NASCAR
Who Are the 2023 Xfinity Series Championship Favorites?
26 races have cut the NASCAR Xfinity Series down to 12 championship contenders. The 2023 Playoff field is a very wide-ranging talent pool of drivers and teams. Who are the best of the best who currently rise up as favorites for the 2023 title? Here’s a look at the top half of the Xfinity Series Playoff grid, and their chances at hoisting the big trophy at Phoenix Raceway in November.
John Hunter Nemechek – 2,049 points
By any measurable statistic, the fastest driver and team more weeks than not this year has been the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 and John Hunter Nemechek. A series-leading six wins and 19 top-10s show very little if any weakness out of this Toyota team. Even with this speed though, Nemechek knows that he must perform now to achieve Playoff greatness.
“We’re not focused on being the favorite to win the championship or not,” Nemechek said. “We’re focused on running every race how we do and going out and race every single racetrack every single week. Putting an emphasis on trying to win, but also coming out with good weeks to not let bad ones affect your Playoff run. I don’t think the standpoint of being a favorite or not really affects us or the mental side of things.”
“I think the way we’ve run this year and with the speed we’ve had, we want to make the final four and definitely feel we have a shot to do so. We just can’t beat ourselves to get there.”
Poised well to make a Championship 4 appearance, Nemechek hopes to leave his own stamp on NASCAR history over the next seven races. Nemechek’s father Joe won the 1992 Xfinity Series championship. Joe and John Hunter would be the first father-son duo ever to take this division’s title. The 26-year-old should be a strong threat for most if not every win the remainder of this season.
Austin Hill – 2,039 points
In lockstep with Nemechek for most of this season has been Austin Hill. The RCR No. 21 Chevrolet crew won the regular season title, also collecting four wins along the way. Hill beat Nemechek already for the Regular Season Championship, but gets re-seeded 10 points behind his rival. Even with the one box already checked, Hill is well aware that the championship will likely go through the No. 20.
“I think the 20 car [Nemechek] has to be the favorite,” Hill said. “They’ve just been really fast all season long, they have six wins on the year. The main reason why we were able to win the Regular Season Championship was that we were just very consistent all year where the 20, they had more roller-coaster finishes going, and we were more even-keel.”
“I don’t see us being a clear favorite, I think the 20 probably is. But we’re a good enough organization to make it to the Final Four and if you can make it to the Final Four, anything can happen.”
“I kind of laugh anytime someone says that (I’m a superspeedway specialist). Because if you look at my wins at the Truck level, I won on all different types of tracks. I won on the dirt track, I won at Watkins Glen, I won on superspeedways and mile-and-a-halves. So a lot of different racetracks.
“I’ve always felt like I could win on any given track we go to. But it gives me a little bit of a chip on the shoulder. I’ve always been the guy no one really talks a lot about, always been the dark horse, so it kind of just gives me a little chip on my shoulder and want to prove to everybody that I can win on all these sorts of racetracks. All you have to do is look at what we’ve done this season.”
This dark horse mentality should serve Hill well in the weeks to come. Perhaps the only weakness visible from the 21 team is their very hit-and-miss trips to victory lane. Hill won three of the year’s first five races, but not again until July. If Nemechek stumbles at all, the No. 21 will be right there ready to pounce for wins and possibly a championship.
Justin Allgaier – 2,026 points
Crafty veteran Justin Allgaier makes his record eighth Xfinity Series Playoff appearance in 2023. On the strength of two wins, the No. 7 leads JR Motorsports as the third seed. The JRM Chevrolets were noticeably off on speed to start this year, after some offseason rule changes left them scrambling. Battle-hardened wisdom should pay off for Allgaier though, as the only driver to remain perfect in making the Xfinity Series postseason.
“I think as a veteran and somebody that’s got experience, you sometimes come in a little more tentatively,” Allgaier said. “Maybe you don’t put yourself in positions you would even in the regular season to try to win races because you know that maybe sometimes being safe is a better route.”
“But winning races is also really ultra important. If you can win a race each round and lock your way into Phoenix, it’s a lot easier than it is to point your way in. I think sometimes with experience comes reservation. I’ve got plenty of gray hair here to prove that I’ve done my fair share of crashing. I think you just race differently than you would if you’re kinda young and tenacious and have a little bit of a different outlook on what it takes to be successful.”
“I also don’t know how many more opportunities I’ll have. You never know when that next opportunity is going to come to have a shot to go for a championship. So you try to almost hold it in close and not let it go. Sometimes, I think maybe throwing caution to the wind would be a better approach.”
Speed has rarely been an issue for the No. 7 car this season, but execution has been. Their last eight races only have three top-10s, including August’s Daytona win. Should Allgaier and his team remain mistake-free, they are heavily favored for another Championship 4. As we have seen in the Cup Series though, mistakes from title favorites can have possibly Playoff-ending consequences.
