NASCAR
2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Preview: Toyota
Five of the 16 spots in the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs are taken up by Toyotas. These drivers are responsible for eight wins throughout the regular season. Toyota’s Playoff field includes all of Joe Gibbs Racing, plus regular season champion Tyler Reddick from 23XI Racing. All of them are gunning for Toyota’s first Next Gen championship; here are their chances at surviving the 10-week battle ahead.
Christopher Bell – 2,032 points
Only one driver is eyeing a third-straight Championship 4 berth in Phoenix–Christopher Bell. Following clutch wins to make deep Playoff runs the last two years, Bell has broken out into a regular contender this year. Perhaps the only blemish on an otherwise stellar season for the 20 has been six DNFs. Bell enters the opening round as the second seed. No points buffer can change his apprehension to the first few races, however.
“I’ll be honest, the first round is the scariest it’s been in a long time with Atlanta, a superspeedway starting us off,” Bell said. “We all know how that can go. And then we go to Watkins Glen, which should be a normal race track, but with the expected tire degradation with the tire change that we’ve had, it could be a Bristol-style race where people are wearing tires out really early and struggling to make laps and having to pit all of the time. So, that could be another wild card race. And, then Bristol, I think everybody is expecting it to be more of the same as what we had in the spring. So, the first round could be very different than what we’ve seen in the past.”
“Well, I will tell you that I’ve [made the Championship 4] the past two years and I’m in a much better position now than I have been in the last two years. The plan is clear, and the path is right in front of us. We just have to execute, and we’ve got a little bit more wiggle room than we had the last couple of years.”
Bell may have three wins on the season, but he easily left as many if not more on the table. Should the 20 team continue their lights-out pace, more victories and another Cup chance may be imminent. Bell is arguably the Toyota team in best position to contend for 2024’s title. A dominant Phoenix win in March may have been foreshadowing for this team’s potential ceiling.
Tyler Reddick – 2,028 points
After a literal and figurative gutsy performance for the regular season championship, Tyler Reddick is reset to the third seed. Entering his second postseason with 23XI Racing, the championship has never been in closer grasp for Reddick. Driver 45 ended the regular season on a tear, with top-10s in eight of the last nine races. Reddick’s never began a postseason run this high in the standings, and hopes to keep the good times rolling.
“I don’t know if there is more pressure,” Reddick said. “Just as you get closer and closer to Phoenix, I think it just builds naturally. The longer you are in it, the better shot you have, so you kind of have to understand the moment and you have to set-up and perform and execute each weekend. This first round presents its challenges, but there are 16 of us, all in this together. If one of us has a bad day, there will probably be three or four of us that will too. Hopefully, we can weather the bad days and just not have them. That has been our strong suit, when things happen around us and we miss it. We will just see how it goes.”
Reddick should build off of his already best Playoff showing yet from 2023. In the final 10 races a year ago, the 45 earned one win and five top-10s en route to a career-best points finish. In 2024’s postseason, expect Reddick to surpass these totals.
Denny Hamlin – 2,015 points
Is 2024 finally the year for Denny Hamlin? Still chasing the elusive big trophy in his 19th season, Hamlin’s three wins have him as the sixth seed. Driver 11 would have been higher, if not for a misplaced motor and resulting L2 Penalty two weeks ago. Looking out the windshield now, Hamlin thinks his team is capable of championship-caliber performances on a weekly basis.
“I feel like our chances are as good as anyone,” Hamlin said. “Now, I would say that the 45, the 20, the 5 have a better chance because they have more Playoff points going into the Playoffs. But, ultimately, we’re one of the very few cars that can win any given week. So, no matter what points position we might find ourselves in, and we will be in a precarious points position at some point of the Playoffs. We always feel like we can go to the next track and win, so that’s on something that only a few cars can do.”
“It’s one thing to not have many Playoff points but then to not have them on tracks that you know that your result is not necessarily in always your hands, it certainly makes it a precarious position but it’s what we got and I’ll do the best that I can and I know that I’m going to go to the track with the same mindset and that’s to win every week.”
