NASCAR
Stratta’s Six: Who Will be King of Rattlesnake Hill at Phoenix Raceway?
NASCAR’s west coast swing wraps up this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. The desert mile has decided the last two champions; it now marks one driver’s next step towards the 2022 Cup Series title. Who are some favorites heading into this weekend? Let’s take a look at who could win the first points-paying short track race of 2022.
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick may be the cactus king with a record nine Phoenix wins, but none have come since 2018. Over the last seven Phoenix races though, the 4 has not finished worse than ninth. Harvick is no longer dominating races here anymore unopposed. However, he is still very close to the front of the pack. 2018 was when the layout at Phoenix Raceway changed, flipping the track entirely. Harvick mentioned just how much racing at Phoenix has changed since then.
“When they moved the start-finish line, there was nothing really different, other than the restart,” Harvick explained. “The restarts have become much more exciting because of the fact that you can use the apron and everything that happens going into what is now turn one. So, the restarts are the biggest difference since they moved the start-finish line. This configuration of racetrack is much different than what we had in the late ’90s, early 2000s. That track used to be very low on grip, and this one’s become lower on grip and now, with the resin that they add on the racetrack, you have to kind of adapt just because of the fact that you never know what the grip level is going to be. The resin and the start-finish line have added a couple of different elements to it that we didn’t have in the past.”
“You just have to be aware of where you are on the racetrack, and it depends on which guy you are. If you’re the guy on old tires, new tires, inside, outside, you kind of have to have a plan before you get to the corner as far as what you want to accomplish. If you accomplish it, that’s fine, but if you don’t, then you immediately have to go into damage control, where you go on defense to try and be used up as little as possible.
“You can easily wind up in a bad spot in the middle, four-wide, because it funnels down pretty quickly off of turn two. There’s a wall that you come up on to the straightaway, and then everybody’s funneling from four-wide to at least three-wide. There are a lot of different angles of attack that happen, so you just have to be aware of your situation.”
With a winless drought nearing 50 races, Harvick hopes to break back into victory lane. Perhaps no track better suits Harvick winning again than Phoenix.
Denny Hamlin
Five of the last seven Phoenix races have seen Denny Hamlin in the top five, including a 2019 win. Hamlin has made it to the Championship 4 the last two years at Phoenix, but has yet to seal the deal. After running into issues in each of 2022’s first three races, the 11 team is yearning for a clean race.
“Everyone on the team is very confident,” Hamlin said. “We know what we’re capable of and everyone at Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota are doing a great job giving us cars capable of running up front. It’s just a matter of getting to the finish without anything crazy happening. Unfortunately, that has been easier said than done so far. At the end of the day, we just have to go out and execute and we’ll be fine.”
Last spring at Phoenix, Hamlin led laps and was in contention for the win. Should the Fedex 11 team execute to their full potential, Hamlin could be eyeing a third career Phoenix victory.
Kyle Busch
Three-time Phoenix victor Kyle Busch has been one of the strongest in the valley of the sun. Since 2015, Rowdy has only been outside of the top 10 twice at Phoenix. This same timespan has also seen the 18 in Phoenix victory lane twice. After coming oh so close to the Las Vegas win last week, Busch is hungry for a victory.
“I’ve enjoyed racing at Phoenix, so looking forward to heading there this weekend in out DEWALT Toyota Camry TRD,” Busch said. “We were able to test out there in January and we were a bit off of where I was expecting. But since the season started, everyone at JGR and TRD have worked really hard and I think we’ve improved in a lot of areas with the new car. We had really good speed in the race on Sunday [at Vegas], so I’m hoping our cars are fast in Phoenix and we can take some of the things we learned in the test there and apply them to what we’ve learned about the car over the last few races and have a shot at the win there.”
With nine top-fives in the last 13 Phoenix races, Kyle Busch may be tough to beat on Sunday. If Busch is to win, it would be his 60th career Cup Series victory. Rocking the DEWALT colors this weekend, the 18 hopes to find more success on the desert mile.
Chase Elliott
Since his championship-winning performance at Phoenix in 2020, Chase Elliott has been one of the best in the desert. Driver 9 has four-straight Phoenix top-10s, with a worst result of seventh since 2020. With the championship on the line in November 2020, Elliott led nearly half of the race at Phoenix. The 9 took a commanding victory and the Bill France Cup. Last year, Elliott was fifth in both the spring and fall, he led a lot again in the season finale. With back-to-back wins out of two different Hendrick drivers, Elliott hopes to join the 2022 winners club this weekend.
“When we tested at Phoenix earlier this year, I felt like of all the tracks it was the most similar to how our old car felt when we were there,” Elliott said. “Obviously, testing is a little different than going out and racing, but I’m looking forward to getting back there and continuing the success we’ve had in the past.”
Elliott’s last oval win shockingly was at Phoenix in 2020. The Hendrick 9 team will hope to add to their Phoenix stats this weekend with another checkered flag.
Kyle Larson
Just four months ago, Kyle Larson was on top of the NASCAR world in Phoenix, winning the Cup Series title. Dating back to 2018, Larson has not finished worse than seventh in any trip to the desert. Last spring, the 5 was one of the fastest cars in the field, only to be plagued by two pit road speeding penalties. Larson would only recover to finish P7, backing that up with last fall’s win. The 5 team is as strong now as they were a year ago. As a result, Larson has to be considered a favorite for another victory on the west coast swing.
“The balance of the car during the test didn’t change as much during a run compared to last November at Phoenix,” Larson said. “My first time in the Next Gen car – well, at least my first time with the rules package as close to what we’re using this year – was at Phoenix in January, which was the freshest track in my mind. It helped me realize it didn’t drive too much differently.”
Amazingly, all 11 of Kyle Larson’s wins so far with Hendrick Motorsports have come on different tracks. The 5 team will try to change that Sunday, as they chase a second Phoenix victory.
Martin Truex Jr.
Last spring’s Phoenix winner, Martin Truex Jr. has trended upwards on the one-mile track of late. While last spring was Truex’s first triumph in the desert, the 19 has been strong here in recent years. MTJ is riding a streak of top-10s in five of the last six Phoenix races. Truex is confident in his team and winning chances again after a January test at Phoenix.
“I think just laps in general in the new car at Phoenix,” Truex said. “We felt like we learned a ton at the test that hopefully gives us an idea of what we need to bring back. That was our first time on a smaller, flatter track in these cars, so we really went to work on trying as many things as possible that we can use and build on throughout the year.”
Backing up his spring win in the season finale last fall, Truex placed second to Larson. After being in contention late last week in Las Vegas, Truex hopes to bring similar speed to Phoenix.
Coverage of the Ruoff Mortgage 500k will be Sunday on FOX at 3:00 p.m. ET. Will one of these six past winners at Phoenix end in victory lane again, or will someone else play upset?
Written by Peter Stratta
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Photo Credit to Sean Gardner/Getty Images for NASCAR
