Who Can Master the Martinsville Cutoff Race?

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Stratta’s Six: Who Will Rise Up in Martinsville Round of 8 Finale?

It all comes down to Martinsville for the Round of 8. Seven drivers will try and vie for one of three available berths in the 2022 Championship 4 over the course of 500 laps Sunday. If anything is to be anticipated in a 2022 Playoff race, it is to expect the unexpected. Six of the eight Playoff races so far have been won by non-championship drivers. Can that streak extend and set a new race winners record? A few drivers in particular have great chances at becoming the season’s 20th different winner Sunday. However, many Playoff contenders are also favored for the Xfinity 500’s Grandfather Clock trophy.

Martin Truex Jr.

Coming within eyesight of a win last week at Homestead, can Martin Truex Jr. end his season on a high note? The 2017 champion has yet to find victory lane all year long, with many heartbreaks. Martinsville has been a personal playground for MTJ in recent memory, with three wins here all since 2019. The 19 was a dismal 22nd here in April however, in a race that saw great struggles for all Toyotas. Trying to not end this year 0-36, Truex has not lost hope of finding victory lane once again.

“Hopefully it’s a better race for us than the first time there,” Truex said. “We were off a little compared to how we’ve been there the past handful of years with the old car. I felt like we got it going pretty good in the race, so if we can just unload a little closer and be able to qualify better, that would help a lot. I feel like we’ve learned a lot as a company since that first race and our teammates tested there a while back, so I think we’ll certainly be better, but it’s going to be really tough to pass like we saw in the spring. Qualifying and pit road are both going to be very important; not that they aren’t always, but this week more so than normal.”

While all attention coming into Sunday will rightfully be on the eight Playoff drivers, Truex could turn heads. This race last year was won by a non-Playoff spoiler, and the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 team hopes to repeat that feat. With confidence aplenty on this tight track, Truex could be dangerous.

William Byron

The April Martinsville winner, that night William Byron led a whopping 212 laps en route to his first Grandfather Clock. What many forget is that Byron actually swept both the Truck and Cup Series events just six months ago. As a result, driver 24 has plenty of recent experience running up front here. This weekend however will be a far steeper challenge for Byron, who enters Martinsville holding the final transfer spot by just five points. Byron will have a target on his back all race long, as the race for a Phoenix berth will be between the 24 and many other hungry drivers. Despite this immense pressure, Byron is optimistic that April’s winning pace will translate well into Sunday.

“I think there’s a little we can apply this weekend from our win there in April,” Byron said. “We had a good test at Martinsville a couple months ago that helped us be able to refine some things since we’ve raced there last. This weekend is going to be a bigger challenge, though, than usual given it’s the final Playoff cutoff race. Everyone will be bringing their ‘A game’ and everything they’ve got. We just need to approach it how we have been so far. You can’t go in thinking about points because (the points situation) changes every lap. You have to go in with the mindset of needing to win, and that’s what we will do this weekend to hopefully ensure our spot in the final four.”

In the thick of the Playoff cut line battle, William Byron and team 24 must execute a perfect race. The past two races in the Round of 8 have shown incredible speed from this Hendrick car, only to have adversity set them back late. With a very slim points cushion, Byron cannot afford to give up any ground to his competition. Whether or not Byron makes his first Championship 4 appearance may ultimately come down to luck and if the 24 can stay up front.

Ryan Blaney

Despite having a 0-13 record at Martinsville, the Virginia track is still one of Ryan Blaney’s best circuits. Driver 12 has six top-fives, seven top-10s, 377 laps led, and an average finish of 10.2 at the paperclip. Blaney was also fourth here in the spring and second in both 2020 races. However, Blaney will all-but-certainly need to capture his first Grandfather Clock to remain alive in the Playoffs. The 12 enters the Round of 8 cutoff as sixth in the standings, 18 points below the final Championship 4 spot.

Of the three drivers in a must-win scenario though, Blaney’s odds are best with his Martinsville track record. Unlike the past two weeks however, the Penske driver cannot afford any unforced self-inflicted errors. Blaney is far from out of the 2022 title hunt, but it may take his first victory of the year to make Phoenix.

Denny Hamlin

On paper Denny Hamlin should be a head and shoulders favorite for Martinsville. With a series-best five Grandfather Clocks, Hamlin is one of the paperclip’s all-time best. However, Hamlin’s most recent Martinsville triumph came all the way back in 2015. With that in mind though, the 11 was in contention late in last year’s Xfinity 500, before Alex Bowman spun him out. After a horrid showing here in April, Hamlin foresees a far stronger performance this time around, in a bid for a fourth-straight Championship 4 run.

“It’s going to be a fight,” Hamlin said. “It’s definitely not going to be easy. I expect that passing is going to be very difficult, so track position is going to be super important. We’ve got to go in there Saturday and qualify up front and have good short run speed in addition to the long run speed. That has hurt us pretty bad the last couple of weeks but knowing how difficult it’s going to be to pass, I think we’ll put a little more emphasis on that and hopefully be able to get some stage points to give ourselves a chance to advance.”

Entering on the outside looking in by five points, Hamlin should be seen as a favorite. The 11 has been the most consistent so far in these Playoffs, as the lone driver with seven top-10s in eight races. While Hamlin does not need to win Sunday, Martinsville is one of his best tracks where he should be a threat for another clock.

Chase Elliott

Even with a very up-and-down Playoffs so far, regular season champion Chase Elliott is a Martinsville favorite. Winner of the 2020 Xfinity 500, Elliott led almost 300 laps here last year, and 185 circuits in April. To be blunt, Martinsville has turned into one of Elliott’s best tracks for leading laps and contending for wins. With just an 11-point edge over the cut line, the 9 must be on the offensive to start Sunday’s race.

“The Martinsville race in the spring was different than any Martinsville race I’ve ever really been a part of in the past,” Elliott said. It was the craziest thing. You couldn’t pass. It was wild to be going that slow and to have a track position race like that. I’m sure it’s going to be more of that (this weekend), and look, that’s fine. It is what it is, right? As competitors, you have to figure out how to be successful in whatever environment is thrown at you, and I think that’s what we’re going to have there.”

“I think a good qualifying effort is going to be really important in how your day’s going to unfold and how much opportunity you’re going to have. Hopefully we can just get it right all weekend because you’re going to have to be on from the beginning. There’s going to be no catching up.”

Back in April, Elliott started on pole and led 185 laps in a Stage-sweeping run. While eventually falling back to finish 10th, another max-points effort from this Hendrick team will help them possibly clinch a Championship 4 berth early. Elliott needs just 45 points to guarantee a third-straight chance at the title. The 9 may be guns blazing to lock up as many points as possible from the start.

Joey Logano

The April Martinsville runner-up, few get around this half-mile track as well as Joey Logano. While only claiming one win from the 2018 Xfinity 500, Logano does boast a streak of six-straight top-10s here. With track position likely at a premium Sunday as well, Saturday’s qualifying session may be one of the most important of the season. Logano has an uncanny knack for time trials at the historic venue, with six poles and a top-10 starting spot in all but one race dating back to 2013. That one outlier was this year’s spring race, where the 22 methodically worked forward all night long. Logano was on Byron’s bumper coming to the checkers, and could be one spot better on Sunday.

The Xfinity 500 is known for Playoff drama aplenty, and 2022 is shaping up to be no different. Don’t miss a lap of action, as race coverage starts Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. With passing being so difficult here in the spring, desperation for a ticket to Phoenix could kick in over the closing laps. There’s no telling what fireworks we may see on or off-track Sunday.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to Meg Oliphant/Getty Images for NASCAR