NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will Reign Supreme in the Valley of the Sun at Phoenix Raceway?
What may be the most pivotal race of the 2024 regular season is next from Phoenix Raceway. The sight of November’s championship race, all drivers are eyeing a strong run this weekend for peak confidence. Who are some standouts for the desert mile that will decide a title in eight months? Here are a few drivers to watch out for in Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500.
Kyle Larson
Riding high off a max points weekend at Las Vegas, Kyle Larson guns for a back-to-back victory lane appearance. Driver 5 won his championship at the Arizona track three years ago. Larson has inched back toward the front here ever since. Debuting a new rules package this weekend, Larson knows many challenges are ahead. The West Coast kid believes his team can confront any hurdles though.
“There are some things we have talked about (as a team) to make us better this weekend,” Larson said. “We weren’t as fast as we needed to be last November to win the title. We’ll work on getting more speed out of the car so we can hopefully battle for the win on Sunday.”
Is it too early to call Larson a championship favorite? His 2021 title run kicked off with Las Vegas domination, like what we saw a week ago. Momentum, swagger, and optimism are all sky high in the 5 camp. Much like Sin City, Larson heads to the flat mile as the odds on favorite. Should the 5 find victory lane again, it would be Larson’s 25th Cup Series win.
Ryan Blaney
Nobody’s been more consistent at Phoenix Raceway in the 2020s than Ryan Blaney, even without a win. The No. 12 Ford has a run of seven straight Phoenix top-10s, including second place in the last three races. Last fall in Phoenix was Blaney’s crowning NASCAR achievement, taking home the 2023 Cup title. Heading back to one of his best tracks, Blaney yearns to change the win total on his stat line.
“We’re gonna try to get a one on the finishing column, instead of a two,” Blaney said. “It’s hard to complain about twos because we’ve had really good runs there. Hopefully we can just bring the same speed. I thought those three races that we’ve run second at that we could have won if a couple things go our way. That’s really all I can ask for is to just have the speed to try to win the race. Hopefully we can bring that and see what this car has on the short track package. I think that’s the big thing as well. Trying to figure out this new package and how it runs in traffic. Hopefully, we’re competitive.”
Recent history especially in the Next Gen era have Ryan Blaney seemingly riding into Phoenix as a favorite. Being winless in his 16 career desert starts though does put some hesitation on the 12 for oddsmakers. Blaney should be a top-five threat with a clean day. He will likely have to challenge Hendrick cars for the win though.
William Byron
The reigning spring Phoenix winner, William Byron hopes to have a better showing than Las Vegas. The No. 24 Chevrolet showed top-five speed early last week. A trash bag getting caught on his nose sent him back in the pack however. Byron only recovered to finish 10th, a far cry from his potential race-winning pace. The No. 24 led 64 laps in this race last year, and paced 95 circuits in November’s season finale. Byron knows how key performing at Phoenix will be for Playoff morale. Team 24 has this race circled as a great audition.
“Phoenix is a track that I feel like we have really improved at,” Byron said. “It was a track that we struggled at until the Next Gen car was introduced. Since then, we have really tried to work hard on our short-track package and improve it. I know this weekend will be a new aero package that was tested in the offseason. So practice will be crucial on Friday. Our teammate (Kyle Larson) was a part of that test. We’ll use those notes as a good starting point for when we unload”
While his time out front was cut short in Las Vegas, Byron did show race-winning speed. The 24 was perhaps equal to if not better than Larson. Adversity struck though, having Byron fight through the pack all day to finish 10th. Coming to another track he conquered a year ago, Byron may be all in for another trophy.
Joey Logano
Three-time Phoenix winner Joey Logano enters Arizona with an impressive streak. The No. 22 Ford has started on the front row in all three races this season. This has only yielded one top-10 however. Should Logano keep this qualifying run alive, it would put team 22 a step closer to victory lane.
Logano’s most recent Phoenix triumph was his dominant 2022 finale run that ended with a second Bill France Cup. Team 22 is trying to return to Phoenix in the fall as a contender again. Logano hopes to leave Sunday standing tall as a winner.
Denny Hamlin
Looking to keep momentum up with another strong run, Denny Hamlin is desert dreaming coming into Sunday. The two-time Phoenix winner hopes for much less drama than this race a year ago. Following an on-track altercation with Ross Chastain, Hamlin left Phoenix with a hefty points and monetary penalty. The fines stemmed from comments on his podcast. What could have been a top-five day for the 11 quickly devolved into a poor result in 2023. A year removed from this incident, Hamlin grasps the importance of the weekend ahead.
“I think we’re going to know a lot more about who the top guys are after Phoenix,” Hamlin said. “This is a big week for all the race teams that think they have championship aspirations. If you want to try something, it’s going to be this week. Because you’re not going to get too far out of the box once you get to championship weekend in November.”
23rd here a year ago was only Hamlin’s second time outside of the top-10 in the last seven Phoenix races. If team 11 truly is ‘A11 In’ this season, winning Phoenix would be a championship-caliber achievement.
Kyle Busch
Another three-time Phoenix victor, Kyle Busch has the chance to become Phoenix Raceway’s active wins leader this weekend. Driver 8 has been top-10 in six of the nine desert races since his last triumph. This includes an eighth-place run a year ago.
“Phoenix has always been a tricky track to hit the proper setup and making sure that you are fast,” Busch said. “Kevin Harvick had a really good time of being able to hit that ever since the repave at this track. I feel as though I might have been better at the old surface, but have still seen success in Trucks, Xfinity and Cup winning races.”
“Anytime you’re able to get a little bit more practice should allow you time to dissect the car and make the necessary changes that you think you need as a driver to be able to have a good racecar. I felt like we had a pretty decent racecar there last fall when we had the added practice. If it weren’t for getting set behind on pit road, we would have had a pretty good race.”
Added practice time this weekend should allow Busch to more finely dial in his Chevrolet. Execution will lead team 8 to feast or famine however. They have seen a pit road issue in all three races so far this season. If Busch can have an uneventful race with no self-inflicted errors, the 8 may just return to victory lane.
There will be no closer preview for November’s championship finale than Sunday’s show at Phoenix Raceway. The Shriners Children’s 500 may very well begin a driver’s pathway to the Cup. The winner of this race has been a Championship 4 contender in five of the last six years. Arizona’s green flag will fly Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
