Who Can Conquer the Challenge of COTA?

Photo Credit to Logan Riely/Getty Images for NASCAR

NASCAR

Stratta’s Six: Who Can Win in NASCAR’s Third Trip to COTA?

Sunday will be the first time NASCAR goes left and right in 2023. In the third annual trip to COTA in Austin, Texas, the list of potential winners is wide open. While road course ace Chase Elliott is still sidelined, this race is anything but lacking in star power. Past F1 champions, a seven-time Cup champion, an IndyCar star, and a sports car racing champion will all take Sunday’s green flag alongside NASCAR’s best.

This race at COTA will be unlike past years though, adding the choose rule and subtracting Stage cautions. With all of this in mind, who are some favorites for Sunday’s Texas triumph? Last year came down to a final corners throwdown, can we see similar drama this time?

Ross Chastain

Last year’s COTA winner, Ross Chastain put the NASCAR world on notice at this race 12 months ago. After earning three-straight top-threes, the 1 ended in P1 after a race-long duel with AJ Allmendinger. These two drivers were on both ends of the classic finish; Chastain punted the 16 out of the way for the victory. Little did anyone know at the time, but COTA started a run that would end just shy of the 2022 NASCAR Cup title.

“Last year’s win was huge for so many people and so many different reasons,” Chastain said. “It was my first win, it was Justin’s first win as a team owner, it was my crew chief’s first win in his position, my spotter’s first win, and some of the crew guys, it was their first win. These people all put so much effort into making the car go fast and I have to execute to the car’s fullest extent, and when that happens and we win, there’s no greater feeling. I also got to share a special moment with my brother who was one of my spotters and I got to pick him up out there after he climbed over the fence, and we rode in the car together all of the way to victory lane. Those are the moments are so special. He’s six years younger than me but we are so close and he’s watched me have great opportunities and watched me have great opportunities go away.” 

“I’m so happy to have the same group of people around me for this season. Its so hard in this sport to keep the same groups together whether its because someone wants a different travel schedule, they get another opportunity at another team, or they have some other reason. We are the exact same group, from crew chief, to engineers, to crew guys, the pit crew, truck drivers – I mean everyone is the same. That’s very valuable to have in this sport and its rare that it happens, so I think its very significant that we’ve been able to do that.”

The same Trackhouse No. 1 team that stood tall as COTA winners in 2022 hope to replicate that effort in 2023. Entering this weekend third in points with two top-10s, Chastain is poised for another strong day at this circuit. If the 1 is anywhere near the lead late, Chastain will do whatever it takes to smash another watermelon.  

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports is a corner away from being 2-2 in both COTA races. Despite the weight of the louvers penalty still hanging over them, HMS should bring four fast Camaros to Texas. Since Chase Elliott is still recovering, Kyle Larson could step up as a new road course ace. The 5 was a close second in 2021 from COTA, and aims for one spot better in 2023.

“We’ve gotten both COTA’s I feel like,” Larson said. “(We got) the monsoon the first year, which was my first-ever time really racing in the rain. So that was a blast. We came up a little short there because it started raining a little too hard and we had to call the race short. We were in position to win that one. Last year, I didn’t qualify well, didn’t race well and did a terrible job on restarts. I look forward to going back to hopefully do a better job behind the wheel, having a better setup under us and having a better opportunity to race for a win would be great.”

Larson enters COTA as the odds-on favorite for Sunday’s win. The 5 was within striking distance for two of the last three wins. Larson just may end Sunday with another road course victory.

AJ Allmendinger

The winningest road course racer in NASCAR history, AJ Allmendinger is expecting a very strong weekend in COTA. Allmendinger has been second and first in two COTA Xfinity races. Across both Sunday races as well, the 16 was fifth and in position to steal last year’s win. Running double-duty for Kaulig Racing, Allmendinger could easily walk away from this weekend with two victories. 

“Obviously last year we had a really good shot to win the race,” Allmendinger said. “It’s a completely different year with a completely different package. Hopefully we’ll unload close to what we had last year and just build off of that as the weekend goes on. New way of racing without stages there, so you have to qualify well and try to run up front because there isn’t much you can do strategy wise. We know this is a weekend we can run up front, score good points and hopefully give ourselves the chance to win which is the ultimate goal.”

“I think as an organization, where we are as a race team, we’re going to have some ups and downs. You’re going to have some struggles, and it’s important to try and take advantage of the racetracks that we’re supposed to be really good at. The mindset still doesn’t change though. I’m still going (to COTA) with a mindset that the ultimate goal is to win the race. It’s great to run in the top-five, if we do that all day and we have a good day it’s nice, but it’d disappointing if we don’t win. I think it’s more important as the season goes on to see ‘okay are we going to have to win a race to even get in,’ or are we close enough on points? Fontana hurt us for sure. I haven’t even looked at the points and probably won’y for a long time. So the mindset is go there and win.”

