NASCAR
How Will Ford Mustangs Fare in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs?
By sheer numbers, Ford has the best chance of all three manufacturers at taking the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series title. Six of the sixteen teams in the Playoff field are from the blue oval brigade, representing four different teams. From the hottest driver to past champions to underdogs, Ford’s 2023 Playoff group is a very eclectic mix of contenders. Here are all six Ford drivers and their chances at hoisting the Bill France Cup as champions in 10 weeks.
Chris Buescher – 2,021 points
The Playoff fate for Chris Buescher and RFK Racing may have been evident months ago. What few did foresee happening was the 17 winning three of the last five races in the regular season. Buescher’s three victories all came on a wide variety of tracks, showing RFK’s strength at nearly all venues. Richmond, Michigan and Daytona are the three victory lane stops for the 17 over the last month. Thanks to these timely wins, Buescher vaulted his way up to the fourth Playoff seed. Expectations may have drastically shifted in a positive way for the 17 crew. Hardly anyone would disagree with calling them the best Ford team in the sport.
“We certainly have the momentum on our side right now,” Buescher said. “Shoot, for Playoff points that’s a huge step in the right direction. That puts us in a great spot here to head through the first round and all the way to Phoenix. But there are so many races along the way that I feel like we have such a good shot at.”
Buescher is not solely fourth seed based on the three wins. A scary realization for the competition, the 17 team did not simply show up in their July and August heater. Ending sixth in the regular season standings, Buescher has not finished worse than 18th since April. No other Playoff contender has equaled this impressive run. This level of continued consistency plus the wealth of bonus points should carry the 17 through a round or two. It is not unrealistic to see Buescher mount a serious threat at a Championship 4 berth. Between Bristol, the Roval and Talladega, the 17 could visit a few more victory lanes before the year is up.
Brad Keselowski – 2,010 points
Closing out the regular season literally and figuratively right behind Buescher was team owner Brad Keselowski. The 6 not only pushed the 17 to the Daytona win, but also finished fifth in points. Keselowski’s final points tally fell just shy of Buescher. Keselowski could have and would have made a move for the victory if any other car was ahead of him. Despite still being winless for over two years, second ties Keselowski’s best result of the year. All of RFK Racing is seemingly peaking at the perfect time for a Playoff push. Even though it was not a win, Keselowski was still proud of how Daytona played out.
“We still achieved one of our big results,” Keselowski said after the Daytona runner-up result. “Of course, we wanted to win today, but we wanted to get fifth in the regular-season points. To take all those bonus points into next week being fifth rather than 11th or 12th, whatever we could have fallen back to. That’s going to bode well for us in the Playoffs.”
“Every year you see somebody get knocked out by one or two points. That’s great defense for us against that.”
“We look at the races to come with Darlington and Kansas and Bristol. Darlington being one of my favorite tracks, ran really well there, coming off of two strong races at Darlington. Then Bristol being one we won at, had dominant cars last fall. There’s a lot of energy for us, a lot of great racing to look forward to.”
“We’re building something that’s going to be special for a long time. That’s a big goal of mine. I’m proud of everybody in the team, certainly Chris for his efforts.”
“The bigger picture is to have a sustainable race team that can win championships for years to come. To be a perennial championship contender. Today was good progress for that. 1-2 finishes are huge for teams. This was certainly another case of that for us.”
Starting his 11th Playoff appearance as the ninth seed, Keselowski does have a bit of breathing room ahead of the cut line. The 2012 champion did lead 109 laps at Bristol last year. He also has four top-10s in five superspeedway races this season. Keselowski is surely eyeing both Bristol and Talladega as chances to end his long losing drought. With RFK’s recent speed though, it will be hard to fully count out Keselowski anywhere. Experience and confidence in his team could lead to a lengthy Playoff run for the 6.
Joey Logano – 2,008 points
Reigning champion Joey Logano has been relatively quiet in recent months. Locking up his Playoff fate in March from Atlanta, this was the 22’s most recent win. Top-10s the last two weeks do have the 22 with some postseason momentum though. If this scenario seems familiar, it’s because Logano has won both of his titles after one-win regular seasons. Now one of the most experienced drivers in the field, Logano knows how to properly temper expectation for each Playoff round.
