NASCAR
Will Parity Among Winners Remain in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series?
The Next Gen car’s debut in 2022 saw a historic level of parity for the NASCAR Cup Series. Through 36 races, 19 different drivers found victory lane, tying 2001’s record for most winners. Of those 19, five saw career win number one on the Cup tour. Five first-time winners is also the most in over a decade. With safety modifications coming to the Next Gen car for its second year, will the playing field still have this unprecedented balance? Breaking the Cup Series down by team, which drivers are most likely to find more checkered flags in 2023?
Hendrick Motorsports
The winningest team in NASCAR history, 2022 saw a very successful campaign for Hendrick Motorsports. All four of their young talents saw victory lane a combined 11 times, as Chase Elliott led the way with five wins. As defending champion, Kyle Larson backed up his 10-win 2021 season with three more victories, yet saw an untimely early Playoff exit. William Byron also took two of the opening eight races, while Alex Bowman won once.
Expect all four of these drivers to win again in the new year and perhaps all multiple times. The only question marks entering 2023 for HMS are with the 48 team and Bowman. After being sidelined five weeks in the Playoffs with a concussion, his performance is still a bit of an unknown, despite coming back for the Phoenix finale. Bowman also enters 2023 with a new crew chief, as Blake Harris replaces the retiring Greg Ives. Between Elliott, Larson and Byron, all three of them should contend for Championship 4 berths. Bowman meanwhile hopes to recapture the magic of his four-win 2021 season.
Joe Gibbs Racing
The Toyota powerhouse will look quite different come 2023, as Joe Gibbs Racing’s all-time winningest star is gone. Replacing Kyle Busch is reigning Xfinity Series champion Ty Gibbs. Though the 18 (now renumbered to the 54) only won once in 2022, Busch’s absence brings with it a big gap in experience and talent. It is still a big mystery just how young Gibbs will perform in the Next Gen car; he only saw one top-10 through 15 starts in 2022.
For JGR’s other three drivers, expect regular winning pace from all of them. Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell totaled five 2022 wins, with Bell making his first Championship 4. While Martin Truex Jr. went winless a season ago, he had several close chances at victory snatched away. The 19 should be able to return to the familiar ground of victory lane and the Playoffs in 2023.
Team Penske
Moving onto the defending championship-winning organization, Team Penske had arguably their best NASCAR season ever in 2022. Rookie Austin Cindric opened the year by winning the Daytona 500, Joey Logano took the championship with four wins, and Ryan Blaney was ultra-consistent. Logano has more than proven himself capable of multiple wins per year, as has Blaney, despite going 0-36. Cindric meanwhile should take a big step forward in his career maturity, as his road course past may pay off dividends. All three Mustangs from the Penske camp should see more than their share of checkered flags in 2023.
Trackhouse Racing
The most surprising team from 2022, few could have predicted both Trackhouse drivers claiming their first career wins. Ross Chastain finishing second in points was even more unlikely. Chastain and Daniel Suarez both had the potential for multiple more wins as well. The 1 and 99 were the class of the field at many road courses, and Chastain led all drivers with 21 top-10s.
Trackhouse totaled just three wins in 2022, but were the picture of consistency otherwise. If not for Suarez losing power steering at the Roval, both Trackhouse cars would have advanced to the Round of 8. In the new year, Trackhouse may only be even stronger at all levels. Don’t think for a moment that either Chastain or Suarez were flashes in the pan, they are both capable of multi-win 2023 seasons.
Stewart-Haas Racing
Entering his 10th and perhaps final season at Stewart-Haas Racing, Kevin Harvick leads a team in transition. Ryan Preece takes over the No. 41, Aric Almirola returns after a postponed retirement, and Chase Briscoe is on the cusp of greatness. This Ford team saw victory three times in 2022, twice from Harvick in August and Briscoe in March.
Preece is an unknown commodity in a new seat, as is Almirola’s inconsistency. Much like 2022, SHR’s oldest and youngest drivers may be carrying the banner for wins. Harvick’s team came to life in perfect time for a Playoff surge, only to be derailed by bad luck. Briscoe also saw a postseason run that nearly ended up in a Championship 4 berth. The 4 and 14 are both likely to be 2023 winners.
RFK Racing
Breaking back into victory lane for the first time in four years at Bristol with Chris Buescher, RFK Racing is looking up for 2023. While Brad Keselowski’s first year as a team owner was largely disappointing, the 6 showed late season promise. Keselowski scored his first top-five at Homestead in October, and was leading late at Martinsville as well.
