NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Can Hit a Kansas Jackpot in the Hollywood Casino 400?
A lot is on the table for this weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. 15 Playoff drivers are all gunning for the guaranteed pass to the Round of 12 that comes with the checkered flag. Last week’s winner Kyle Larson isn’t too shabby at the 1.5-mile track either, going for back-to-back victories. Here are a few drivers to watch out for in race two of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs at the Heartland track.
Denny Hamlin
The all-time winningest driver at Kansas Speedway, Denny Hamlin took this title in May. Hamlin’s winning move undeniably raised some eyebrows, with the No. 11 aero-pushing Kyle Larson out of the way on the last lap. Now racing for a fifth Kansas win and the season sweep, Hamlin enters this weekend as the odds-on favorite. The best car by a wide margin in Darlington, Hamlin has something to prove at one of his best venues.
“Kansas has been a great track for me, Chris Gabehart and our 11 team,” Hamlin said. “Obviously winning the race there in the spring gives us some extra confidence going back. That helps me to not get too caught up in ‘Oh my gosh. What happened at Darlington?’ I’ve got to shift my focus to Kansas. I’ve learned that you have to live with the result because you can’t change it. So, we’re moving forward and working on the next race. We’ll be as ready as possible when we get there and then just have to execute the race as a team. If we do that, we’ll be fine.”
If not for a loose wheel, Hamlin was on pace for one of the most dominant wins of the season in Darlington. Should a fraction of that speed return this week, then the competition will have a long day ahead. With three wins and six top-fives in the last eight Kansas races, Hamlin deservedly has this week’s shortest victory odds.
Kyle Larson
The driver Hamlin nudged out of the way for May’s win was Kyle Larson. Coming into Kansas with the most momentum and the least stress, Larson could be dangerous going all out. Including his win in this race two years ago, the 5 rides a streak of four-straight Kansas top-10s. Expect Larson’s strategy to be a max-points effort. Should Larson be up front again with Hamlin, things could end up very different than four months ago.
“I would say leading into the Playoffs I had really no confidence in myself,” Larson said. “I think having a good run at Darlington helps but it’s only one weekend. I’m not going to get too far ahead of myself. I want to focus on putting some solid weeks together. I know we are capable of it. We’ve done it before. I just want to remind myself that I can do it consistently and I know that we can do it consistently. There are some good tracks for us coming up and hopefully we can get that confidence up and build some momentum. We got off to a good start. I hope we can keep it rolling here at Kansas.”
In the three starts since his Kansas win, the 5 has a worst result of eighth. Larson should be seen as a stout threat, with the 5 team appearing to return to 2021 form. Their Kansas victory that season was also a back-to-back win, part of a Playoff threepeat by Larson. Very much like Darlington a week ago, Hamlin’s 11 trumps prerace odds with Larson not far behind.
Bubba Wallace
Last fall, Kansas marked a second career win for Bubba Wallace. The 23XI Racing driver led a then-career best 58 laps in his most recent victory, upsetting the Playoff party. Trying to defend this win, expect Wallace to be as quick as his fellow Toyota teammates. The 23 team should look at Kansas as a must-perform day, but not necessarily must-win yet. Wallace enters Kansas just one point below the top-12 cut line.
“I think we have a really good shot,” Wallace said. “This first round is really suited for us. ‘One down, two to go’ is what Freddie (Kraft, spotter) said after the race ended, crossing the start/finish line last weekend. We just need to do the same thing we did at Darlington. I need to clean some things up for sure, but the way we executed the second and third Stages was really really good and really positive. To walk away with a top-10 was big, especially after how the day started. But I think if we just go out and run our own race this weekend, everything will take care of itself.”
“If it’s meant to be then we’ll move on. We have to just make sure that we don’t leave the racetrack Sunday night wishing that we would have done something different or knowing that there was something left out on the table.”
Kansas has the potential to be a Playoff-defining day for Wallace. If driver or team stumbles and implodes on themselves, this could mark the end of their title path. If the 23 does stay clean and in contention all day though, then enough points to leapfrog the cut line should follow suit. Wallace’s mindset is on the right track heading into this weekend. Over the course of 400 miles, Wallace must remain at this point of zen relaxation and focus in order to find success.