“The first round is just don’t screw it up,” Logano said. “I know that’s easy to say and a little harder to do, considering what’s on the line and obviously as hard as Darlington is with as many laps right next to the wall and as many pit stops as there are. There’s plenty of opportunities to screw it up, so trying to just get through that one is the goal.”
“(Darlington is) one of our better racetracks as a team anyway, so we just need to maximize that day. It seems like, to me, the first race of each round is the most important race. It sets you up for the next two and how you would attack those. So if you can get through that day and have thirty something points over the cut, you’re in pretty good shape to be smart the next two races and get through. You put yourself a little bit behind the eight ball after Darlington, then you have a little more challenging next two weeks to get through. So to me, the first race of each round is very important.”
Logano’s lackluster regular season has him as the 11th seed, starting only one point clear of the cut line. A win is likely not needed for the 22 in the opening round, but top-fives certainly are. Should Logano survive the opening cutoff, then the Round of 12 will be a do-or-die with a points deficit. Past championship seasons have allowed Logano to sneak into the Round of 8 and win that first race. If Logano makes this year’s Round of 12, a win is all but required there. Logano has the unusual stat of making the Championship 4 every even-numbered year. The 22 team in 2023 is trying to rewrite history by repeating as champions.
Ryan Blaney – 2,008 points
Erasing his long winless streak at Charlotte in May, Ryan Blaney is eerily similar to his teammate Logano. Both Penske cars are tied as the last two drivers tentatively above the cut line. Much like Logano last year, a single-victory season so far is not enough to write off Blaney yet. The 12 was top-10 in half of the Playoff races a season ago. A few costly self-inflicted Round of 8 errors kept Blaney out of Phoenix, where he was second to Logano. A year removed and admittedly lacking some speed, Blaney looks forward to the coming weeks.
“I’m excited to get here to Darlington next week,” Blaney said. “We’ve been working super hard to get a little better at these racetracks and find some speed. Hopefully, we’re going in the right direction. It’s a hard race next week and it’s a lot about just running all 500 miles really. Hopefully we can do that and have no mistakes and have a good car.”
“Just working hard trying to find pace and speed. You hope you bring your best stuff. Everyone is working really hard to figure out where we need to be, so I feel good going into Darlington. Our cars were okay there in the spring. This race is a little bit different with getting into the night and stuff like that. In this race a lot of people always seem to have problems too. It’s the first race of the Playoffs, it’s the 500, it’s a tough race to finish. So a lot of mistakes are made. I think at Darlington you just have to try to have a mistake-free night, run all 500 miles of it and figure out where you’re at for the end. I do feel good about Darlington.”
Since winning Charlotte, Blaney has hardly stood out from the pack or done anything impressive. The 12’s best result in the last eight races in ninth, coming three times. Top-10s should be enough to survive the Round of 16, but will not cut it beyond there. Between Texas, Talladega and the Roval, Blaney is almost assuredly must-win at one of those tracks. Advancing onward while lacking speed is an uphill battle, but not impossible.
Michael McDowell – 2,007 points
The Cinderella story of these Playoffs, the glass slipper fit Michael McDowell three weeks ago at Indianapolis. Leading 54 laps that day, the 34 asserted themselves as a true road course threat. Talladega and the Charlotte Roval each loom in the Round of 12. Both of these races serve as a gateway to the elite eight for McDowell. In order to first get there however, he must survive the opening round as the 13th seed. McDowell addressed the difficulties of their upcoming battle, but he’s aware that anything can happen in the opening round.
“It’s no secret that this year is unique because you’ve had drivers that haven’t run all the races,” McDowell said. “So we’re not sitting here saying, oh, man, look at us. We’re saying, this is our shot, because of those circumstances. Because some of the top guys haven’t won, and some of those guys missed races, it’s opened up the window for us to have a shot.”
