Can Another Contender Lock into Finale at Homestead?

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Stratta’s Six: Who Can Go High Wide and Handsome at Homestead?

For seven drivers, their 2022 season could be made on Sunday. Homestead-Miami Speedway is the next battleground for the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs, with a coveted Championship 4 spot on the line. Should one of the remaining seven Round of 8 drivers win the Dixie Vodka 400, they would join Joey Logano as locked into Phoenix. As we have seen already in these Playoffs though, non-contending drivers could easily steal headlines and find victory lane. Homestead’s unique character favors a few in particular who are no longer alive in the title hunt. Here are some favorites to watch out for who hope to be partying in South Beach.

Kyle Larson

Despite no longer being a part of the Playoffs, Kyle Larson is beyond due for a Homestead win. In eight career starts at the intermediate track, he’s batting .500 in top-fives. The only blip on a stellar Homestead record is a 2019 engine failure that relegated him to last place. Larson has 330 laps led here, but only has a best result of second. Fourth at Homestead a year ago, Larson is aiming for a few spots better, but the Next Gen car is still an unknown on this distinct track.

“I think this car is just a little different at Homestead-Miami,” Larson said. “Nothing crazy. I think running the wall is a little bit easier but maybe not way faster than it used to be compared to the other lanes. I still think it is just a lot easier to run the wall than before. You may see more people up there and it may be a little bit harder to pass than in the past.”

Coming off what could have been a strong day ending early in Las Vegas, Larson wants to end his title-defense season with one more checkered flag. Perhaps no other track in NASCAR has seen Larson come oh so close so many times, but fail to seal the deal. The 5 will be stout Sunday, looking for win three of the season.

Tyler Reddick

Had last year’s Homestead race been a few laps longer, it would have likely ended with Tyler Reddick victorious. Now officially in his swan song season with Richard Childress Racing, Reddick hopes to park the 8 in one more victory lane. Similar to Larson, Reddick’s dirt racing background pays great dividends at Homestead. The California driver’s two Xfinity wins here earned him his two championships, as he hardly ever left the high line. As a member of a recent test at Homestead, Reddick feels he has an ace up his sleeve.

“I never touched the wall but I ran up against it just about as much as anybody else,” Reddick said. “I loved that we got to test there. Everyone figured out after about three or four laps the top was the place to be. I was watching 10 or 12 drivers that were running and everyone was getting better at running the fence. The drivers who tested there will be really good at running up top when we go back and I’m going to have my work cut out for me, that’s for sure.”

“This Next Gen car is wider than the old car so I felt like I couldn’t get those last couple of inches to the wall so I learned about that a little bit. I never tagged the wall. We were getting ready to have our last long run of the day. We were going to run about 40 laps and we had rain wash out the remainder of our day. I got to learn a lot about the car and what it drove like. We got some decent long run speed but a lot of those other drivers and teams have done their homework well. It’s going to be a tough race this weekend.”

Out of all non-Playoff drivers, Larson and Reddick should be the top two favored against the contenders for Homestead. Reddick’s Homestead Cup career features a fourth and a second. The 8 is primed to be a top-five driver again if not a winner.

William Byron

The defending Homestead winner, last February at this track saw William Byron lead 102 laps. That day, the 24 picked up a Stage win and the overall victory, in what was his first win reunited with Rudy Fugle. In an all new car though, can Byron go back-to-back at Homestead? The Playoff contender also took part in the Homestead test, where Byron feels he gained valuable experience.

“I’m excited to get back to Homestead-Miami this weekend,” Byron said. “Obviously, the last time we raced there we got the win, but a lot has changed since then. We did test there about a month ago with the Next Gen car and it went really well. I think we have a lot of notes that we’re going to be able to apply and have a good starting point for the weekend. We’re only a few points outside the cutline, so we don’t need to do anything drastic during the race either. We just need to show up, execute everything we can control and maximize all the points we can.”

Entering Homestead six points below the top four cutoff line, Byron must perform but also cannot afford to lose any more ground. While Byron may not be a heavyweight favorite for the win, his chances are as good as any other Playoff driver.

Denny Hamlin

Perhaps the best active driver at Homestead, Denny Hamlin lays claim to three victories. South Beach has been kind to the 11 team, with their most recent triumph here being in 2020. Possibly more impressive for Hamlin though is him starting first in the last five Homestead races. Admittedly some did not have qualifying, but that record still stands out. With 393 laps led here, Homestead is one of Hamlin’s personal playgrounds. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver hopes that Homestead can be one step closer to delivering him that elusive championship.

“I’m looking forward to Homestead,” Hamlin said. “We had a very good test there a few weeks ago and really felt like we unloaded as one of the best cars. After two days, the field kind of caught up to us a little bit, but I have a lot of confidence going there. I feel like the driver can make a difference just with the different lines you can run, so I think that fits into our strengths on top of just how strong we have been on these types of tracks this year.”

Tied with Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart at three Homestead victories, Denny Hamlin will try to become the all-time wins leader on the 1.5-mile track this weekend. A win would put Hamlin through to his fourth-straight Championship 4 appearance.

Ryan Blaney

The law of averages has to end up in Ryan Blaney’s favor eventually, right? Las Vegas last week was another great showing for the Penske 12 team, only to have a tire issue put them in the wall late. After being one of the best cars in the field, Blaney had to settle for a disappointing 28th-place result. While Blaney is winless at Homestead, all of Team Penske will be focused on putting their second car into the Championship 4.

Chase Briscoe

Last week Chase Briscoe was on the precipice of the ultimate underdog story. The 14 led in the closing laps, on the doorstep of a Championship 4 berth. At a track where he’s far more confident, Briscoe could be in position to upset the Playoffs again.

“Homestead is a place I definitely know how to get around, but I feel like we’re going to have to be better,” Briscoe said. “I don’t think we expected the tires to get so worn out at Las Vegas and to be slipping and sliding around as much as we were. It gets a little concerning because Las Vegas has way more grip than Homestead does, so we’ll have to work on some things, but I think there’s a lot we’ve probably learned from last weekend that we can apply.”

“We were really good at the test a few weeks ago at Homestead. I was happy with what we learned, so we’ve just got to go down there and see where we stack up. The thing about testing is you can be really good but show up for the race and nothing works the way you planned. So, hopefully we’ll be good this weekend and can have a car that we can be really racey with and come out in a good place in points.”

Even with the strong 4th-place Vegas result, Briscoe’s 14 team is still nine points below the cut. Can Briscoe get an unbelievable bout of Playoff luck again with a Homestead win? The 14 cannot fully be counted out Sunday.

The Dixie Vodka 400 has the chance to be one driver’s biggest day so far of 2022. Either another contender seals their fate in the Championship 4, or a non-Playoff driver will steal this all-important win. Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Homestead also marks the last new track for the Next Gen car. What exactly we will see Sunday is still a bit of a mystery.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to Michael Reaves/Getty Images for NASCAR