NASCAR
2024 NASCAR Playoff Preview: Chevrolet
Coming into the 2024 NASCAR season, one manufacturer did not have a new body style–Chevrolet. Camaros have remained constant with the same configuration from the start of the Next Gen era. 2024 has seen five Chevrolet drivers find victory lane, and get rewarded with Playoff berths. Ahead of the postseason opener this weekend, here are Team Chevy’s five drivers and their chances at winning big in Phoenix.
Kyle Larson – 2,040 points
An argument can be made that Kyle Larson’s been the fastest weekly threat in 2024. A series-leading four wins and second in the regular season standings by one point, team 5 has been in contention almost everywhere. Larson’s only roadblocks have been superspeedways, and a few unforced self-inflicted errors. Despite more victories than anyone else, a checkers-or-wreckers mentality has seen the 5 sideways a few times this season.
When Larson keeps his car pointed forward however, he is an elite car most weeks. Nowhere was this more evident than Darlington, leading 263 laps in a Stage-sweeping night. This consistency has paid dividends, with the 5 reset as the top seed. A wealth of bonus points to start the 10-week hunt should be enough insurance to ward off early elimination. Win it or wreck it has been a mantra for Larson’s career at large though. The 2021 champion saw this trend bite him in 2022, being eliminated in that year’s Round of 12.
“Yeah, I mean you definitely have your favorites and guys that are really fast every week,” Larson said. “But it’s NASCAR and Next Gen racing, so it’s always crazy. There’s always a couple of heavy guys that get knocked out somewhat early that could very well be deserving champions. So yeah, it’s hard to predict who’s going to be in the Championship Four. But yeah, there’s definitely some good teams that have the best shot currently. But like I said, a lot of stuff can happen. There’s always usually a team or two that turns things up a lot in the playoffs; executes really well and makes it pretty far. Maybe not to the Championship 4 every year, but can make it really far.”
Larson’s only weakness ahead from a track standpoint are the two superspeedways, including this weekend in Atlanta. Should Larson clear both of these hurdles, little stands between the 5 and another Championship 4 bid. Larson may only have four wins to-date, but he entered 2021’s postseason with similar stats.
William Byron – 2,022 points
Debatably the hottest team to start 2024 was William Byron’s 24 crew. They converted a Daytona 500 win into three of the first eight checkered flags this season. Since then though, Byron’s only seen five more top-fives.
In a similar vein to Jimmie Johnson from years past, Byron has an uncanny ability to come alive once the postseason begins. Summer slump or not, this team has been electric across both of their last two Playoff showings, with a maiden Championship 4 run last year. Entering this postseason as the fourth seed, Byron hopes to stay above water and mistake-free for the first few weeks. Including Atlanta, the 24 team has some of their best tracks in the near future.
“I just think we’ve been trying to… we’ve been waiting for this for a while,” Byron said. “As you soon as you win early in the season, your goals shift to what can we do to get bonus points and what can we do to get ready for the fall. That’s really what has been it’s about. Now we get to put that to the test and take it one race at a time.”
“I love [championship pressure]. I think it puts value to what you do. It’s what you work for as a team. When you’re at Hendrick Motorsports, the goal setting out for the season is to try and win big races and try to win the championship. For us, this is the time of year to do that, so there’s more meaning to it. For driving like a team we are, that’s the goal.”
The Rudy Fugle-led crew appears to be a Round of 8 lock, and have the potential to make Phoenix again. A lot more hungry drivers are in the same boat, however. It will likely take a Round of 8 win or three top-fives to put the 24 back into the final four. Byron does boast wins at all three of that round’s stops though; his Cup chances are looking ever better.
Chase Elliott – 2,014 points
From missing last year’s Playoffs with injury, Chase Elliott has roared back into title threat mode. Driver 9 ended his losing drought earlier this year at Texas, and has been one of the most consistent in the sport. It took until race 20 for Elliott to finish outside of the top-20, a mark he only saw one other time.