“Now doing what we did (at Indy), I feel like is what we needed to do. I felt like no matter what, there’s going to be somebody that wins from behind (the top 16). I’m glad that that somebody was us. We were below the cut line and we won, and now we’re that person.”
“We have limitations, and some of those limitations I can’t control. I can’t. But at the same time, all it’s going to take is a little bit more support and a little bit more funding, and I think we can. Are we there today? No, we’re not there today.”
“We have the building blocks and foundation to do it. We just need a few more things to do it. Without getting into the nuts and bolts of everything, my owner Bob Jenkins still spends a lot of his own money to do this, and he loves it. He’s excited. He’s over the moon today. This is a great day for him.”
“But until we have more support, it’s going to be hard to make it a championship-contending team week in and week out. But I do think we have the building blocks to go in that direction.”
“When you look at like Trackhouse, it gives me a lot of confidence that it can be done. You’ve just got to put the pieces together and have it there to do it. I think we’re close. I think we just need a little bit more in every area, and we could put that together.”
In McDowell’s lone Playoff appearance two years ago, he saw a first round exit. This fate was sealed after a crash in the opening Playoff race at Darlington. McDowell was in the top-10 though, so strong finishes are very much doable for the 34. Only being one point outside of the top-12, McDowell’s chances at advancing are wide open. Executing three clean races like Indy are the 34’s path forward.
Kevin Harvick – 2,004 points
Making his 17th and final Playoff appearance is 2014 champion Kevin Harvick. Repositioned as the 15th seed with only four bonus points, Harvick is already in a points hole. Preparing for one last bid at a NASCAR championship, Harvick was tight-lipped on putting expectations ahead for the Stewart-Haas Racing team.
“I don’t really know (if it’s possible to predict what will happen in the Playoffs),” Harvick said. “We’ll just go race every week and see what happens. I don’t want to predict anything.”
“When the Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus era was in full swing and they were both still together back in 2015, we had to make some decisions on how we wanted to race. We wanted to race like them, and that was championship mode every week so that you didn’t have to figure out how to do something different when you got to the Playoffs and try to put on this new face or this new mindset, or we’re going to do this differently or that differently. You’ve got to have that figured out before you get there. Relying on the ability of things that you’ve done in the past to just continue to be able to do that going forward. Hopefully the cars are better and you can rely on that extra speed as you go into the Playoffs. We try to do the same things week after week. Rodney (Childers, crew chief) doesn’t have a demeanor change whether the sky is falling or if it’s cold or hot outside or fast or slow, he’s pretty much the same guy. That helps us all because he’s so even-keeled about everything that he does.”
“I worry less about what I want to accomplish and just try to accomplish what I need to accomplish. That is to engage with my team on a week-to-week basis to get the most out of our cars. There is a great responsibility that comes with being prepared and being a part of that process. You want to do everything you can to try and take as much as you can out of every single week that you’re at the racetrack because, eventually, there won’t be a next week. It’ll be what you used to do, and you want to give it your all while you can.”
The 4EVER retirement tour has fallen a bit short of many people’s 2023 expectations for Kevin Harvick. The 4 did end the regular season ranked eighth in points, with 12 top-10s and a best result of second. Starting off the Playoffs as the next-to-last seed though, Harvick is dangerously close to must-win territory ahead of Darlington. The South Carolina track is where Harvick was runner-up in May, one of his favorite stops on the circuit. Last year’s spontaneous fire ended an astounding decade-long top-10 streak for Harvick at The Track too Tough to Tame.
Above almost every other driver in the field, Harvick has an uncanny ability to will his car forward a few positions higher than it should finish. If the future Hall of Famer is to last deep into his final Playoffs, he will need to dig into his bag of tricks.
RFK Racing has the recent momentum. Team Penske has the history of getting it done last year. Stewart-Haas trumps the field in experience. Front Row Motorsports are the lovable underdogs. Only making up six of the 26 regular season wins, Fords could find speed in perfect time to stun the competition. It will be a fascinating 10-week journey ahead for all six of these drivers. All six Mustangs have their eyes set on the big stage at Phoenix Raceway and the Bill France Cup.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Sean Gardner/Getty Images
