Predicting the 2023 Cup Series Playoffs

by
Peter Stratta
January 7, 2023

Photo Credit to NASCAR Media

Stratta’s 16: Trying to Pick the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs

With January now upon us, which drivers are favored to make the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs? The regular season lasts from February’s Daytona 500 until a return to Daytona in August. After these 26 races, a select 16 drivers will compete over the last 10 weeks for the 2023 Bill France Cup. Here’s a breakdown of every chartered full-time driver and their chances at ultimate glory in 2023’s Playoffs.

Confident

Eight of the 16 coveted Playoff spots are relatively easy to fill. These eight drivers include all of 2022’s Championship 4: Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott. Also in this elite eight drivers are: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick. All of them won at least once in 2022, so expect no change from these for 2023.

These eight are all yearly championship favorites, and six of them are with their same team from 2022. Busch and Reddick are at entirely new teams and manufacturers though. However, their respective speed and talent should be good enough for a few regular season victories.

Longest Shots

From all-but-definitely in, there are a few drivers who need a miracle for a Playoff berth. They include both Spire Motorsports drivers of Ty Dillon and Corey Lajoie, as well as Cody Ware. While they do have the longest odds of a Playoff appearance, their chances are not zero. Lajoie had a top-five in the Atlanta spring race, and led late in July’s Atlanta race. Dillon has also shown superspeedway prowess, as did Ware in last year’s regular season finale.

Could Win

At slightly greater Playoff chances than the long shots are those that could sneak into victory lane. This list includes many that have yet to win a Cup Series race, as well as a few veterans. On this tier are both Front Row Motorsports drivers: veteran Michael McDowell and sophomore Todd Gilliland. Other second-year talent Harrison Burton is solidly in this group, as is rookie Noah Gragson, Stewart-Haas Racing newcomer Ryan Preece, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. All of these drivers have seen success in NASCAR’s lower levels and are capable of a Cup Series win. Either lacking experience or quality of car keeps these few from regular contention.

Bubble

The 2023 Playoffs bubble battle drivers are those who could realistically be anywhere from 12th-25th in the regular season standings. Based on the number of winners, some of these drivers could make the postseason on points. However, a few of them could as easily end up in victory lane, upending these picks. In this ranking are both cars from RFK Racing (Keselowski and Buescher) and Kaulig Racing (Haley and Allmendinger), as well as Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola, Bubba Wallace, Erik Jones and rookie Ty Gibbs.

Contender

Who will make up the final eight Playoff berths? Joining defending champion Joey Logano, both of his Penske teammates (Cindric and Blaney) should win their way in. Both Stewart-Haas cars that made the cut in 2022 (Harvick and Briscoe) are in great position again. In addition, Hendrick Motorsports (Byron and Bowman) should be perfectly represented again with one-fourth of the 16-driver field.

This leaves two more 2023 Playoff spots open for the taking. After making his maiden Playoff appearance a season ago, Daniel Suarez should make the cut once again. The Trackhouse 99 could see multiple trips to victory lane.

As the final Playoff berth, I predict Martin Truex Jr. to make 2023 a bounce-back year. Winless since 2021, the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 team only missed out on 2022’s Playoffs by three mere points. Nothing seemed to go right for the 2017 champion a season ago. A new year will hopefully bring better luck to MTJ.

These predictions are entirely one person’s opinion and are very prone to being incorrect. It appears that at least half of the future Playoff grid is easy to fill. Likewise, the remaining spots are where there’s room for debate. The 2022 regular season ended with 16 winners, could we perhaps match or even eclipse this mark in 2023? The Daytona 500 is only six weeks away, bringing with it the first driver to secure a Playoff berth. It will be very intriguing all year long to track who’s in the Playoffs and who has work to do, especially in the closing weeks of the regular season. In August, this list will be revisited to see just how right or wrong my educated guesses were.