NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Win Big in Playoff Round Two at Watkins Glen?
Upstate New York’s Watkins Glen International plays host to its inaugural NASCAR Playoff date this weekend. For 15 drivers, Sunday’s checkered flag means they’re a step closer to stock car racing’s ultimate prize–the Bill France Cup. Watkins Glen will look very different this year however, with softer tires being used to maximize falloff and conservative racing. Who can navigate the Empire State’s twists and turns to victory lane? Here are a few contenders for the Go Bowling at The Glen.
Tyler Reddick
An argument can be made that Tyler Reddick is the most talented road course racer today in Cup. The 23XI Racing driver and regular season champion has three past road course wins at three different tracks. All of these victories have come in the last two years. Reddick’s been surprisingly great on road courses in 2024, as well. Team 45 has a beat result of second on the Chicago Street Course, with two other top-10s across three races. Reddick’s also riding a series-best streak of nine top-10s in his last 10 starts.
Reddick’s Watkins Glen stats leave a bit to be desired, however. The California driver’s best New York outing was seventh two years ago, but he’s never been out of the top-10 here. Trying to establish himself as a championship front runner, expect Reddick to be lights out on Sunday.
Chase Elliott
Few drivers will have more outside attention on them at every Watkins Glen race than Chase Elliott. Driver 9 won here for his first career victory in 2018, and backed up that performance with another trophy in 2019. Even in his down year of 2023, Elliott’s strategy saw him slowly inching forward before ultimately running out of fuel. With seven career road course wins however, Elliott has yet to recapture the magic in the Next Gen car.
“[Road course racing] has become, in my opinion, way harder to do and to get the rear tires to live,” Elliott said. “It’s just hard. Anywhere that we go, the corner entry, the part of the corner that is narrow, is going to be an extreme challenge to pass.”
“ You look at Darlington very much the same way. It’s not like you can fan out and have a bunch of different options when you first turn off the wall. Martinsville is a great example of that, the road courses are a prime example of that. Phoenix is a little bit that way in [turns] three and four. So, when you leave the wall and you can’t get outboard or inboard of someone’s wake, it’s going to be a real challenge. And with road courses, there is one spot that you want to be on corner entry. Unless you are just dive bombing a guy. And even if you are doing that, that is not the optimum way to make a lap time either.”
Elliott’s back-to-back Watkins Glen triumphs started a run of five-straight wins here for Hendrick Motorsports. Three HMS Chevrolets have also seen a road course victory lane in 2024, all but Elliott. The stars may just align for another banner Elliott afternoon in New York; his horde of fans hope to leave the Empire State on top.
Martin Truex Jr
The last non-Hendrick Watkins Glen winner was Martin Truex Jr., all the way back in 2017. This victory was part of Truex’s blistering championship season. MTJ has seen four top-10s in the five races at The Glen since that day, but has yet to find the right feel again in Next Gen.
“We’ve been fast [there] for sure,” Truex said. “Not as much in the Next Gen car. But it’s going to be a lot different this time around, so open minded and we’ll prepare as hard as we can and see what shakes out.”
“It seems [flipping the stage] can be a good thing for me, personally. And it’d be a good thing for passing. Watkins Glen is so fast, and we’ve gone there the last few years with no tire fall off, so you can’t get close enough to a guy to make a pass. It’s simple as physics, right? You go up through the esses and lose five-to-six car lengths, it’s over. So, it’s going to help us be able to make passes if our car is good and that’s what we need at those kinds of places with our Reser’s Fine Foods Camry this weekend.”
Between a wealth of experience on this course and tire strategy, Truex is trending towards a breakout run. What is concerning about team 19 though is their apparent lack of momentum. The last six races have all seen Truex outside the top-20. Going for a final win in his swan song year, Watkins Glen could be a beacon of hope for Truex.
Kyle Larson
Elliott was Hendrick’s top dog at Watkins Glen, until Kyle Larson hit the scene. Larson’s first two outings in New York with the No. 5 both ended in victory lane, with an unusually off result last year. Even with an early exit in last week’s race, Larson is optimistic for another great day at The Glen.
“I’m definitely excited to get to Watkins Glen,” Larson said. “I read a stat last night I don’t think Hendrick Motorsports has lost there since 2017. We’ll see. I think it’s going to be a little different. It seems like there will be a little more tire falloff than normal, I don’t know how that will play a factor into things but regardless, I think our road course package and especially Watkins Glen is a really good package so, we should have some speed it’s just still a road course, so a lot of things can happen.”
Larson appears to have used his Playoff mulligan already in race one, with his Atlanta crash. Entering Watkins Glen only 15 points above the cut line, Larson must go for broke in trying to chase points or the win. History says the 5 team will be fast here, but they must stay mistake-free to remain alive in the title fight.
Ty Gibbs
Watkins Glen has been the site of four drivers’ first career win, and Ty Gibbs hopes it’s five. Through two career starts at The Glen, Gibbs has finished 26th and fifth a season ago. The sophomore sensation has four of his 12 Xfinity wins on road courses, including one at The Glen.
In Cup, Gibbs has seen four of his 11 career top-fives on road courses, with fifth here a year ago. Gibbs has seemingly done everything this year except pull into victory lane; the next two weeks are prime opportunities for the 54 to be number one.
William Byron
Last year’s Watkins Glen winner, William Byron left the field in the dust with one of the most dominant Next Gen races yet. The No. 24 started second and led 66 laps en route to the victory. This weekend Byron is trying to both defend his win and continue Hendrick’s Watkins Glen streak. With new softer tires though, Byron is well aware of big changes in store for everyone.
“I think it depends on pace in practice, how much [tires] fall off,” Byron said. “We’re going to have 40 minutes instead of 20, so you’re going to have more time to figure out what that pace drop off is and I think you’ll make your adjustments from there. Confident in my group that they’ll go through all those notes and look at the information and make good decisions.”
Byron is coming off a top-10 run to open his Playoffs. He hopes to maintain elite performance and execution in chasing a second-straight Championship 4 berth. Both Elliott and Larson earned back-to-back Watkins Glen wins, Byron will try and make this trend a three-peat within HMS.
New rumble strips, softer tires, and 90 laps of high-intensity Playoff action lie ahead for all drivers. The Go Bowling at The Glen goes green Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Nobody truly knows just how much the tires will wear, giving a sense of mystery and unknown to this entire weekend.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Chris Graythen/Getty Images
