Who’s in the Green, Who’s in the Red for The Chase After Vegas?

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NASCAR

Chase Standings Deep Dive After Week Five From Las Vegas

Las Vegas was the halfway point in NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup, and with it came a lot of separation among the 16 contenders. Through five weeks, first to 16th are now a whopping 200 points apart. Four drivers are now left within a race’s gap of the lead. The Chase’s first stanza was very fruitful for some and very forgettable for others, with great movement throughout the grid. Here are all 16 drivers and their positions moving ahead into the final run for the 2026 Cup Series championship.

Who’s On a Hot Hand?

Riding high as the points leader are Hendrick Motorsports team No. 5 and Kyle Larson. Starting out The Chase as the seventh seed, a historic run of five-straight top-fives has vaulted Larson to the top. Driver 5 is only the second man to ever open a postseason run with five top-fives in a row (Joey Logano, 2014) and has won twice in that span.

Las Vegas appeared to be a chink in the reigning champions armor early on, but he grinded out a blue-collar second-place result. The man who won it all last year now leads the Cup Series standings by 40 points heading into The Chase’s second half.

From one past champion to another, Joey Logano has also elevated himself into late season form. Team Penske’s No. 22 stole the Bristol Night Race win a few weeks ago, drawing to within 16 points of the leader. 20th at Kansas and 10th at Las Vegas have seen the 22 drop back a bit, but he’s still slotted fourth in the standings. Logano will have upcoming dates circled between Phoenix, Talladega, and Martinsville all as Penske-strong tracks. The self-imposed ‘4 the Haters’ mission that Even Year Logano is on for another title still has gas left in its tank.

Another stout Team Penske title threat is perennial contender Ryan Blaney. The Chase to date has been nothing short of peaks and valleys for team 12. Three top-fives are split up by two sub-30th-place results, ranking Blaney fifth in points. Both of Blaney’s bad finishes were outside of his control, blowing a brake rotor at Gateway and being spun late at Bristol. Mustang 12 was in position to capitalize in both of those races, leading to back-to-back what ifs.

Blaney’s championship quest is far from over, but he will likely need to win at least once if not twice over the next five weeks. There are a few bright spots coming up though for the 12. Blaney is a fiend around Phoenix, few are as deft as he is in the Talladega draft, and he’s a master at Martinsville. If Blaney finds victory lane at any of those tracks, then the title fight is back on from a current 80-point deficit.

Nobody’s been more consistent over the las two weeks than Chase Briscoe. In command late at Kansas only to backslide to fourth, the No. 19 had a banner day in Las Vegas, winning after leading 175 laps. On the heels of sixth at Darlington and back-to-back DNFs, Briscoe finds himself sixth in the championship, 84 points off the lead. That may sound like an insurmountable gap, but team 19 just had a 75-point day trim a chunk off their deficit. If pace like Kansas returns this weekend at Charlotte or down the stretch, then Briscoe could make some more noise.

The historic three-peat run to start 2026 for Tyler Reddick could not seem like a more distant memory. The five-time winner this season has yet to see any victory lane since April, with an average-looking Chase run so far. The No. 45 began The Chase as the third seed, and is now 106 points back in seventh.

He may have been wrecked coming across the line in Las Vegas, but third tied Reddick’s best postseason result yet. If similar speed can be maintained in Charlotte, then 23XI Racing could have a foundation for a late season surge. Reddick also has recent wins at both Talladega and Homestead, so confidence should not be lost in the 45 camp.

Few may have had many real Chase expectations for Austin Cindric, but the third Team Penske driver has turned a few heads. 13th at Darlington was his worst result through five weeks, capped off with a Kansas runner-up and fourth at Las Vegas. Intermediate pace in particular has been quite surprising from the 2. Penske struggled organization-wide on this track type earlier this season. Cindric still remains winless on the year, but the man who started The Chase ranked 15th is now ninth. Cindric has still impressively been top-15 in all but one of the last 14 races, showing quiet consistency at all track types.

If Kansas and Las Vegas were any indicator, then the 2 should be a front runner this weekend at Charlotte too. Past that, Cindric has an uncanny ability to control superspeedway races, being in command multiple times before at Talladega. Penske prowess at both Phoenix and Martinsville could both pay off for the 2 crew as well. Currently in a career-best points position, Cindric hopes to close out 2026 with another strong five weeks.

The self-dubbed ‘Generational Run’ for Bubba Wallace has not entirely come to fruition in The Chase. But there have been some bright spots for him in this title stretch. 23XI Racing’s flagship team has seen four top-10s in five weeks, setting a new single-season top-10 record for Wallace (15). Wallace was challenging Briscoe for the lead late at Las Vegas last week, before old tires saw the 23 fade to finish eighth. Toyota’s consistent speed should see Wallace as another top-10 threat at Charlotte and other upcoming stops. Wallace is currently 10th in points, tying his career-best championship result. If a few more strong runs happen, Wallace could see a new Cup Series standings high point, regardless of winning.

Who Needs Help?

On paper Denny Hamlin is still very much in this title fight. However, it has been a rough five weeks for the regular season champion. Third at Kansas is Hamlin’s high water mark so far in The Chase. But that was followed up by a dismal 16th-place run at Las Vegas. Hamlin started out last week leading from the pole. This only led to a self-spin late in the opening stage and damage on the No. 11 Toyota. In a few ways this race was a microcosm of Hamlin’s postseason so far. He started out very strong only to have adversity hinder all progress.

