few championship favorites have emerged in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Their seven-race postseason dash for the title begins this weekend at Kansas. A lot of anxious drivers are eyeing a season-altering win ahead of a few looming wildcard races. Who are the best of the best in Xfinity, and who could be standing tall on the championship stage at Phoenix in seven weeks?
Justin Allgaier – 2,034 points
2024 to date for Justin Allgaier has been nothing short of very high highs and equally low lows. The two-time race winner also has a series-leading 14 stage wins, vaulting him up to the top seed. Nowhere was the dichotomy of Allgaier’s season more evident than Bristol on Friday night. The No. 7 led laps early and appeared to be best in the field, before running into many issues not of his own doing.
Team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr recently said that Allgaier has all the pieces and the team behind him to win that elusive title. Allgaier heads into these Playoffs as the most experienced of the bunch and will heavily lean on his years of wisdom.
“I think the hard part is trying to regenerate something different after having success year over year and still not getting a championship,” Allgaier said. “How do you go into Phoenix and have a different school of thought or mindset?”
“I think for us this year’s been really weird, arguably it’s been finish-wise one of the worst years we’ve had. It just seems like if it could go wrong it’s gone wrong. We’ve put ourselves in that position at the ends of these races numerous times. We’re still right there points-wise. Still doing all the right things. We’re still going into these Playoffs as the points leader with the most amount of bonus points ending the regular season. I think that’s where it’s been really odd, a very weird season. I feel like that’s not just been us though. If I look at the results from a lot of the other competitors, we’ve all kind of had these really odd years, where finishes just haven’t been the same. Lots of shakeups in the running order at the ends of these races.”
“While I would love to go to Phoenix and have a shot at a championship, I also have got to get there. If I look at the two rounds before the finale, there’s a lot of unknowns, question marks, things that could go in your favor or against you. We just have to go into it with a mindset of knowing we scored a lot of points this year. We did all the right things. Even if we don’t have the finishes to show for it, we’ve had the points to show for it. We can point our way just as easily as you can win your way in. We want to win the races, we want to lock ourselves in early. Either way I feel like we have the ability to do both. That’s something that I think comes from just knowing you have fast racecars week in and week out at the racetrack.”
Allgaier has been either first or second in points since July, but has not won in the last five races. The 7’s last three starts have seen arguably their worst stretch of the year, all with results outside of the top-10. Allgaier may be the top dog, but he has to rekindle some of his early season magic to truly contend. A win is far from necessary for the 7 in this opening round, but at least one look at a victory should be expected.
Cole Custer – 2,028 points
Reigning Xfinity Series champion Cole Custer was the third seed a year ago, and has bettered that by one spot in 2024. The most recent race winner as well, Custer battled back from very early wall contact to dominate the second half at Bristol. Both driver and team are moving on next year; this crew wants to remain undefeated and go back-to-back with Xfinity Series championships.
“I think it would mean a ton to everybody at our organization with everything that’s gone on this season,” Custer said. “Everybody has worked so hard and has had every excuse to not have a great year, so I feel like everybody has stayed together extremely well. We’ve been able to put really fast cars on the racetrack and, like you said, going back-to-back championships is something that’s a definite statement. It’s something that’s really cool to do and we have such a great opportunity to accomplish that this year, and you just don’t get many once in a lifetime opportunities like that, so we want to put everything that we can into it to try and make it happen.”
“I think it’s one of those things that it’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win championships in NASCAR, and go out there and try and win back-to-back championships. That’s something that you might not get ever again in your life, so to put everything we can into it right now is what we need to do and that’s what we’re gonna do. I think we have a huge opportunity in front of us and we’re gonna try and get it.”
To be the best, 11 other teams will have to beat the best from a year ago in the 00. Custer’s electric 2023 Playoff run saw incredible consistency out of the gate with three-straight top-six results. Very similarly to a year ago, Custer saw a pair of regular season wins in 2024. Barring catastrophe, the 00 should be a race-winning threat just about everywhere. Custer is positioned very nicely for another Phoenix push, and perhaps more late-race heroics to end on top.
