NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will Leave Las Vegas with the Hottest Hand?
What many consider the second-most important race of the NASCAR Playoffs is almost here. Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway opens the Round of 8, meaning a winner will lock their way into the Championship 4. Of the elite eight left, who are some desert dreamers? Here’s a look at a few favorites who could be celebrating big after the South Point 400.
Kyle Larson
Since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Kyle Larson has been nearly unmatched at Las Vegas. A win, two runner-ups and four top-10s have been the 5’s results across the last five Vegas races. The only blemish on Larson’s recent record was this race a year ago. While battling with Bubba Wallace for a spot inside the top-five, Larson was wrecked in a retaliatory move that ended with driver 23 suspended. This was the only Las Vegas race in his Hendrick tenure where Larson did not lead. Expect the No. 5 to be up front early and often this time around.
“I’m looking forward to the next round,” Larson said. “It has some good tracks for us, including Las Vegas. We really hope to have a solid next few races that can advance us into the Championship 4 and then I feel like we could have a really good shot at Phoenix. Thank you to everyone at Hendrick Motorsports. It’s the best organization in NASCAR and I’m very grateful to be at such a great place.”
Look no further than March for Larson’s impressive Las Vegas résumé. After leapfrogging teammate William Byron late, the 5 only lost to the lightning-quick 24 pit crew. Larson enters this Vegas weekend as the favorite, oddsmakers have their eyes pinned on a potential retribution run.
Denny Hamlin
Aside from Larson, another Las Vegas heavyweight is Denny Hamlin. The 11 and 5 are almost pound-for-pound even in their Vegas stat lines. Hamlin has a win, four top-fives and 351 laps led in the last six desert showdowns. The Joe Gibbs Racing team is also the only one to consistently rival the Hendrick cars so far in these Playoffs, with four top-fives. If it isn’t an HMS Chevrolet winning on Sunday, then chips should be placed on 11.
“I’m looking forward to Vegas,” Hamlin said. “I don’t always practice well there and don’t always qualify well there, but I always race well. That’s my Kansas 2.0. I don’t know what it is about those tracks, but it just seems like it takes me a day to get up to speed. I think we’ll be good though. The mile-and-a-halves have been great for us this year, so I feel good about this weekend and these next three races.”
The Charlotte Roval has been one of very few bumps in the road to Phoenix so far for Hamlin. Spinning out early and suffering terminal damage does not tell the story of the 11 team’s efforts. The Chris Gabehart-led crew have been ones to beat almost everywhere, don’t think that will change this weekend.
William Byron
Race three of the year all the way back in March was a statement for William Byron at Las Vegas. That day the No. 24 was in a league of their own, leading 176 laps, taking all three Stages and grabbing the checkers. Since then, Byron has established himself as the arguable title favorite with a series-leading six wins. Reseeded to the points lead for this round, Byron has the smoothest path ahead to Phoenix. Team 24’s championship aspirations may just include a season sweep at Las Vegas.
“This round is going to be hard, that’s for sure,” Byron said. “The points difference from us to third is only a little bit and you have to assume that there are going to be winners from outside the top four. That means you need to stay in one of the top two points positions. Winning a race is vital, but obviously that’s not easy at the Cup level. Getting that win is the best way to ensure you’re moving on to the next round. Hopefully, we can do that but either way the goal remains the same.”
A lot has changed over the last seven months, but Byron was on rails and largely unchallenged in the desert. If a fraction of this performance returns Sunday, then the competition may be in for a very long afternoon under the Vegas sun.
Tyler Reddick
As under-the-radar as a Playoff contender can be in the Round of 8 is Tyler Reddick. The No. 45 dug in deep and got the points needed to advance onward past the Charlotte Roval, vaulting ahead after starting in the red. Now with a new life, Reddick is ready to battle at some of his favorite tracks.
