NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Take Manufacturer Glory at Michigan?
High speeds and even higher drama will define NASCAR this weekend. The lightning-quick two-mile Michigan International Speedway plays host to one of the final Cup Series regular season races. Following up a Richmond throwdown that’s still being talked about, it’s now MIS’ turn in the spotlight. Fords have won the last nine races in the Irish Hills; can the Heritage Trophy stay in Dearborn? Will another manufacturer steal Ford’s thunder? Here are a few winning picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Ryan Blaney
Few tracks have been as consistent for Ryan Blaney in recent years as Michigan. Driver 12 boasts four top-10s in the last five races, including a 2021 win here. Perhaps the fastest Mustang to extend Ford’s Michigan victory streak, Blaney knows the task ahead of him this weekend.
“We take a lot of pride in that Heritage trophy and obviously with Ford being right there it’s really important,” Blaney said. “Edsel (Ford II) definitely makes sure that we know that it is important that we keep that there in Detroit at their home base. I was fortunate enough to win there a few years ago and have Edsel there and kind of see that excitement in him. It would be important to keep the streak going, so hopefully we can at least make a run at it and keep that trophy where it belongs.”
Blaney has a recent win at Pocono, and no finish worse than 11th between the last five races. The defending champion appears poised for a deep Playoff run at defending his Cup. Fifth in the regular season championship also leads the way for Ford. In short, Mustang No. 12 may be the blue oval’s best shot at a 10th-straight Michigan checkered flag.
Denny Hamlin
Despite no Michigan win since 2011, Denny Hamlin has been quietly great here. Hamlin leads all drivers in the Next Gen era with a perfect third-place average finish at MIS. Driver 11 has also been 11th or better in the last eight trips to Brooklyn. If anyone is to end the Ford streak at nine, the 11 may just be the favored one for the Heritage Trophy.
Hamlin’s recent results have been spotty, but his team’s execution and speed have not been lacking. Two runner-ups in the last three races also see team 11 seemingly in Playoff mode. Toyotas have been locked out of Michigan victory lane since 2015; Hamlin aims to change headlines leaving Sunday.
Kyle Larson
The last non-Ford to win at Michigan was Kyle Larson’s three-peat from 2016-2017. This stretch included the first career win for the 2021 champion, and quickly asserted him as ‘Two Mile Kyle.’ Larson has not been worse than seventh at Michigan since joining Hendrick, and hopes for another winning chance.
“I’ve always enjoyed racing at Michigan and I’ve had a lot of success there, including my first Cup win,” Larson said. “We have three races left in the regular season and we’re working hard to win the regular season championship and get those 15 extra points that go along with it. I would love to get another victory at Michigan — for the HendrickCars.Com team and for Chevrolet in their backyard.”
Larson is far from lost at finding pace on the high speed oval, but has been a step behind here in the Next Gen car. Larson’s only led two laps total across the last two Michigan races, but has still been seventh and fifth. Stats aside, Larson’s weekly speed has shone through almost everywhere this year. This has the 5 pinned as a favorite for Sunday.
Brad Keselowski
No Sunday celebration would be bigger than a Brad Keselowski win. The Rochester Hills native grew up coming to MIS, but is still searching for that breakthrough home track victory. BK currently ranks 0-26 on the two-mile oval, with a best result of second three times. This weekend may provide his best shot in several years at this elusive career checkbox, however. RFK Racing enters Michigan as the defending winners, and the No. 6 led 15 laps a season ago.
“I didn’t know it was nine races,” Keselowski said of Ford’s streak. “That’s a great streak to have. We certainly don’t take it for granted. Those streaks come and go, but it’s been a good track for Ford. We put a lot of emphasis on going there, which has paid off clearly. Doug Yates and the engine shop are really good about making sure we’ve got the power and the things we need, and we had a good race there last year with RFK to be able to win with Chris. Hopefully, I can make it number 10.”
After clawing as high as seventh in points, recent poor results have seen Keselowski drop a few championship spots. Every position matters in the 6’s quest to maximize bonus points for a top-10 regular season championship finish. Michigan should offer the veteran an opportunity to regain lost ground in this hunt.
Bubba Wallace
2022’s Michigan polesitter and eventual runner-up, Bubba Wallace is trending back towards a breakout victory. With laps led in both Next Gen Michigan starts, Sunday is a circled race on team 23’s calendar.
Few have been as consistent as the flagship 23XI Racing driver in recent weeks. The last five races have seen four top-10s for Wallace. This includes fifth and fourth in his two most recent outings. Points racing for his Playoff life, Wallace has climbed up to 12th in the regular season standings, and is currently in the postseason by three points.
Richmond was perhaps Wallace’s least-successful track left in the regular season, and he left there in the top-five. If Wallace continues this torrent run in Michigan, he should be a winning contender.
Austin Dillon
Nobody in NASCAR has seen higher highs and lower lows this week than Austin Dillon. The Richmond winner had his Playoff eligibility revoked on Wednesday, meaning he’s must-win again to make the cut. Michigan has been a consistent track for Dillon before, with five top-10s.
“Michigan International Speedway is a big, fast place. It’s one of the roughest tracks we race on,” Dillon said. “Michigan is always a place where you’re trying to keep the gas pedal down and do whatever it takes to keep the momentum up. You get some good drafts there and you can make some big moves. You will see three or four wide action into the corner sometimes, and the race has gotten better over the years. ECR’s engine package is very good. You always see ECR engines race very well. We have to perform in Dow’s backyard, and I feel like we have a serious shot at winning.”
Was RCR’s lights-out Richmond speed a fluke, or a sign of brighter times ahead? A week after stunning many doubters with race-winning pace, Dillon hopes to turn heads again. Car No. 3 will likely have a tougher road ahead though, since a few drivers are still less than pleased with Dillon.
Cook Out 400 on Sunday, August 11. Credit: Peter Stratta/TSJSports
Four Playoff berths still remain for the taking as NASCAR heads north to Michigan. One driver on the outside looking in is last year’s Michigan winner, Chris Buescher. The FireKeepers Casino 400 goes green Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. After Richmond delivered a season’s worth of chaos, can Michigan possibly live up to this hype?
Written by Peter Stratta
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