Now 40 points off of Larson, Hamlin is in desperate need of mega points days. Charlotte, Phoenix, and Martinsville especially are all some of Hamlin’s best tracks ahead. The elusive title run is not over for Hamlin, but he’s done himself no favors in the opening five rounds. It’s no small miracle that Hamlin is only 40 points in the hole, and can still recover.

Starting off The Chase with a breakthrough Darlington win, Christopher Bell hit a big hurdle last week at Las Vegas. Losing power steering, the No. 20 Toyota limped home in 23rd-place, and is now 55 points off the lead. This points gap can be erased in five weeks, but Bell will need others above him to stumble somewhere.

Driver 20 has past wins at four of the last five tracks on this year’s calendar. In short, Bell has knowledge on how to find success almost everywhere. Third in the championship is not a death sentence for Bell’s title hopes.

A serious threat for most improved driver of the year, Ty Gibbs is now sixth in points. If the No. 54 team can merely stay here, Gibbs would set a new career-best championship result by a wide margin. The 54 has gone to victory lane twice this season. More recently, they have seen a pair of top-fives so far in The Chase. Offset by three races outside the top-15, however, Gibbs is eighth with a 110-point gap. Gibbs has seen standout runs at a few of the upcoming tracks on the schedule. Him treading water and maintaining a personal best result are not out of the question.

One of two drivers making a maiden Chase run, Carson Hocevar has continued to be a near-weekly highlight. The 10-week postseason kicked off for the Spire Motorsports No. 77 by making contact with Brad Keselowski at Darlington. That night, Hocevar claimed “he spun” post-race. Two weeks later at Bristol, Hocevar finished third after contact with Ryan Blaney while racing for second. Both drivers fought on pit road after this incident, with Hocevar landing a few punches on Blaney. Since then, Hocevar was 33rd in Kansas after a restart spin, and saw a quiet 12th-place outing at Las Vegas.

Entering Charlotte 11th in points, Hocevar is still in the midst of a career-best season by all measures. The No. 77 can be a top-10 car at season’s end, if he doesn’t have any lingering on-track enemies. Martinsville last fall saw the 77 around multiple times as payback. Perhaps this history will repeat itself in a few weeks. Hocevar is eagerly looking ahead to a chance at a Talladega season sweep as well. Over the next five weeks, the 77 will try to upset the top teams again.

Amid a largely forgotten season for William Byron, there have been a few bright spots in The Chase. Starting out the 10-week hunt as the 13th seed, Byron suffered an engine failure in race one from Darlington. Since then, however, the No. 24 has quietly been one of the most consistent contenders overall, with four-straight top-10s. Byron’s championship bid may be a forgone conclusion at this point. Despite this fact, the Hendrick driver still has a lot to race for in 2026. Driver 24 has not gone 0-36 in a year since 2020, a span of six-straight winning seasons. Owning past victories on three of the last five tracks, Byron can easily snag a victory in the near future.

From one Hendrick driver to another, Chase Elliott has been treading water so far in this year’s Chase. The two-time winner from this spring has only seen three top-10s since May. One of these top finishes was at Las Vegas, however, where the No. 9 was eighth. Entering Charlotte ranked 13th, Elliott aims to improve his points standing with more breakout runs to close this year. Much like Byron, Elliott has won on four of the last five tracks before. As a result, more success is not out of the question for the Napa No. 9 crew.

Spire Motorsports’ second Chase contender, Daniel Suarez saw his year defined with the last win at Charlotte Motor Speedway. May’s Coca-Cola 600 admittedly saw strategy and a rain-shortened race fall into Suarez’s favor. The No. 7 team now head into this weekend looking to back up their emotional first victory. As far as The Chase goes, Suarez has been a bit underwhelming and brings up 14th in points. Part of this has been caused by Suarez being last of all Chase contenders in stage points earned (82). That position mirrors exactly where Suarez has finished across the last three weeks, his best postseason results to date. Charlotte will be a true test of where this team stands for the rest of this season. If any of Suarez’s Coke 600 speed can return, then they could possibly upset again with another win.

Carrying the flag for RFK Racing, Chris Buescher is their lone Chase driver who has not visited victory lane. The No. 17 Ford has 10 top-10s on the year, but none since Atlanta in July. Over the last five weeks, Buescher has only been as high as 13th, and is now 15th in points. One of the 17’s best all around days this season was Talladega in April, where he was second. Returning to the Alabama high banks in a few weeks could see Buescher end his two-plus year losing drought. At this point, team 17 should be gunning for a top-10 points finish. These aspirations come amid so much uncertainty now around their organization.

Bringing up the tail end of The Chase at its halfway point, Ryan Preece earned his maiden postseason appearance by winning Daytona in August. This first career points-paying win was enough for Preece to surpass Shane van Gisbergen. The RFK Racing ace made the cut as the 16th man in points. Over the last five weeks, the No. 60 Ford has been 10th three times. Despite this step up in performance, Preece has yet to make up any serious ground in the standings. Now 200 points back of Larson, Preece remains on pace to score several career-best numbers this season. Bragging right are also on the line between Preece and Buescher for best-finishing RFK driver in The Chase. This inter-team battle will be fun to watch play out over the next five weeks.

Far beyond just the championship, there are intriguing battles aplenty across the entire Chase grid. 16 drivers’ and teams’ seasons can and will be defined over the last five weeks of 2026. Championship threat or not, a lot does remain at stake for every contender. Las Vegas may have separated a few aces from the pretenders for the big prize. The Cup Series’ deck of cards is still stacked 16-deep for fun storylines to follow as 2026 draws to a close.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to Sean Gardner/Getty Images