“I think our odds are good,” Elliott said. “I don’t really take a look at a particular round being a problem any more than any other. I think that if we can just get the things that we need to do, going right, I think we can be good all the way through it. Obviously, Darlington was bad for sure. We ran way worse than we had hoped to run there. But when I look back at Pocono, Indy, and Michigan, I was really happy where we were headed. Some of those runs and some of the pace that we had, I thought it was some of the best of the year. So, I think if we can just get back to that, I think it’s great and I think that is all we have to do. I think it’s just having that type of pace and that type of competitiveness. If we are doing that, we are going to give ourselves opportunities to win and eventually they are going to go your way. So, it’s just about being there on a weekly basis. You do that, and you will get your chances.”
On paper the 2020 champion should be in line with his two aforementioned teammates as strong title challengers. In reality though, Elliott has hardly shown winning speed this season, evident with only seven top-fives. Only 174 laps led outside of Texas also show a speed deficiency in the 9 camp. Elliott is no stranger to surviving and advancing through these Playoffs. He does have a steep hill to climb though if he is to make a fourth Championship 4 appearance.
Daniel Suarez – 2,006 points
One of the biggest feel-good moments of 2024 happened all the way back in race two. Daniel Suarez took his second career victory in a three-wide photo finish from Atlanta. Trackhouse driver No. 99 now returns to the site of his milestone win as part of the 16-driver cut. The opening round does line up well for Suarez, with Watkins Glen immediately following Atlanta.
“We have to take it one day at a time,” Suarez said. “It’s very important just to focus on the first round and then the second round. For right now, it’s one race at a time. That’s the main thing. All the energy is for Atlanta and then Watkins Glen and Bristol after that.”
“The first two rounds are predictable. You have to execute. If you have good days, you may be good enough, but you cannot have a bad day. We’ll see how things play out.”
Aside from the highlight reel win though, Trackhouse has noticeably taken a step back in performance this year. Suarez only has five other top-10s, and teammate Ross Chastain failed to ever find victory lane. Starting the Round of 16 in 11th, Suarez is currently in the green by a single point. Any miscue or error over the next three weeks could derail his entire season, however. Bristol being the cutoff race does Trackhouse no favors either; this company admittedly always struggles there. Suarez is not necessarily in must-win territory to advance onward, but he will need to score major points in this opening round.
Alex Bowman – 2,005 points
The last man into the postseason from Hendrick Motorsports, Alex Bowman made their Playoff field perfect with a Chicago Street Course win. Much like Chase Elliott, Bowman’s 2023 was defined by off-track injury, and he did not make the 16-man postseason. A year removed from that lowlight, the 48 has 12 top-10s, putting them 12th in points.
“I feel like we’ve been able to [turn things around] in the past, and honestly, a month ago everything was going pretty well,” Bowman said. “We had the crash at Indy. We crashed at Daytona. Obviously we had some issues last weekend (at Darlington). It’s been frustrating, but we’ve had some fast racecars sprinkled in there. Obviously we crashed at Michigan with another fast racecar. We just need to execute at a high level the next 10 weeks. We just need to buy in; have the whole team locked in and execute well.”
“I don’t think you can change much. I think you kind of have to – the way our sport works, you kind of have to live the whole year that way. Certainly working super hard and kind of trying to do everything that I possibly can. But I feel like sometimes you do that and almost get worse. Just have to go do my thing and go from there.”
Through sheer consistency, Bowman knows exactly how to progress in these cutthroat Playoffs. The Arizona driver has always made it out of the opening round as a contender. Having said that, looking past the Round of 12 may be lofty expectations for the 48 team. Bowman will likely need wins to stay alive in the postseason past the second round. All hope is not lost though, with Round of 12 stops at two of Bowman’s best tracks in Kansas and the Charlotte Roval.
NASCAR’s all-time winningest manufacturer, Chevrolet has five bullets in their gun to deliver them a 34th Cup Series title. Having perfect Playoff representation from Hendrick Motorsports, it’s tough to imagine Phoenix without at least one bow tie in contention. Daniel Suarez has an equal chance too for a run of his own, as the lone man from Team Trackhouse. It will be very fun to see how these five drivers progress over the next 10 weeks of racing.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credits to Alex Slitz and Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
