NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Will Playoff Drama Be Pegged at Darlington in the Southern 500?
367 laps around NASCAR’s toughest, grittiest track separate 16 drivers from the championship gauntlet. Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 is everyone’s last stand to make a Playoff push. Some drivers’ entire seasons may be changed with a win. Celebrating its diamond anniversary, Darlington Raceway is no stranger to being a championship preview. The winning team after 500 miles will be in title mode and surely have everything ready for the upcoming 10-week hunt. Can a surprise winner possibly shock everyone and take home the Johnny Mantz Trophy? Here are a few drivers to keep an eye on in Sunday’s marathon race.
Denny Hamlin
One of the best drivers if not top dog across Darlington’s 75-year lifespan is Denny Hamlin. Driver 11 boasts four wins at The Track Too Tough to Tame, including three in the Labor Day Classic. Hamlin’s 8.3 Darlington average finish trumps all drivers ever with more than two starts. Combined with a win, a runner-up, and over 300 laps led in the last three Southern 500s alone, Hamlin is a heavy co-favorite this weekend.
“We always go to Darlington expecting to win,” Hamlin said. “With our points situation, the goal this week is to qualify up front and have a shot to win both stages and a chance to win the race. That is all very realistic and attainable, so we need to execute and make it happen.”
Hamlin has added reason to be on kill mode for Darlington, coming off his massive L2 penalty. While out of the running for the regular season championship, every spot Hamlin does gain will help minimize the punishment’s blow. Hamlin is top-two 33% of the time around Darlington; the 11 hopes to enter the Playoffs with one more win.
Kyle Larson
Finally breaking through in last year’s Southern 500 was Kyle Larson. His maiden Cup win here, Larson had done everything shy of park it in victory lane before 2023. Following a late pit road error by Hamlin, Larson took command and led 55 laps en route to the win. Larson is eager to return to one of his favorite racetracks, and chase down the regular season title.
“I love racing at Darlington and it was cool to get that first (Cup) win there last year in the Southern 500,” Larson said. “We’re 17 points down but we’re going to race hard for stage points and hopefully be able to battle for the regular season championship at the end of the race.”
Hamlin’s insane Darlington record is only rivaled among active drivers by Larson, who has nearly 800 laps led here. The No. 5 has a knack for finding the front here, only to have some issue take them out. Larson ran into one of these hurdles in May; can September be kind to the 5 again?
Brad Keselowski
Two-time Darlington winner Brad Keselowski heads back to South Carolina walking a little taller. Keselowski finally ended his long losing drought here in May, and now eyes a season sweep.
Keselowski claims four-straight Darlington top-10s, only further proving this track favors veteran drivers. The RFK Racing No. 6 also enters the regular season finale with top-10s in the last two weeks. They hope to maximize all momentum possible before the postseason. The leaders tangling late parted the seas for Keselowski in the spring, the Ford should be in the mix again and aims for similar luck.
Martin Truex Jr
Possibly making his last ever Darlington start is another dominator here–Martin Truex Jr. MTJ has two trophies from the grizzled South Carolina track, most recently a lights-out run in May 2021. He has yet to replicate his past success with a complete race in the Next Gen Car, however. Despite this, Truex still holds his head high for one last dance with The Lady in Black.
“The challenge is that it’s a long race, a lot of pit stops and a lot of chances for things to go wrong,” Truex said. “Track position is obviously really important. To go through 13 sets of tires or whatever it is, and track position and what it means there, and to keep track position, it’s tough to stay up front and be consistently really strong. It’s tough to do there, and we hope we can do that on Sunday night with our Bass Pro Shops Camry XSE.”
“Darlington’s very unique, I love it. It’s really hard on tires and hard to get your car working good. For me, I’ve had a lot of really good runs there and have won a bunch of races and have been really strong in the last four years, so I really enjoy it. I had bad cars there years ago and I can see how that could be just miserable if you don’t have a good car. Fun track and a place I really like.”
Darlington may be one of the last tracks where Truex is seen as a winning favorite. Much like with Keselowski in May, the veteran hopes to erase a long losing drought on this one-of-a-kind aged surface. Truex will likely secure his postseason bid before the checkers fall on Sunday. This allows him a care-free shot at chasing the checkered flag.
Tyler Reddick
The fastest car by a country mile in May’s Darlington race was Tyler Reddick. The 23XI Racing Toyota led a whopping 174 laps, only to peter home in 32nd. Reddick was forced to pit road late following a slide job gone wrong on Chris Buescher. The current points leader aims to keep this title and hopefully take his first Darlington win on Sunday.
A Southern 500 win would certainly avenge May’s tough loss, and perhaps be Reddick’s biggest win yet in Cup. Driver 45 enters Sunday with a 17-point gap in the regular season championship, and hopes to stay red hot into the postseason. Earning top-10s in seven of the last eight races, the 45 may plant their flag among championship talks on Sunday.
Kyle Busch
The three weeks since the Olympic break have seen a wholehearted season turnaround for Kyle Busch. Driver 8 has legitimately contended across the last two weeks, with his RCR teammate winning the third time. Is this newfound speed too little too late for a Playoff push though? Busch faces win-or-go-home at Darlington, a track he’s won on once before. That win was all the way back in 2008, however.
“We certainly want to,” Busch said. “We ran good there the first time I ran with these RCR guys early last year, but we struggled mightily earlier this year. We’ll just have to go with hopefully a really good package that works and get our job done.”
Even with an unusually long Darlington dry spell, Busch has been close to victory here more recently. Seventh and 11th were his two results here in 2023, with over 150 laps led in 2022’s Southern 500 as well. Busch has seemingly found every way to lose a race this year. The stars may align for one of the most clutch wins in this Playoff era should Busch find the front.
The Labor Day weekend crown jewel will likely be the longest and most physical race of 2024. Add onto it the last chance element for the Playoffs, and Darlington’s drama will be sky high. The 75th annual Cook Out Southern 500 goes green Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Three Playoff tickets remain unpunched; can Darlington deliver a come-from-nowhere winner stunning everyone?
Written by Peter Stratta
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