NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will Throw a Winning Party in Nashville?
NASCAR’s second half and the push to the Playoffs both begin Sunday. Nashville Superspeedway plays host to the fourth running of the Ally 400, with one manufacturer trying to remain perfect in Tennessee. Who are some favorites at the 1.33-mile concrete oval? Here are ones to watch out for in Sunday’s Music City throwdown.
Kyle Larson
Nashville Superspeedway’s inaugural Cup Series winner, Kyle Larson claims that he’s only average at this track. The 2021 winner makes this claim in spite of being one of only two drivers batting 1000 for Nashville top-fives. Larson has yet to back up his lights-out dominant 2021 run with another win. The two years since however have seen the No. 5 finish fourth and fifth.
“Nashville has been a good track for us,” Larson said. “We got the win in the inaugural event and have backed it up with a couple more top fives. We’re heading into the weekend with the hope the HendrickCars.com Chevrolet will be up front in contention for another victory there.”
Larson clearly had Nashville’s number in the Gen 6 car, but says this track is still a mystery with the Next Gen. Gunning for a fourth checkered flag of the year, the 5 will try and make it a perfect Hendrick Motorsports hat trick in victory lane.
Denny Hamlin
While the Next Gen era at Nashville has been a struggle for Larson, the opposite is true for Denny Hamlin. The last two years have seen the No. 11 Toyota lead 80+ laps, with finishes of sixth and third. Recent weeks have not been kind to Hamlin however. Dating back to early June, the 11 has three races outside of the top-20. This follows a five-race top-five run from April to June. Hamlin enters Nashville with his head held high for a season-correcting day and another prime winning opportunity.
“I’m optimistic about Nashville,” Hamlin said. “I feel like we have had one of, if not, the best cars there for the last few years with the Next Gen. It’s a track I have a lot of confidence we can run up front and get a good finish. We’re running really well, just different things the past few weeks have screwed us up. We need a mistake-free day and I feel like we are more than capable of doing that in Nashville.”
Joe Gibbs Racing may be the best shot at ending the Chevrolet command on Nashville winners. Hamlin had a race-winning capable car in each of the last two trips to Music City. He also won on its sister track in Dover. Can Hamlin be crowned the concrete king of 2024? Hamlin enters Nashville with some of the shortest odds.
Ross Chastain
The defending Ally 400 winner, Ross Chastain comes back to Nashville in a very similar position. The Trackhouse Racing No. 1 has yet to visit victory lane this season, and has lacked consistent pace. Chastain said that Nashville 12 months ago was just about a flawless race. He hopes the 1 crew can run it back again.
“Last year at Nashville was a career highlight for me for sure,” Chastain said. “It was one of those weekends that you dream about. We went out and performed really well. Now, there was times I was questioning if I was coming out the other side of a corner, and there was times that I deliberately lifted to get out of a situation that I didn’t think it was worth it. I’m really proud of that and I’ve been trying to put something together like that in a lot of weeks since.”
Arguments can be made that last year’s Nashville race was Chastain’s best all around race in Cup, and that this is his best track. Chastain’s worst Nashville showing was fifth in 2022, and last year saw him lead 99 laps from the pole. All of Trackhouse Racing celebrated this huge milestone victory in their adoptive hometown. Justin Marks called Nashville his third-biggest race of the year behind Daytona and Phoenix. Chastain’s top-10 numbers through 2024’s first half nearly mirror his from 2023 leading into Nashville. The stars may be aligning for another Music City melon smash.
Martin Truex Jr
Another Toyota who’s been close enough to taste Tennessee victory lane is Martin Truex Jr. Similar to Hamlin, both of Nashville’s Next Gen races have seen the No. 19 be in contention. 2023 saw Truex battle for the win against Chastain, coming up just short in second. Truex looked back fondly on the one that got away and hopes to be more dialed in this year.
“It was a good race,” Truex said. “We had a really strong car at times, and at times I just remember being really free and losing the lead and getting the car better at the end and tracking down Ross (Chastain), and I just couldn’t find a way around him. So that was a little bit of a frustrating race because I felt like we had the car to beat – we just didn’t put it all together at the right time. I’m looking forward to going back. It is a fun track. It has been really good the last few years and hoping we can make it even better and get our Bass Pro Shops Camry to victory lane there.”
Truex is still highest in points of those without a win, currently ranked fourth in the regular season championship. Pace and performance have not been issues in the 19 camp. Luck has merely not been in their favor through 18 races. Truex’s swan song season will likely have at least one trip to victory lane. Nashville is a great chance to see Truex on top again.
Chase Elliott
The Ally 400’s second winner from 2022, Chase Elliott has also been surprisingly consistent here. Aside from a 2021 DQ, the No. 9 has two top-fives in three Nashville races. Tied for the current points lead with teammate Kyle Larson, Elliott hopes to maintain his incredible 2024 run.
“I look forward to going to Nashville Superspeedway,” Elliott said. “It’s obviously a really cool town and market to be in, and the track’s been really racy the last couple of years. There are a lot of different lines to choose from and, overall, it’s been super solid.”
The Napa Chevrolet has yet to finish any race this year worse than 19th. Despite the lone win so far, this team shows great weekly pace and perseverance. This streak by Elliott is one of the most underrated feats this season. Barring a catastrophe, engine No. 9 should steam through Nashville and possibly leave with the points lead.
Christopher Bell
Much like Larson, Christopher Bell has one of the best records at Nashville Superspeedway, but still lacks a certain feel. The No. 20 is 3-3 in Nashville top-10s, with a best showing of seventh last year. Last week’s winner says his team is taking a new approach into this year’s Ally 400. The 20 crew hopes for another home run with this swing for the fences.
“It’s good to head into Nashville having three top-10 finishes but it’s been a place where I haven’t been super comfortable,” Bell said. “I was probably most comfortable in the old car there. Since we’ve gone back with the Next Gen car, we just haven’t been great. I’ve been the back half of the top-10 and lacking a little speed compared to the winners. I know we are trying something new to try and improve on that. I’m going there with a different mindset too, and a different mentality than I have the last couple of years. It’s a fun place and if you are good then you can make passes at that racetrack and that’s what we love.”
Ninth, eighth, and seventh are Bell’s three Nashville results, so he is slowly inching his way to the front. Bell enters Nashville on a heater from recent weeks. He is now tied with a series-best three wins on 2024 and is a point off the Playoff standings lead. Toyotas have a chance to derail Chevrolet’s train in Nashville, and possibly take the provisional top postseason seed. Many see Bell as a possible title favorite following Loudon, but how he fares in Nashville is still in question.
Will Sunday be a breakout solo or an encore performance in Music City? Nashville’s coveted guitar trophy could represent a rift in the Playoff picture. Chevrolet teams set sights on another victory outing, but have targets on their backs. The Ally 400 goes green Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