Austin Hill – 2,025 points
One phrase to describe Austin Hill this season is a superspeedway merchant. All of Hill’s three regular season wins came on drafting tracks–Daytona to open 2024 and a season sweep of both Atlanta races. Playoff race two at Talladega appears to already have Hill’s name on the trophy, but that’s far from certain.
Past superspeedways, Hill has seen 15 top-10s keep the No. 21 among the top of points all year long. Hill is still trying to make his first Championship 4 appearance in any NASCAR division, and believes 2024 can be the year where everything falls right.
“Short answer could be not winning a race right when we start the Playoff round, that’s not easy to do,” Hill said. “I feel like there’s been plenty of ways that I have missed out on making the final four. A lot of it could be my doing, and some of it has been out of my control.”
“I think one of the biggest areas is maybe just not doing a good enough job in the stages on getting enough points and maximizing them. Whether that’s just me not doing a good enough job on restarts, or the car just not being where I need it to be able to be inside the top-five for each stage. I think that’s kind of where we’re not separating ourselves enough.”
“I think we go into these Playoffs and we’re still aggressive and pushing limits. I’m doing a lot of things on the racetrack to try and make up spots. But I think at the end of the day we just have to do a better job of running inside the top-five each and every week. That starts with myself as a driver, and on the flip side of it the team, with us unloading and being just a little bit better when we get to the racetrack. That way we’re not having to dig ourselves out of a hole each and every week.”
Like Hill said, the 21 team has to come off the truck with greater speed each week to be in the ballpark for wins. Hill ranks as only the sixth-highest stage point earner in Xfinity this year. His championship-caliber competition almost all trump him in this camp. Top-five speed throughout entire races is perhaps the biggest bullseye being chased by the 21 crew.
Chandler Smith – 2,024 points
Amidst his first full season with Joe Gibbs Racing, Chandler Smith took two early season wins and is reset to the fourth seed. Despite being winless since March, the No. 81 does come into the Playoffs with three-straight top-fives. Smith is confident his team can keep this performance rolling and put together a deep postseason run.
“I feel like the sky is the limit for our 81 group,” Smith said. “We’ve showed up with speed – week-in and week-out. Some weekends, we miss it, and still have speed – just the balance isn’t quite right, but we still have speed, which is good. It is just how do we fine tune the balance? Some weekends, we haven’t been able to hit on the balance right, but some weekends we do, like we did this past weekend at Bristol. We got the pole, still was able to lead a good bit of laps, finished third. Those are all really good positives. We’ve been on a good streak these last few weeks, leading into the Playoffs. Every team goes through somewhat of a drought in their season – it doesn’t matter if it is Kyle Larson, Chandler Smith – everyone goes through somewhat of a drought. We were going through ours’ about midway through the summer and it was just, ‘when was it going to stop?’ It is one of those things that – what is it? What is causing it? Nobody can ever pinpoint, well that is what it is, business as usual, s–t just happens. Luckily, slowly ours started turning around, we started picking up good finishes and started bringing better racecars. I feel like we are in a pretty solid spot heading into the Playoffs.”
Smith was the spring winner at Phoenix Raceway, so he has that in his favor should he make the Championship 4. The 81 has carried the banner for the title-eligible Joe Gibbs Racing cars this year, with 16 top-10s including the last five races. If Smith and his team are truly past their drought, they should have the speed to win almost anywhere over the next seven weeks.
Shane van Gisbergen – 2,017 points
One of the most hyped NASCAR rookies in recent memory, 2024 has been drinking from a firehose for Shane van Gisbergen. The New Zealand racing sensation has earned three victories in the five road course races so far, and totaled eight top-10s. SVG is still very much in his oval racing infancy, with standout runs from Atlanta, Phoenix, Indianapolis, and Darlington. Driver 97 has yet to visit a few of the tracks he will see ahead in the Playoffs, but his confidence has not wavered a bit.