The opening two Playoff rounds are wildcard events for the entire field. Past that however, Hamlin is going for a Bristol three-peat and hardly has a bad track left this season. Driver 11’s postseason will be defined by execution and avoiding other’s errors. Hamlin has the team around him to make Phoenix, but will likely need a few luck bank withdrawals.
Ty Gibbs – 2,004 points
Sophomore sensation Ty Gibbs is the only Toyota driver with a maiden Playoff appearance in 2024. On the strength of career highs in every metric, Gibbs made the cut on points. Team 54 has seemingly done everything but win a race this season, something Gibbs believes can change in the coming weeks.
“I don’t know odds to be honest with you,” Gibbs said. “I don’t know numbers too much, but I feel like we are very strong at the upcoming tracks besides Atlanta and Talladega, because they are really out of our control. Bristol, we were really solid – last year and this year, and Watkins Glen, we were great last year – finished fifth. We were really fast. I would really love to go and make it as deep as we can, maybe make the final four. I’m going to go try and win every race that I get into and do the best I can with I have.”
“I think that the experience is so big, especially for somebody like me that is so young and doesn’t have a lot of experience. It is so important and good to have. I’m sure that everyone here that is interviewing me would say the same thing with their interviewing careers, and their first years of experience in it. You just learn so much as you keep going.”
Gibbs may be lacking in the experience department, but this team has been close to a few wins this year. A first-time winner amidst the Playoffs is a rare feat, but it has happened before. Should all the stars line up just right, Gibbs may taste Cup victory lane very soon.
Martin Truex Jr – 2,004 points
From a first Playoff bid to a last one, Martin Truex Jr makes his 11th postseason showing. The 2017 champion and three-time runner-up is in rare air he’s not experienced in over a decade though. Truex made the postseason having yet to win a race and as the last seed. Even with so few bonus points to start, Truex’s vast wealth of experience may help guide his team forward.
“I think [being a past champion] makes it easier, I really do,” Truex said. “I don’t know if the other guys who have won it before feel the same, but you just feel less pressure. It’s so hard to win in this format. You can have a perfect season but run second at the last race and don’t win it. And that’s a lot. If you’ve never won a championship and you want to, you understand just how difficult that is at this sport, at this level. Everybody knows how hard it is to do. I think you’re just looser, more confident after you’ve done it as you’re like, ‘okay, at least I have one.’ It’s a different mindset. We were there five times in the final four, and just got one of them. Three of those times, we ran second. Two of those times, we dominated the race. Dominating doesn’t mean anything. (Kyle) Larson dominated Darlington the other night and finished fourth. And that’s the reality. You can dominate nine races, and you can be beat in the 10th and not be the champion. That’s it, it’s really hard to deal with and think about. So, once you have one, it’s a lot easier.”
“It’s definitely possible. You win one race in the first two rounds, that’s a good chunk of points. You know, the confidence and momentum that come with it, it’s totally doable. We’re going to have to win. I don’t think we’ll be able to point our way into the final four from where we’re at. We’re going to have to win some races.”
“[Our] approach is the same as always, right? Prepare as best we can and go try to execute. Yeah, Atlanta’s going to be tough. Daytime race there, track’s getting older, cars won’t handle as well. It’s going to be a lot tougher than the spring. And the potential for chaos is higher. So, I don’t know, the approach is to out and do the best we can do.”
It would be sweet to see Truex contend for or even with a championship on his way out the door. In reality however, this team has seen a summer stretch to forget plagued with many mistakes. MTJ’s last top-10 was Pocono in July, with multiple race-ending issues since then. Some of Truex’s best racetracks are ahead though; all hope is not yet lost on the 19 finding victory lane one last time.
With five shots at the Bill France Cup, Toyota hopes to unleash a 10-week reign of terror. A very eclectic mix of drivers young and old, experienced and green define Toyota’s Playoff lineup. Toyota hopes to cap off a very successful 2024 season with their fourth Cup title. Occupying both ends of the standings has their teams in very different situations for the marathon run to Phoenix.
Written by Peter Stratta
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