NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Will Richmond Raceway See a 16th Different Winner of 2022?
The NASCAR Cup Series regular season is winding down fast. With Kevin Harvick’s win at Michigan a week ago, only one Playoff spot remains open. The Playoff bubble fight now heads to Richmond Raceway, for the second time in 2022. The two drivers on either end of the Playoff cut line were two of the best at Richmond in April. Can either of them lock up a postseason berth Sunday? Here are some contenders for the Federated Auto Parts 400, as someone’s season could be made or broken at Richmond.
Martin Truex Jr.
At Richmond just four months ago, Martin Truex Jr. was as close as he’s been to a win all year long. The No. 19 Toyota led 80 laps that day in Virginia, winning Stage 2 only to fade late and finish fourth. Aside from this year’s race, Richmond has become a Truex playground in recent times. MTJ has three Richmond triumphs, all coming since 2019. Truex’s most recent win also came at Richmond, just one year ago in the Playoff race. Now on the outside of the Playoffs looking in, Truex is in a must-win or must-perform scenario for Sunday.
“We’re going to show up and fight like we always do,” Truex said. “We know Richmond is a good opportunity for us and we want to make the most of that opportunity, but we don’t really change who we are at this point in the season. James (Small, crew chief) and everyone at Joe Gibbs Racing are doing everything we can and that’s all I can ask for as a driver. I have a lot of confidence going to Richmond and know what we’re capable of.”
Richmond could mark Truex’s last chance to win his way into the Playoffs. Toyotas as a manufacturer have been off this year on road courses like Watkins Glen, and Daytona is the ultimate unknown. At the same time though, the 19 is only 19 points outside of the 16-man title fight. If not a win, Truex’s season could be saved with a few strong Stages and a top-five. The head-to-head points battle Truex is in the heart of will be a great story to watch over the next three weeks.
Ryan Blaney
The one being chased by Truex, Ryan Blaney also showed out at Richmond earlier this season. After starting on pole, the 12 led the opening 128 laps. Previously describing Richmond as his worst track, Blaney only dropped to finish seventh. Holding just a 19-point edge over Truex, Blaney will certainly be points racing if he cannot find the front again. It’s unprecedented that a top-five points driver could miss the Playoffs, but one will likely be left out in three weeks. Both Blaney and Truex will be racing against each other for the final Playoff ticket should we not have a 16th winner. After being two of the best cars at Richmond in April, these two could battle it out Sunday for the win.
Denny Hamlin
While Truex and Blaney led early, Denny Hamlin came in clutch in April. The FedEx 11 pitted late for fresh tires, and the Virginia driver was on rails from then on out. Hamlin took the lead from William Byron with just four laps left, taking a fourth win at his home track. Returning to the site of his first win of 2022, Hamlin is hoping for a Richmond sweep.
“We’re definitely looking forward to going to Richmond,” Hamlin said. “It has been a strong track for me and really Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole for a long time. In the spring, obviously we won the race, but by no means did we have the best car. So, I’m cautiously optimistic about where we stand there based on the improvements we have made since that time. Another variable that is going to be a lot different is just how hot it’s going to be. We’re used to racing under the lights in September, so it’s a little bit cooler. This time, racing on Sunday afternoon in August is going to make it hotter and slicker.”
The 11 team and Denny Hamlin have given away multiple wins this year, including Michigan last week. A late pit road penalty took the FedEx Camry from the lead to having to battle back to third. Coming back to a track they conquered just four months ago, Hamlin should be a favorite to take a fifth win at Richmond.
Kevin Harvick
Just behind Hamlin at the checkers in April was Kevin Harvick. The 4 finished a very close second that day, and enters this Richmond race with a ton of momentum. After a losing streak-busting win at Michigan a week ago, the 4 is in great position to go back-to-back. Despite being a three-time Richmond victor, the most recent of those triumphs for Harvick came in 2013. Over the past 12 trips to the Commonwealth though, Harvick has just two races outside of the top-10. With no pressure left for making the Playoffs, Harvick could be the most dangerous man in NASCAR this weekend.