“There’s three tracks that are unknowns for me really,” van Gisbergen said. “Those would be Kansas, Homestead, which I haven’t been to, and then Vegas. We did that one at the start of the year, but I didn’t get many laps at all. I had to miss most of practice and then we had the motor blow up in the race. So those tracks are probably my focus to learn and get better at, while the other ones I kind of understand and know what to expect, what I want in the car. So yeah, we should be fine.”
“The Playoff system is crazy, I studied it last night trying to understand how it works. It’s the most overcomplicated racing series I’ve been a part of. I think it’s pretty cool though. It’s great for the fans. As a driver, watching the Cup Series especially last week at Bristol, how everyone was under pressure and racing, making mistakes, feeling that pressure, it’s wild. I don’t know obviously how I’m going to react to it, been thinking that I just want to race like I have been. Just keep doing my best and staying out of trouble and keep scoring points. When it comes to that time, are you going to feel the pressure? How are you going to be under it? I don’t know the answer yet, but I’m looking forward to finding out.”
It’s been a very unique departure from an average NASCAR rookie watching SVG learn on the fly this year. While he may be out to lunch in any race’s first half, both driver and team slowly adapt and begin fine tuning to pick off spots by the finish. Of the seven Playoff tracks, SVG has seen four of them before, and another one is the Charlotte Roval. The No. 97 will be heavily favored on the new-look Charlotte circuit, with Kaulig winning there each of the last five years. SVG may ultimately fall short of a transfer spot due to stage points, but his oval prowess only increases with every lap ran.
Jesse Love – 2,013 points
Another rookie who’s taken very well to Xfinity competition is California’s Jesse Love. The 19-year-old took a first career win at Talladega in April, and has batted .500 with top-10s all season long. In near lockstep with veteran teammate Austin Hill, Love is ready to bring another Xfinity title back to Welcome.
“I think I have a pretty good understanding of [Playoff racing] now,” Love said. “I still want to lean on a few people at RCR, especially Kyle [Busch], I want to give KB a call in the next few days before we go to the first one. Hope he just kind of gives me a nugget or two to keep in the back of my head as I go into the Playoffs.”
“But really, I like the speed we’ve had the last few weeks, dating back to Dover, one I feel like I could have won, if not for that flat tire. Ever since then, we had a two-month stretch where we couldn’t quite put together finishes. We still had our moments of being really good, and had shots to win, but the consistency wasn’t there. Kind of over the last month, we’ve started to put the LEGOs back together, all the parts and pieces where they need to be. I feel like we’re in a good spot now to go to these races and run well and not have to overdo anything.”
“For the first round, my thought process is just not to wreck, keep the fenders on it, finish all the laps. Just get what the car will give me. I think if we do that, the first round should be pretty smooth sailing for the most part.”
“I feel like the Charlotte Roval’s going to be one that I can really take advantage of. We’ve been really good on road courses this year, with the exception of Portland. But other than that I feel like if I just sail through the first round without a bad day, we’ll be fine.”
“Then if I can win one and get some points built up for the Round of 8, which will be harder for sure, that’s ideal. But I think that round again has tracks that are really good for me. That’s where we’ll have to take the gloves off and make something happen. Then where we’re at in our points situation, where others are looking, going to try and go off the cuff of it and take each race as it comes. I have the thought process where if I maximizing the day with myself and the team, that we’re good enough for Phoenix. I think if we can get there we’ll have a really good shot at winning. That’s my mindset over the next few weeks.”
Love has loads of experience within the walls at RCR to help assist him through a maiden Playoff run. This team must find a way to continue the hot streak they’ve seen over the last four weeks, where they’ve seen no result worse than eighth. RCR has a knack for coming in clutch with Xfinity Series championship drives; Love hopes to add his name onto their lengthy list of winners.
This year’s Xfinity Series Playoff grid is very talent-heavy and a unique mix of youth and experience at the top end. The Xfinity Series postseason begins Saturday with the Kansas Lottery 300 from Kansas Speedway. The green flag will fly at 4 p.m. ET on The CW, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. It will be fun to watch each of the 12 elite drivers battle the trials and tribulations of the coming seven weeks, and reward one in the end.
Written by Peter Stratta
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