NASCAR
Who are Favorites for the 2024 Harley J. Earl Trophy in the Daytona 500?
In mere hours, history books will have a new page written at the conclusion of the 66th annual Daytona 500. The Great American Race is the ultimate prize in American motorsports, with 40 drivers all eyeing the beloved Harley J. Earl Trophy.
Just about anyone can win this race thanks to the great equalizer of superspeedway racing. The last three years have seen a first-time Cup Series winner claim the Daytona 500. Heading into 2024’s edition, here are some of the sport’s best who are favored for a trip to victory lane.
Ryan Blaney
Defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney has the chance to achieve something not seen in over 20 years. He can become the first reigning Cup champion since Dale Jarrett to win the very next Daytona 500.
“I feel like I’ve been close to this thing a couple of times,” Blaney said. “I had a good shot to win it a couple years ago and it just didn’t work out. When people ask me that, I mean, that’s the dream deal. You win the championship and then turn right around and win the 500. The last person to do it was Dale Jarrett in 2000 I think someone said, so it’s about time someone maybe does it again. We’ll see. You just try to learn from experiences from previous races here and figure out, ‘Hey, what did we do well to put us in a spot to win? And what decisions did I make that kind of kept us out of victory lane?’ And you just hope to find yourself in those spots again and try to make the right decision, so we’ll see. You just try to be rolling at the end of it and hopefully you’re there, but I’m excited for it. It should be great and try to add the 500 onto RP’s Rolex 24 that he got not too long ago here.”
“I remember every little detail of how you run second. Drivers obviously remember it. You remember the ones you lose. The ones that sting I feel like you remember those even more. You remember every little detail about them, so, yeah, we’ve run second here twice. I feel like I’ve had a great shot to win it maybe two or three other times and it just hasn’t played out. I try to take those as things like running second or close to winning this thing and not doing it, but I always try to take things from it as, ‘OK, we did a really good job of putting ourselves in a spot to win this race. What can I do and what can we do as a team to try to change the outcome of that?’ Great, you get there, but you’re just gathering data and previous experiences and I think that’s nice.”
“Someone told me that this is my 10th Daytona 500, which is crazy. I’ve been lucky to have some good runs in it, so you just try to get all of that stuff that you’ve learned and try to change it. You do all that stuff and you could get wadded up on lap two and it goes for nothing, but you just try to take all of the info and experience that you can and, hopefully, you’re in a spot to where you can use it. That’s all you ask for is a chance to use this stuff that you’ve learned and apply it, and that’s the biggest thing. Hopefully, we can try to get it done, so we’ll see.”
Blaney and Jarrett are already linked in a special way, as the two most recent Cup champions from North Carolina. Driver 12 has been within sight of Daytona 500 glory before, but has has to settle for second twice. Entering this season with perhaps his highest confidence ever, Blaney could be a major threat on the high banks.
Kyle Busch
Many eyes will rightfully be on Kyle Busch this Daytona Speedweek. The Richard Childress Racing driver enters his 20th Daytona 500 attempt, going for his first taste at victory lane. If this setup sounds familiar, it’s because this mirrors Dale Earnhardt heading into 1998, when he finally won the Daytona 500. Last year was perhaps the closest Rowdy has been to reigning supreme in February. Busch has a spot already picked out on his mantle for the Harley J. Earl Trophy.
“It’s certainly the highest honor out there to be able to win a race in our sport,” Busch said. “I have not done that yet, although I won the Daytona 500 last year under the yellow flag, not under the checkered flag. Those damn technicalities keep coming up and getting me.”
Busch reflected over a few past Daytona 500s he thought were within grasp.
“All in all, coming out of turn four in 2007, maybe I had a little bit of sentimental feeling for Mark, trying to push Mark to the win. I didn’t pull out on the backstretch to take the lead around the outside, then I spun out of four. That was the melee of Bowyer upside down and on fire in that race.”
“2016, I should have pulled out of line down the backstretch when Denny got the lead. He won. I finished third on that one. There’s a lot that have stung that you still think about, Dammit, man, should have, could have, would have.”
“I think last year probably hurt the worst. We led mile marker 500, then got crashed out and finished 19th. There’s other years I got beat towards the end, finished second or third. Yeah, you’re pissed, but you also know that’s a good start to the year. Getting out of Daytona with some good points, a good go of it, I guess lends it to be a little easier on the feelings than coming out of here with 19th.”
“It’s missing, right? There’s no checkmark there. Does it do anything to solidify your career, validate the things that you’ve done or accomplished here? I don’t think so. I mean, I look at Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace and Tony Stewart as some greats that have blue jackets that made it to the Hall of Fame that haven’t won this race. It would certainly be nice to not have to worry about that going in and have this trophy at home.”
Oddsmakers have Busch listed with some of the shortest odds for Sunday. Should he be able to survive the inevitable carnage and chaos, the 8 may be willing to do whatever it takes to cross off this milestone.
Denny Hamlin
Always a threat on any trip to the high banks is three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin. Across two years of Next Gen drafting races however, the No. 11 Toyota has been locked out of the top-10 at Daytona. Hamlin can put his name in a very elite club should he find victory lane though. Four Daytona 500 triumphs would tie Hamlin for second-most all-time.