Cole Custer – 2,017 points
Making his Xfinity Series return, Cole Custer ended the regular season fourth in points, exactly where he’s re-seeded. The No. 00 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford saw victory lane twice on two road courses, Portland and Chicago. Custer was the championship runner-up in both 2018 and 2019. Another Championship 4 shot is at his top of mind heading into these Playoffs.
“I think at the end of the day, we’ve been a top-five car all year,” Custer said. “We’ve shown the speed. It’s just a matter of going into these Playoffs and being consistent, getting all the details right. I think we’ll be right where we need to be. You never know what these Playoffs are going to give you, you just have to take what you get and try and make the most of it whenever craziness happens.”
“I’ve been proud of our team and what we’ve done. We took a team that was brand new this year and I think we’ve built it into something that can compete for a championship. We’ve competed for wins this year, which is all you can do and hope it plays out right. Sometimes things don’t play out perfectly throughout the year, but we’ve shown speed that we can compete for wins. In these Playoffs, it’s just a matter of getting the details right. I think we’ll be able to mix it up.”
Much like Allgaier, performance and experience are two factors Custer is far from lacking. Already starting as the fourth seed, Custer may be able to simply maintain his status quo position all the way to Phoenix. Wins have been hard for the 00 to come by though. More chances at victory lane should be their primary goal over the next few weeks.
Sam Mayer – 2,015 points
After his first two career Xfinity Series wins this summer, Sam Mayer is the fifth Playoff seed. The JR Motorsports No. 1 went to victory lane at Road America and Watkins Glen, flexing his road course prowess. Mayer also announced this week that he will return to the JRM No. 1 for 2024. The Wisconsin native reflected on what he’s learned this season and his excitement to be coming back to this powerhouse organization.
“The really good part is that I’ve learned so much in the Xfinity career that I’ve had, good, bad and ugly,” Mayer said. “I’ve been able to use all of that for this year and now again for next year with JRM. It’s really cool to be able to come back with them and have another shot at it. 33 more bullets in the gun to go get wins and a championship for them. Obviously this year isn’t done yet, we still have a lot of room for improvement and a lot of success on the plate. We’re always looking for more.”
The opening round cutoff race on the Charlotte Roval is surely circled on Mayer’s calendar. Inexperience is one area where this driver and team is lacking though. Should the Round of 12 go flawless for the 1 team, Mayer’s speed and confidence may carry this team far.
Chandler Smith – 2,009 points
Kaulig Racing’s rookie, Chandler Smith has impressed in his first full Xfinity Series campaign. April’s Richmond victory locked the No. 16 team into the Playoffs, with five top-10s since then. The 21-year-old will rely heavily on experience from within the walls at Kaulig and plenty of talented teammates to help him advance forward.
“The notebook and experience that’s under the roof at Kaulig Racing between AJ (Allmendinger), Daniel (Hemric) and some of the other drivers we’ve had like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch this year has definitely helped me adapt to the Xfinity car,” Smith said. “I feel like we’ve had a good group of drivers come through this year, and it’s helped everybody in the organization.”
“I think you just have to put (bad results) behind you and reset, right? The Playoffs is a reset for everyone, you go to what you had in Playoff points after the bonuses and whatnot. It’s a clean slate. I went from being 150 or 200 points behind Austin Hill to now much closer. It’s a clean slate for everyone, our team especially. We’re going to regroup for this Playoff run and try to give it our best.”
“I feel like (Playoff) experience last year (in the Truck Series) helped me a lot. Especially going into the Playoffs last year with so many bonus points I could point my way in with solid finishes. We just didn’t need to beat ourselves or get into anybody’s trouble. Pointing yourself in is what we did, I don’t think we won a Playoff race, and we made Phoenix. This year I feel like it’s helped me, going in I feel like we can point our way through this first round. But the next round we’re either going to have to win or somebody’s going to have a failure or something will have to happen for us to make Phoenix. Just being able to know and identify the situation at hand is good. I wouldn’t be able to do that without the experience from last year.”
Smith’s lone win is the only victory for a contending Kaulig car all year. Performance has dipped a bit for the three-car team this season, but some strong tracks do lie ahead for Smith. Only having a slim three-point buffer above the elimination line leaves no room for error though.
On sheer speed and results, the top four drivers above are runaway favorites for the Championship 4. We have seen this Playoff format be ruthless before to all drivers though, so nothing is guaranteed. Over the coming seven weeks, big things should be expected from these top-six teams. One of them will likely be crowned 2023 Xfinity Series champion. The road to the big stage though is sure to have plenty of twists and turns.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Jamie Squire/Getty Images