Added track time should pay dividends for Allmendinger’s confidence at taking home both COTA checkered flags. One of NASCAR’s best ever road course talents, Allmendinger hopes to add to his trophy case Saturday and Sunday.

Kyle Busch

2021’s COTA Xfinity winner, Kyle Busch boasts one top-five in Cup and should have had another top-10 last year. On the last lap, Busch was spun from contact, having to settle for 28th. Now with the 8 team who have two COTA top-10s, Busch could earn win two of 2023 on Sunday.

“I enjoy road course racing and COTA is really fun,” Busch said. “It’s obviously high prestige with it being a Formula One track when Formula One comes to the United States that those guys get to race on there, so it’s nice to have a shot on a big stage like that. Our cars are really big, really heavy and makes it for a big challenge getting those vehicles around there fast. There’s a lot of rhythm sections to the esses and down through the back area in the stadium section. It really is tough to kind of get a car that is really good set up for there. Our big, heavy stock cars are a challenge to try and slow them down in the braking zones. We obviously have to brake well earlier than many other divisions that get to race there but it still makes it for a fun road course.”

“Road course racing has definitely gotten a lot tighter and has increased on the competition level for sure. It used to be easy to kind of go to a track and think that you can come away with a top-five. Now you kind of go to a road course and you think you can come out of there with a top-10 and you’re hoping for a top-five. I think a lot of it, obviously, has to do with driver preparation. Everybody is getting more accustomed to road racing and with more road courses on our schedule plus the parity within the car and everybody running much of the same stuff. You don’t really have teams that are able to splurge on brakes or suspension components and things like that to make your stuff better than someone else’s. That makes it tough.”

“Getting to go there and run the Goodyear tire test earlier this year was really important for the chemistry of the team and just getting started off on the right foot. I think, though, with the aero changes that have now come about, we weren’t prepared for that, so we didn’t test that aero package that we’re going back to the road course with this weekend. We did get laps, but it wasn’t laps and reps in the proper setting.”

Much like Allmendinger, added track time can only benefit Kyle Busch’s COTA efforts. Busch will make his second Craftsman Truck Series start of 2023 on Saturday, ideally adding another win there. The RCR 8 team also won on two road courses last season, they should come out swinging again.

Austin Cindric

Even falling just short of a top-10, Atlanta last week was arguably Austin Cindric’s best showing of 2023. The 2 was one of the three lightning-quick Penske Fords that dominated the day. After a trying first few weeks of the season, the 2 team looks to COTA as a turning point. Cindric could turn some heads with his wealth of road racing experience.

“I’d say the first couple of races were a bit frustrating for us,” Cindric said. “Just getting put into the wall three weeks in a row is just not going to be good for points. From that standpoint, last weekend was definitely our best points weekend in Atlanta. I’d say, the points are also extremely tight right now because everyone is kind of having that up-and-down trying to find that footing. That’s where going into this year, I really thought you’d see the same parity and the same up-and-down performance, trying to find our consistency as you saw from a lot of groups last year. And that’s continuing this year. That consistency is huge for being in control of your own destiny points wise. I’m still of the belief that you’ll have to win a race to feel comfortable as far as Playoffs are concerned. So, from that standpoint, Playoff points are nice but a win still gets everything done for you.”

The 2022 Rookie of the Year has a road course win in Trucks and Xfinity, but is 0-9 on Sundays. COTA could change this trend, as Cindric still chases his first win since last year’s Daytona 500.

Daniel Suarez

While Ross Chastain is remembered for winning COTA last year, his teammate Daniel Suarez dominated the first half. The Trackhouse 99 led every lap in Stage 1, only for a restart spin to set him back. Suarez would win on another road course at Sonoma a few months later. After such a strong showing escaped the 99’s grasp last year, Suarez eyes vengeance in Austin.

“I feel like that track owes me one,” Suarez said. “We had a very fast car there last year and I felt like we were going to win the race if we didn’t have any problems. Unfortunately, we did but Ross was able to get the win for Trackhouse. I was glad to see that, but I really thought we were going to be in victory lane.”

Between Suarez, Chastain, and Kimi Raikkonen, Team Trackhouse will bring three fast Chevrolets to COTA. Sunday marks one year since this team’s first win. Suarez and Chastain are both heavily favored to put The House back in Austin victory lane.

Coverage of the Echopark Automotive Grand Prix begins Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. COTA has the potential to be the biggest unknown race since the Daytona 500. Between a stacked field of ringers, no Stage breaks, and the choose rule, this road course will look unlike anything NASCAR has seen in recent years. Can any of the above drivers can end Sunday partying in Austin? Be sure to not miss a single corner of action.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit Logan Riely/Getty Images for NASCAR