NASCAR
A Look at the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Bubble with Four Races Left
When the Olympics break concludes in two weeks, four races will remain in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. Through 2024’s opening 22 races, 12 drivers have secured a Playoff berth by winning. This leaves four spots open for the taking, with plenty of hungry drivers eager to fill them. Here are the drivers currently battling for those final Playoff positions and their outlook over the coming weeks.
Martin Truex Jr +108 points
Perhaps the only winless driver feeling safe for the Playoffs is Martin Truex Jr. Despite being 0-22 to start off 2024, MTJ finds himself fifth in the regular season standings, and more than 100 points clear of the cut line. Truex’s year has not been without winning chances, but instead has been defined by bad luck at almost every turn.
The retirement tour for the 2017 champion may not have seen a trip to victory lane yet. All hope is not yet lost though on the 19 taking another checkered flag. Truex led 228 laps at Richmond Raceway in March, where the Cup season resumes in two weeks. Truex is the only driver on this list not sleeping uneasy over the next month, having a solid points cushion thanks to his consistency.
Ty Gibbs +42
Labeled by many as a 2024 Playoff lock and breakout first-time winner was Ty Gibbs. While that elusive checkered flag still haunts team 54, Gibbs is in position to make the top-16 cut. 11th in points and nine top-10s have defined 2024 so far for the sophomore driver. Gibbs has also earned two poles this year, and was runner-up at Darlington.
Barring any new winner, Gibbs should feel comfortable to clinch a maiden postseason appearance next month. The South Carolina track where he saw his career-best showing also closes out the regular season. It is not yet out of the question to see the 54 waltz into the Playoffs as a winner.
Chris Buescher +17
Heartbreak has defined 2024 to date for Chris Buescher, being no more evident than back-to-back weeks in May. The RFK Racing No. 17 lost out in a record-close photo finish at Kansas, only to be wrecked while going for the lead the next week at Darlington. These were Buescher’s best winning chances so far, but the Ford team has reason for upcoming optimism.
Buescher’s late summer surge a year ago saw wins on three of the four remaining tracks in the regular season. Between Richmond, Michigan, and Daytona, the 17 should be in contention to earn another win or two. What was once a safe cushion for Buescher though has drastically shrunk down to a mere 17-point gap. Any new winner would put the 17 at risk of missing the Playoffs entirely. RFK Racing must be on the attack over the next month, and Buescher must find a way to make up lost ground.
Ross Chastain +7
The 2022 championship runner-up currently lies in the heart of the danger zone for 2024’s Playoffs. Ross Chastain only holds seven points above the cut line, a position he’s not seen in three years. Finishing outside of the top-10 in four straight weeks, Chastain has lost close to 90 points since June.
It may take a win for Chastain to secure his postseason fate at this point, with the great unknown of Daytona on the horizon. The Trackhouse Racing driver did spin going for the lead in the Daytona 500 though. The superspeedway may be his best chance at finding victory lane again.
Bubba Wallace -7
On the flip side of the Playoff cut line is a driver who’s been trending upward–Bubba Wallace. The last four weeks have seen three top-10s for the 23XI Racing team, eating into their points deficit. Much like Buescher, Wallace is eager to get to the next few races and eyes a checkered flag. The No. 23 Toyota has seen top-fives at Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington all since 2022. Any of these tracks or Richmond could see Wallace continue his recent hot streak and contend for another checkered flag.
Once racing picks back up at Richmond, it will be a nonstop battle of execution, luck, and speed to set the final four Playoff spots. A new winner from outside the top 16 would turn this list on its head, and guarantee even fewer driver’s fates. The cut line is currently a seven point gap, and it won’t be solidified until the checkers wave at Darlington in September.
Written by Peter Stratta
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