“I think with each win, it puts you in a different category, right,” Hamlin said. “And certainly, with some of the numbers that Richard (Petty) or Cale (Yarborough) put up, it’s hard to duplicate even in today’s type racing where there’s more cars on the lead lap and more cars in the front pack. I think accomplishments like that certainly puts you in an upper echelon of drivers that were legends in this sport, so it would certainly mean a lot.”
“There are many great drivers, certainly better than I am, that have never won this race and they deem it as a hole in their career. I think it’s a different type of racing now than what it used to be. It was a little more predictable back then because the cars were on edge and the great drafters found their way and position. It’s just a little different with the Next Gen era for sure. But yeah, having multiple wins in this certainly takes the pressure off. There’s just more to gain, not much to lose if you don’t accomplish it this year.”
Hamlin’s superspeedway prowess and history speaks for itself, but all Toyota drivers are restarting from square one this year. A new nose design for Toyota Camrys remains a large unknown on how it will handle in the pack. Few have better adaptability than Hamlin though at strategically positioning themselves and being up front late. Following his win in the Clash, Hamlin wants to remain undefeated in 2024.
Brad Keselowski
Alongside Busch, Brad Keselowski may just be a sentimental favorite to take his first Daytona 500 win. The seven-time superspeedway winner has yet to check this box off his wish list, but has been painfully close in recent years. 2021 saw Keselowski wreck while going for the win a mile from the finish. 2022 and 2023 both saw the 6 lead the most laps, only to come up short. Last year, both RFK cars were in position to capitalize until overtime struck. Can this year finally be BK’s year for Daytona 500 glory?
“It’s flattering (being a favorite) but the results are what the results are,” Keselowski said. “They’re not what people want sometimes but I just feel like I can only answer for myself and I just know that we’ve been in position. We’ve led the most laps, we’ve won the stages. We’ve won a lot of races on the other plate tracks and the 500 is the only missing thing for me. To win it would check a big bucket off the list. I feel like we are doing all the right things for that to be real. In the end, you get to the last 30 or 40 laps and stuff just happens. All you can do is be in position and hope that the bad stuff doesn’t happen to you and you have a shot.”
Had overtime not defined last year’s finish, a duel was brewing between both Keselowski and Busch for the win. Keselowski has found seemingly every way to lose this race. One of these years he is bound to find a way to park his Mustang in victory lane.
Bubba Wallace
Just like his beat friend Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace has a pair of Daytona 500 runner-ups. This puts both of them in rarified air for drivers without a Daytona 500 win, trailing only Terry Labonte’s three second-place finishes. Wallace is coming off his best season yet, and may have his best shot to date at delivering a Daytona 500 win.
“Every (Daytona) race is totally different,” Wallace said. “If I finished second in five of my six attempts, then yeah we have something to figure out. I’m second, 40th, second, 30th, second, 50th. A little inconsistent, but we always find our way to the front and showing good pace on speedways. We’re still a few moves away from getting that first Daytona 500 win. I feel the most prepared I’ve ever been, but you never know. You could be out leading and get turned. That’s what happened to me last year. You never know what other person in the field is going to make the wrong move, so you have to be aware.”
“You have to finish the races. I’ve given Tyler (Reddick) some grief, whatever you want to say, but he hasn’t really finished a speedway race. We go through all of this data, and you say ‘Hey, when we get to five laps to go, this needs to happen’ with a lot of what-ifs. Then I say, ‘What if you don’t make it to the end? So, let’s focus on finishing.’ Then, with all of the data we have, you can learn from it. Before, I had a lot of speed, but I wouldn’t finish these speedway races. We’d talk about things and I’d be like ‘I’ve never had that happen.’ Now, I’ve been able to experience it enough that I’m able to talk about something. But finishing is the most important thing, whether that’s 20th or that’s winning. Have to finish.”
Toyotas were incredibly fast in Daytona 500 practice, giving Wallace high confidence. Should the 23XI Racing team be able to survive and make the right choices Sunday, he could end the day with the biggest victory of his life.
Joey Logano
A Daytona 500 polesitter has not taken home the Harley J. Earl Trophy since Dale Jarrett in 2000. Joey Logano will give it his all to end this streak after 24 years. The 2015 winner of The Great American Race was also a close runner-up last year. Despite already having a win in NASCAR’s biggest race, Logano knows that will not change anything in chasing a second Daytona 500 victory.
“I don’t know if (being a past 500 winner) changes it because the goal is the same no matter what,” Logano said. “Your goal is to win it, whether you’ve won it five times or no times. It seems similar. We’ve been so close so many times since then that we’ve been leading on the last lap at some point. Last year, the caution just fell at the wrong time. If they hit that stinking button a little sooner last year, we would have won but it is what it is.”
Logano will try and join the exclusive list of multi-time Daytona 500 winners. The two-time Cup Series champion hopes to add another major trophy and ring to his collection this weekend. Team Penske has also earned several major victories over the last calendar year, and Logano aims to add another 500 to this list.
A driver’s entire career will be defined by the Sunday drive to victory lane in The Great American Race. The 66th annual Daytona 500 goes green at 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. While upset winners have been seen in the last three years at Daytona, one of these six has an above-average chance at ending this streak.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to James Gilbert/Getty Images