“We’ve had our sights set on these tracks in the Round of 8 for awhile,” Reddick said. “I know it’s a process to get to the Round of 8, but when I look at the tracks we’re going to, I mean I feel really good about them. Mile-and-a-halves have been great for us at 23XI and Toyota, and we got two of them. We got Vegas, which believe it or not, I’m more excited about than even Homestead. Those two should be great for us and then we ran really good at Martinsville.”
23XI Racing has proven very capable of bringing a race-winning car to Las Vegas, looking back 12 months ago. Before his on-track incident with Larson, Bubba Wallace did win a Stage and was on track for another potential win. Teammate Tyler Reddick may just finish the job this time at the desert intermediate track.
Ryan Blaney
Still winless in 14 Las Vegas starts, the stars could align for Ryan Blaney. Penske cars are historically excellent on the desert track, with Joey Logano’s win a season ago leading to the 2022 title. Following Logano for much of that race was Blaney, until a late spin forced the No. 12 out of contention. Now with another shot in the Round of 8, Blaney knows just how helpful this opening weekend can be.
“It’s huge (winning the Playoff race in Las Vegas),” Blaney said. “I mean, just having that prep time for two weeks with nothing else on your mind. Joey (Logano) was able to do it with that group last year and you saw what happened, so it’s a huge advantage. I think (Kyle) Larson did it the year before. I think he won the first race of the Round of 8 and it just gives you so much more prep time for (the championship) race. It’s just all you’re thinking about, so that’s a big one. Obviously, everyone is gunning to do it and try to win that one and move on, but it was massive for our group last year. It would be the same big advantage for any group if a Playoff car was to win.”
“I think Vegas has been a good place for us in the past. I feel like it’s been one of our best tracks as an organization. It’s something that whatever we do in general as a group kind of works for that place and hopefully that applies this year.”
Even with the help from his Talladega win, Ryan Blaney is still last of the eight Playoff drivers in points. A monumental effort over the next three weeks is needed for the Penske 12 crew to make the Championship 4. The easiest path ahead would be to replicate Logano’s 2022 Las Vegas victory.
Martin Truex Jr.
After evading elimination twice so far, regular season champion Martin Truex Jr. now eyes a return to victory lane. Las Vegas has been very familiar territory for Truex before, with a pair of desert trophies. MTJ also boasts a series-leading six-straight Sin City top-10s. If any track favors Truex getting over a Playoff dry spell, it’s Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
“Vegas is a great track that’s wide and you can run all over,” Truex said. “We saw a lot of guys run high the last three races there with the bumps. I feel like the car has evolved and we’ve gotten better at being able to get through the bumps and move around. I expect it to be a great race out in Vegas; I love going out there and it’s a great racetrack. The last couple of races there, we were in contention right to the very end with our Bass Pro Shops Camry and were fighting for the lead and eventually the caution came out and the strategy didn’t work out.”
“Stage points and bonus points certainly helped us a ton. I didn’t create the system. We used it to our advantage. That won’t get us through the next one. The next one, you’ve got to be running up front. Two winners of the next three races are probably going to be Playoff guys that are still going. Need to turn it up and we need to figure it out quickly. That’s the beauty and that’s the thing that sucks about this deal, you know what I mean? I’m sure there are guys who are upset. They outran us enough to get in, but they didn’t have the bonus points. We have some really good tracks for us this round, so I’m hoping to go out to Vegas and have a good run this weekend. We’ll fight hard the next three races and see where we land with our Bass Pro Shops Camry. Vegas was good for us in the spring and I would expect us to run up front this weekend.”
The opening six Playoff races have been far from what anyone imagined for the 19. Truex only has a best finish of 17th, utilizing every bit of his points cushion to stay alive. A few of these poor results can be chalked up to bad luck or tracks that do not suit the 19 team however. Las Vegas is the exact opposite of that though. Truex should be seen as a winning pick at one of his best stops on the circuit.
The cards are in eight player’s hands now, with 267 laps separating one of them from a big pay day. The South Point 400 goes green Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. As the earliest chance to punch a Phoenix ticket, who can leave the desert on a hot hand?
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Chris Graythen/Getty Images