“You’d like to be close enough to at least give yourself a chance,” Harvick said. “There at the end, we just kind of got jumbled up in traffic and never really got a chance to be close enough to make something happen. The team did a good job making a good pit call and our Mobil 1 Ford Mustang was pretty decent all weekend.”
“There were definitely some differences with the car just the way that it drove and it felt and the things that you did, but it was still the same basic line of driving, and the things that happened during the race with the tire falloff were pretty standard.”
With back-to-back wins six times before in his career, Kevin Harvick could make it seven this weekend. Richmond is one track where the 4’s been snakebitten so many times, that could change on Sunday.
Joey Logano
The Penske 22 is sneakily very consistent at Richmond. Since 2014, only three times has Joey Logano been outside of the top-10 on the 3/4-mile track, with two wins. Richmond is actually Logano’s second-best track statistically with at least five starts. In 26 career Richmond races, Logano has 12 top-fives, 15 top-10s, and an average finish of 10.5. These stats only trail Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the 2018 champion. Trying to build up momentum for the Playoffs, Logano could be tough to beat if given track position late on Sunday.
Kyle Busch
A six-time Richmond winner, Kyle Busch had another potential win taken from his grasp in April. The 18 team mistakenly put on a piece of grille tape, forcing Busch to pit again for its removal. Busch still finished ninth that day, as he had a top-five car. Since 2017, Busch hasn’t been outside of the top-10 at Richmond. After having a very strong car get wrecked out early at Michigan, Rowdy hopes to reign supreme again at one of his favorite tracks.
“Richmond has been great place for me over the years,” Busch said. “I’m not sure exactly why, but it started off rough for me, not running well there in the Truck Series in 2001, but I got back there in an Xfinity car in 2003 and 2004 and everything went really well ever since then. We’ve had a lot of top-fives, a lot of top-two finishes and wins there, so excited about our prospects of going back there this weekend and running well again. I thought we had a legitimate shot of a top-three finish there in the spring and maybe a chance at a win, but would love to be able to better our result from the spring with our M&M’S Camry.”
“I started out really bad there. That first Truck Series race there was horrible. I think I ran into everything but the hot dog stand. The next time I went there was with Hendrick (Motorsports) in the Busch Series in 2004 when they first repaved the track, and I ran really well. We were able to win that race, and I led the most laps. From that point forward, I feel like I kind of learned or had a sense of what it takes to be fast there and what you need to be able to do to win there.”
“As the years have gone on, the racetrack has definitely aged, it’s definitely gone through some transition, it has lost a lot of grip. There have been some changes in that respect, as well, just trying to figure out, ‘OK, what’s next? What’s the next thing that’s going to keep you on top of your game at Richmond?’ The new car is another challenge that we took there this year. It’s always been a good track for me, I enjoy going there. It’s a fun short track; very challenging short track that doesn’t lend itself to typical short tracks around the country.”
Kyle Busch has largely had a summer to forget. Amidst his contract talks and possibly shopping around for a 2023 seat, Busch has not scored a top-10 in eight weeks, a career-worst span. This same stretch has seen the 18 plummet from second to eighth in points, affecting his future Playoff seeding. If the 18 is to be a Playoff contender this fall, he needs to turn his dismal season around. Perhaps no track is more better suited for Rowdy than Richmond, as this is one of his best venues.
Coverage of the Federated Auto Parts 400 is Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Channel 90. Late strategy shook up the eventual finishing order at Richmond in April. Expect the amount of drama and shuffling to only increase this time, with every position being so valuable for every driver’s Playoff future. Richmond offers a great chance at a 16th winner of 2022, be sure to not miss a lap of action at America’s Premier Short Track.
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images for NASCAR