By far Buescher’s standout performances aside from Bristol were road courses. The 17 saw five road course top-10s in six races, highlighted by a runner-up finish at Sonoma. Buescher should pick up right where he left off on road courses, as RFK hopes to be king of the road once again. Between six superspeedway races as well, Keselowski could easily be a winner again too.
23XI Racing
Things are certainly trending upwards for 23XI Racing entering 2023. Franchise driver Bubba Wallace is coming off of his best season ever, winning at Kansas in September. In addition, the No. 45 gains Tyler Reddick due to Kurt Busch’s injury-driven retirement from full-time racing. Reddick made his presence known in 2022, taking his first career win at Road America in July, and winning twice more.
Reddick appears to be on the precipice of becoming a NASCAR superstar, and a true title contender. Wallace meanwhile hopes to improve on his 10 top-10s and make a maiden Playoff run. Wallace was within a bumper of winning the Daytona 500 last year, expect him to put up a similar effort this coming February. Reddick should also hit the ground running in 2023, as he aims for another multi-win season.
Richard Childress Racing
A new energy permeates throughout the RCR campus in Welcome, North Carolina. Kyle Busch has already planted his flag here over the offseason, as the new driver of the 8. Teaming up with Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing eyes to better the four-win effort from 2022. A hungry Busch with a chip on his shoulder may be dangerous for the competition, as Rowdy hopes to rewrite his career trajectory.
Busch has only won four times since his 2019 championship, while the 8 itself won three times a season ago. While this new pairing may be slow to start, a talent as great as Busch will win eventually. Busch has not had a winless campaign in the past 18 years. Should Busch win with RCR in 2023, it would set a new NASCAR record for most consecutive winning seasons. Busch is expected to win in his new seat, as a Hall of Fame level talent and one of the most naturally-fast drivers on track today.
For Austin Dillon however, the 3 is going for back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2018. Gaining one of the all-time best as a teammate, Dillon should be a more regular threat in the top-10. Not only will Busch at RCR be a treat to see, but it will be interesting to see if Dillon can elevate performance with his new teammate.
Kaulig Racing
The mantra of ‘Trophy Hunting’ could not be more applicable for Kaulig Racing in 2023. After their rookie campaign at the Cup level, they now boast two full-time talents eyeing more wins. Justin Haley had one of the most underrated 2022 efforts of anyone in the No. 31, earning three top-fives and an 18.4 average finish.
Joining Haley now at the main Kaulig operation is AJ Allmendinger. While renowned as a road course specialist, Allmendinger spent the last two years with Kaulig in Xfinity, winning 10 times. This span saw Allmendinger win not only road courses, but also on intermediates, short tracks, and superspeedways. At 41 years old, Allmendinger enters his best opportunity yet to win multiple times in the NASCAR Cup Series. In a part-time 2022 effort, Allmendinger saw four oval top-10s, including third at Homestead. While he will certainly be favored in all five regular season road courses, the 16 could find victory lane just about anywhere.
Petty-GMS Racing
After seeing a few regular season wins escape his grasp, Erik Jones upset all by taking the Playoff-opening Southern 500. This marked the first win for the newly-formed Petty-GMS Racing, as they aim even higher in 2023. Gaining Jimmie Johnson as a co-owner and Noah Gragson as a rookie teammate, Jones has a great network of success-driven people around him to help the 43 succeed again.
Jones was one block away from a Talladega spring win, after also leading laps at Auto Club in February. The 43 has proven to be a regular superspeedway contender; it’s not out of the question to see Jones win his way to a coveted Playoff berth.
Gragson will spend 2023 learning how to manage longer Cup races and the higher level of competition. However, it’s not impossible to perhaps see the 42 earn a win as well in 2023’s second half. With both living seven-time champions teaming up, big things could be on the near horizon for Petty-GMS.
So just how many winners can 2023 see in the NASCAR Cup Series? There’s upwards of 25 cars capable of grabbing a regular season win. This could very easily be the first Playoffs to not see a winner make the cut. While typically regular seasons end with 12 or 13 winners, there are many paths ahead for that elusive 16. As 2022 showed us all, just because the regular season ends with 16, does not mean more cannot still win. The record of 19 winners may be in jeopardy once again, as there are plenty of quality drivers and teams entering 2023.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Sean Gardner/Getty Images for NASCAR
