Who Can Tame the Talladega Playoff Throwdown?

Photo Credit to James Gilbert/Getty Images for NASCAR

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Stratta’s Six: Who Can Survive 500 Miles at Talladega?

After the most unpredictable and up-in-the-air start to the NASCAR Playoffs, the ultimate unknown is this weekend. Who can outlast the others after 500 grueling, door-banging miles at Talladega Superspeedway? With the points close on both ends of the Round of 8 cut line, all Playoff contenders are in a precarious spot. Here are a few drivers who can pull into victory lane in Sunday’s YellaWood 500.

Ross Chastain

At Talladega in April, Ross Chastain took a win he largely credits to luck. The Trackhouse 1 Chevrolet only held the lead for a few hundred yards in Chastain’s most recent win. While Erik Jones moved up to block traffic, Chastain held a straight wheel, taking his second checkered flag. How does Chastain feel about his chances at a Talladega sweep? His demeanor heading into Sunday is atypical for most defending winners, as he’s taking a far more realist approach.

“Unfortunately, my belief is when you win a superspeedway race, you have to pay it back for a long time so you don’t finish good for a long time,” Chastain said. “So I’ll be very lucky if I get to finish that race. If I can just stay on the bottom again and they move out of my way and I take the checkered flag in first, that would be great. Spring Talladega was wild. We’ll always have good memories but I’ve had a lot of wrecked racecars there. I don’t feel confident just because I won the race there earlier this year. That was pure luck, it’s still hard for me to believe it happened.”

While Chastain may not feel like he did much to earn that win, in truth he did manage to survive all carnage. However, the entirety of Stage 3 ran green in the spring, it is far less likely for that to happen now in the Playoffs. While Chastain may not lead a ton of laps at Talladega, he could very well be in the right position again coming to the finish line.

Brad Keselowski

Perhaps no team has been a bigger surprise in recent weeks than RFK Racing. At Bristol two weeks ago, both cars led over half the race, with Chris Buescher winning. Last week at Texas, Brad Keselowski built upon that momentum, winning the pole and finishing eighth. As a six-time Talladega victor, Keselowski enters this weekend as one of the favorites to become the 20th different winner of 2022. With the organization trending upwards, the 6 could get a seventh win on the superspeedway.

“I’m proud of the changes our company and team have continued to make in recent weeks to get our cars pretty competitive,” Keselowski said. “We’re still not where we want to be, but we’re well on the right track. Talladega is always a great opportunity for us, and it’s been a great place to me through the years. We all know what it comes down to and that’s survival, that’s about all you can hope for in these races these days. We’re looking forward to it and getting the Kohler Generators Ford out on track.”

Keselowski’s most recent triumph came at Talladega, in the spring race last season. Also in this race a year ago, the 2012 champion was runner-up to Bubba Wallace. As one of the all-time winningest drivers at the Alabama track, Keselowski never truly can be counted out of another win.

Ryan Blaney

Another master of the draft, two-time Talladega winner Ryan Blaney is aiming for a third trophy Sunday. As the lone winless driver in the Playoffs, the 12 team wants to find victory lane to properly assert themselves in the title fight. While the suspension for this Penske team was deferred last week, they will not be offered that luxury now. Blaney will go for a third Talladega victory without crew chief Johnathan Hassler and a few pit crew members. Regular team or not, Blaney is one of the best active drafters, and enters Sunday as a co-favorite in betting odds.

Denny Hamlin

Another veteran who’s one of the all-time best on superspeedways, Denny Hamlin is hunting for Talladega win number three. The No. 11 FedEx team enter this weekend fifth in points, 15 ahead of the cut line. Recent history has been very feast-or-famine for Hamlin at Talladega; since 2018 the 11 has a win and four top-10s, but also two finishes worse than 30th. In April, Hamlin was a dismal 18th after being shuffled back late. Hamlin knows that the key to positioning himself on the last lap Sunday will be survival.

“It’s really tough because you can’t predict when a wreck is going to happen,” Hamlin said. “As a driver, you start to feel the intensity of the pack picking up and you start to see people making aggressive moves. You just have to make a judgement call on whether you want to be a part of it at that time.”

“What’s difficult about the Next Gen car is that you can’t go from the back of the pack to the front like you used to be able to. It’s pretty much a two-lane road and you have to pick one lane or the other. No matter what, with these cars having so much drag on them, you can’t get the third lane going. That used to be the avenue to go from the back to the front, so you used to be able to lay back and make your charge whenever you wanted to. Now, you have to try to stay up front and that’s what we’ll try to do, but you ultimately put yourself at risk of getting in a wreck.”

Hamlin has had a sneakily great Playoffs so far. Despite no win in four weeks, the 11 has been second twice, and has a worst result of 10th. Far from needing to win at Talladega, Hamlin’s consistency so far may pay dividends in getting this team back to Phoenix.

Bubba Wallace

At the fall Talladega race a year ago, Bubba Wallace made history with his first career win. Already a winner again this year, can the 23XI Racing team find victory lane again in Alabama? Wallace’s superspeedway prowess is no joke, with a close runner-up in this year’s Daytona 500. If Wallace can simply survive the impending doom that is the big one, then the No. 45 could find the head of the pack and control Talladega again. Among all drivers trying to extend the streak of non-Playoff winners to five, Wallace may have the best chance Sunday.

Joey Logano

Entering Talladega as the points leader, Joey Logano is gunning for win number three of 2022 and a fourth Talladega victory. Logano is always a threat on any superspeedway, but the 22 has not had great luck recently in Alabama. Third in this race last year, that was Logano’s first Talladega top-10 since 2019. He also got wrecked on a restart in April, eventually finishing 32nd. Logano will aim for a much better result this time around, as he hopes to hang onto the championship lead.

Don’t miss a moment of action in the YellaWood 500, as the ultra-tight points battle truly could change lap-by-lap. Playoff race five in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series will go green Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Talladega is the biggest wildcard in an already-hectic postseason, the chances of an upset winner are highest on the high banks.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to James Gilbert/Getty Images for NASCAR