Martin Truex Jr
Another driver who can never be counted out at Kansas is Martin Truex Jr. Truex lays claim to two Kansas victories, coming in a 2017 season sweep that helped propel him to a championship. Since then, MTJ has 10 top-10s in 11 Kansas starts. After a horrendous showing last week in Darlington, Truex is chomping at the bit to return to one of his best tracks.
“I would say Kansas is a lot like Homestead but with a tri-oval,” Truex said. “Similar corners and little bit of progressive banking. The wall has really come into play the last couple of years there since the asphalt has worn out. So, running high is very important there, and also momentum is very important at Kansas. You have a big, wide front straightaway that gives you the option to make big bold moves on the restarts where it can get pretty wild there. Kansas is definitely high on my list of places I like to race and we are hoping for a great weekend there with our Bass Pro Shops Camry.”
The 19 team that showed up at Darlington looked like anything but the regular season championship-winning crew. A poor qualifying effort set Truex back from the start and he simply never recovered, finishing a quiet 18th. Ideally that horrid weekend and result can be put behind the 19, and Truex can rally forward in Kansas. MTJ does boast a streak of eight-straight top-10s here, including eighth in May. If Hamlin is the favored Toyota, then Truex shouldn’t be far off his rear bumper.
Kevin Harvick
Making his 36th and final trek out to Kansas is Kevin Harvick. Driver 4 has three Kansas checkered flags, most recently coming in 2018. In the 10 Kansas races since Happy’s last win, he’s batting .500 for top-10s. After having a prime winning chance snatched away in Darlington, Harvick eyes retribution in Kansas.
“I think Kansas has been a great racetrack and, really, from a driver’s standpoint, a fun racetrack because of the fact that it’s worn in so well,” Harvick said. “You can race at the top of the racetrack, which is the preferred groove as the tires wear out. It’s faster at the bottom of the racetrack on new tires. But as a driver, having options is something that is a lot of fun. With Atlanta having been repaved along with some of the other racetracks, Kansas has become one of the more unique racetracks because of the fact the asphalt and the shape of the racetrack are so driver-friendly, as far as where you can drive on the racetrack. You can literally drive from the wall to the apron all the way around the racetrack. So, it’s a fun racetrack. It’s been good to us and, hopefully, we can continue that trend on Sunday.”
“These cars, in certain situations, have worn the tires a lot more than what they’ve done in the past. Kansas can be a high-wear racetrack just because of the way that the surface has aged, which is a great thing. So, I think for a lot of that, you’ll just have to see what the pit windows are and what the tire wear is when we go there. But it’s definitely a racey track. Those guys can see a lot more on the pit box than I can see in the car. I usually just go with what they tell me and kind of roll from there.”
“You have to be good middle to the top of the racetrack in order to make good time at Kansas and be able to survive on the long run and make enough speed, so that’s what we’ll concentrate on.”
Back-to-back DNFs at Darlington and Kansas saw Harvick eliminated in the Round of 16 last year. This year, Harvick only mustered 19th-place after a late pit road penalty in the Southern 500. Only two points below the cut line, Harvick can still easily move up into the top-12. Kansas is a great place for Harvick to get his retirement tour back on track. Expect a top-10 day if not better ahead for car number 4.
Tyler Reddick
Darlington runner-up Tyler Reddick is poised very nicely for a potential Kansas victory. Toyotas have won the last three Kansas races, with Reddick ninth in the spring. For a track as wall-dominant as Kansas, Reddick is all-but assuredly going to be one of the first drivers rim riding. In this race last year, Reddick was also leading when he blew a tire, ending his day.
Reddick should be one of the best hanging it all out as well. The determination, patience and skill required at Kansas are very similar to Darlington. The No. 45 went to victory lane twice on this intermediate track last year, with Reddick going for a hat trick. If his team can execute well, then Reddick should be on pace for another strong showing.
Toyotas are without a doubt favored for their fourth-straight Kansas victory. Execution issues that left them shut out in Darlington though do show chinks in their armor. Even with such great recent history, the field of potential winners is far from a Toyota guarantee. The Kansas green flag will fly Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Kansas gave us a highlight reel finish in May; can more drama unfold with the Playoffs on the line?
Written by Peter Stratta
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