NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Hammer Away a Homestead Triumph?
A favorite track for drivers and fans alike is up next this weekend, with the annual trek down to Homestead-Miami Speedway. Race two in the Round of 8 has one overwhelming favorite, but plenty more capable of victory. The Playoffs have seven teams gunning for three final round spots. Here’s a look at some drivers to watch out for on the southernmost racetrack.
Kyle Larson
Little has to be said of how well Kyle Larson excels at Homestead-Miami. While last year was his first Cup win here, driver 5 has been a contender in almost every trip he’s made down south. 199 laps led a season ago only punctuated Larson’s near-perfect day of running the wall. Coming off a Las Vegas victory and already locked into the Championship 4, a care-free Larson is only more dangerous for the competition.
“It’s nice to be locked in (to the Championship 4),” Larson said. “The points are really close. It’s nice to not have to worry about points and go there and race our own race. I aim to race up front and try to make good decisions on the racetrack. Knowing that I’m locked in, I’m not going into these next two races thinking that they are throwaways. I want to go there (Homestead-Miami and Martinsville), have some good runs, potentially have a couple more wins and roll into Phoenix with a lot of confidence and momentum to go after a second championship.”
If anything the Next Gen car only allows Larson to be even more unmatched at Homestead. The composite bodies allow Larson to occasionally graze the wall and keep going. This durability was not present before last year in the Gen 6 car.
Larson’s championship season two years ago also saw him go back-to-back to open the Round of 8. Entering Sunday as the heavy odds-on favorite, the 5 may leave the 305 with a fifth win of 2023.
Denny Hamlin
While Larson may be the favorite, Denny Hamlin’s Homestead career is nothing to overlook. Driver 11 has three wins and 12 top-10s in 18 starts at the Florida track. Hamlin’s victory trifecta here ties Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle for most all-time. If Larson stumbles at all on Sunday, expect Hamlin to be there to pounce for a Championship 4 berth.
“We’re looking forward to this weekend,” Hamlin said. “Obviously, we would have liked to have finished last week a little better to be in a better spot in the points, but we feel good about Homestead. It’s a track we’ve had some success at and feel like we can run up front and score points. That’s the name of the game right now is just qualify up front, score points in the Stages and finish as good as we can. It’d be awesome to win the race and lock ourselves in, but if we can’t do that, we need to maximize our day.”
Hamlin broke a tie for most all-time wins at Pocono earlier this season. One of the most consistent drivers and teams all Playoffs long eyes another solo record-making day in Florida. The 11 cannot be counted out when it comes to Homestead.
Tyler Reddick
Much like with Larson, Homestead is a tailor-made racetrack for Tyler Reddick’s strengths. The former dirt racer wheeled his way to back-to-back Xfinity Series titles on this track. In both of those championship-deciding races, Reddick hardly had a right side after scraping the wall so much. Like the Xfinity bodies, the Next Gen car allows Reddick to run the boards and still make time.
“Homestead is a track for me where I’ve had a lot of big moments,” Reddick said. “Last year in the Next Gen car, I think we were a second or third-place car to (Kyle) Larson, he was just in his own zip code. I certainly look to Homestead to be a place where we should be able to be really strong. Homestead is a place where I feel like we can score a lot of points, and we’re going to need to do just that.”
While Reddick does have the two Xfinity Homestead triumphs, he’s still 0-3 in a Cup car. His best result was runner-up in 2021, that could change in a matter of hours. Reddick is no stranger to stealing wins late in these Playoffs.
William Byron
2021 Homestead winner William Byron wants another trophy. After starting on pole and leading early a season ago, the No. 24 faded to finish 12th. A week after teammate Larson put Hendrick into the championship finale, Byron hopes for a lockout from both contending cars.
“I mean I’ve (run the wall at Homestead) before, but I don’t think in the Cup car,” Byron said. “It’s not maybe as comfortable for me, but I do feel like I’m capable of running well at Homestead. I’ve won a Cup race there and last year we qualified on the pole. It’s a place that is within our wheelhouse. It’s just a matter of how good we can be there. I think we can realistically have a chance to compete and fight for a win there. I don’t know yet, but I feel like we can be pretty solid at Homestead, for sure.”
With the 5 already guaranteed onto the next round, Byron could break through again at Homestead. Even with a series-leading six wins in 2023, it will likely take Byron a seventh checkered flag to make Phoenix. Few tracks give the 25-year-old more confidence than Homestead.
Martin Truex Jr
None of the elite eight drivers have a better Homestead average finish (9.7) than Martin Truex Jr. Finally with some positive Playoff momentum, ninth at Las Vegas was the 19’s first top-10 since Watkins Glen in August. Larson may have won the day a year ago at Homestead, but it was Truex battling him late. Heading to one of his favorite tracks, the regular season champion wants a fourth win of 2023 and a Championship 4 berth.
“That’s the kind of track I really like,” Truex said. “You can run all over and it’s really low-grip and it wears tires out. You really have to manage your car and your tires throughout runs. Be able to move around the track and find lines that work for you. It’s a big challenge and I enjoy tracks like that. I love South Florida and love going down there. A lot of great fans. It doesn’t feel like fall when you go down there, it feels like summer, so that’s an added bonus.”
“It’s a track I feel good about. Recent success is always important. Now (we’re back) racing with the Next Gen car we got to race there for the first time (last year). That went really well and we were in position to win that race late and we had issues getting spun on pit road that took us out of it. Definitely have a lot of confidence going there with our Bass Pro Shops Camry. I feel like we have a good notebook from last year to go off of. It’s a place where I think we can make something happen.”
In the five years since his Homestead win and 2017 championship, Truex has three top-fives including two runner-ups. The veteran may just out-duel his younger rivals for a sixth ticket to Championship weekend.
Ryan Blaney
On paper Ryan Blaney’s Homestead stats leave a little to be desired. Driver 12 only has one top-10 here in eight starts. Blaney was in position for a top-five day a year ago however, before an unforced error leaving pit road. Coming back to the site of such a promising run cut short, Blaney should be in position to repeat this run. After having a disqualification overturned, the 12 team may just stun us all again this week.
The season finale for nearly two decades, Homestead in 2023 will take an equal championship-caliber winning effort. The 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil1 will be at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. It may seem like Larson vs. the world, but many others could end Homestead at the top of the heap.
Written by Peter Stratta
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