NASCAR
Stratta’s 16: My Way-Too-Early 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Predictions
With the Busch Light Clash now in the rearview mirror, the focus of the NASCAR world shifts to Daytona. While one driver will be immortalized in history as a Daytona 500 Champion, it also marks the beginning of the 2024 regular season. Its winner will be the first of 16 drivers to secure a Playoff berth, asserting themselves as a championship contender this fall. Here are my picks for the drivers who will make up the 16-man title fight for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series.
Hendrick Motorsports
The closest thing to a NASCAR superteam, Hendrick Motorsports was a tale of two halves in 2023. Kyle Larson and William Byron put up a combined 10 wins, and were second and third in points. The seasons for Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman meanwhile were derailed by injuries and missing races. Neither the 9 or 48 made the Playoffs, ending their years on the back side of the top-20 in points.
Larson and Byron returning to the Playoffs and title contention again should be of little doubt. Both drivers and teams are arguably the best in the Cup Series, and have shown the ability to win just about anywhere. The bigger question marks for HMS in 2024 surround the 9 and 48 teams, who I do see both finding victory lane again in the regular season.
Elliott left 2023 on a much more optimistic note than the year prior. Results may not have quite been there for the Most Popular Driver, but an offseason’s worth of internal regrouping and studying can only put them closer to the front of the pack. Team 9 must come out of the gate strong though if they are to be a weekly threat.
Nobody started off 2023 stronger than Alex Bowman, who inherited the points lead in week four. Following a few weeks as the top dog, Bowman did regress slightly and then suffered his literal and figurative back-breaking injury. The 48 was never the same results-wise once Bowman returned, only earning four top-10s after Charlotte in May.
2024 allows Bowman and his sophomore crew chief Blake Harris another shot to come out swinging. Perhaps they will find more early season success together. The three seasons prior to 2023 all saw Bowman win one of the opening 10 races, expect a similar result to possibly happen in the new year.
Joe Gibbs Racing
The other four-car team that will see perfect Playoff representation is Joe Gibbs Racing. Their well-defined trio of Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, and Christopher Bell have all more than proven themselves capable of grabbing at least one checkered flag in the opening 26 weeks. This trifecta should all be multi-time winners and threats for the regular season championship.
Sophomore Ty Gibbs however will join his teammates in the 16-man cut this year, likely thanks to his first career win. As displayed in the Busch Light Clash, the young Gibbs’ maturity behind the wheel is strong enough to compete with the best in the Cup Series. Gibbs’ No. 54 Toyota should have ample chances to win in 2024. It would not be surprising to see Gibbs earn a few victories this season, similar to Chase Elliott in 2018. If the Clash previewed anything, the 54 will be a fast car throughout this season.
Team Penske
The organization responsible for the last two champions, Team Penske will have a great shot at an unprecedented threepeat. Both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are now elite-level competitors capable of wins on a near-weekly basis.
The Playoff schedule that saw Blaney come to life a season ago remains unchanged. As a result, the 12 could be in store for another trip to Phoenix. Logano is also undefeated in making the Championship 4 in even-numbered years; will 2024 be another fruitful year for the 22? Only one regular season win a year ago was an uncharacteristic dip for Logano. The 22 needs to find multiple wins to be a true contender again.
RFK Racing
Widely seen as the most improved team in 2023 was RFK Racing. Chris Buescher won three times over five weeks in the late summer, and Brad Keselowski also returned to his vintage form. The only blemish on RFK’s 2023 was the 6 car going winless. This was not from a lack of trying however by Keselowski and his crew.
Both the 6 and 17 should be consistent enough to maintain top 16 points positions. Much like a year ago, expect both cars to run near each other weekly and have plenty of winning chances. RFK’s first prime chance at victory lane will be the Daytona 500; in August Keselowski pushed Buescher to the Coke Zero Sugar 400 win. Should these two be able to team up again, either driver could be facing their maiden Daytona 500 triumph.
Keselowski’s winless drought now nears 100 races, don’t think that dry spell will last much longer. Coming off his career-best season as well, the sky is the limit for Buescher in the Playoffs.
23XI Racing
Seeing marked improvements in each year of their existence, 23XI Racing is on the cusp of title contention. Tyler Reddick’s first year with Toyota saw a pair of wins and the Round of 8, while Bubba Wallace also made his first Playoffs.
Similar to RFK, 23XI’s only speed bump in 2023 was having one car go winless. Reddick is a proven commodity at this point and may be a darkhorse Championship 4 threat. For Wallace however, he should aim for a few winning chances, and his first multi-win season. The new Toyota Camry nose is still a big question mark for the manufacturer though. Despite this unknown, 23XI’s upward trajectory shows little sign of changing course.
Richard Childress Racing
Now entering his second season in the No. 8 Chevrolet, Kyle Busch is looking up with Richard Childress Racing. They were among the best teams in the first half of 2023, earning three wins in 15 weeks. The latter half of the year was marred by inconsistency however, and a noticeable regression in all areas.
Busch should be able to snag at least one early season win, if not a few. Once the Playoffs begin though, this team must be able to retain their consistency and simply find better luck. The 8 with Busch can be an outside title threat, but they must be able to survive the opening Playoff rounds.
Trackhouse Racing
The last man I have making up the 2023 Playoffs is Trackhouse Racing’s franchise driver, Ross Chastain. The No. 1 Chevrolet has earned a pair of victories across both of the last two years, winning on four very distinct track types. When Chastain has a solid car underneath him, he will be as consistent as anyone and challenge for the Cup.
A mid-season fall off in 2023 does have some concern within Trackhouse. Chastain’s ability to pop off a win however should have the 1 all but penciled in as a Playoff lock.
A lot of question marks surround a few teams in particular that have seen major offseason changes. Between Stewart-Haas, Legacy, and Spire, there is great hunger to upend the Playoffs with a breakthrough win. This list of 16 is likely not going to be a perfect prediction. The first two weeks at Daytona and Atlanta offer prime opportunities at underdog victors. When the Cup Series Playoffs do arrive in August, it will be fun to look back on this list and see just how close it is to reality.
Written by Peter Stratta
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