Who Can Take the Chase Crown in Charlotte?

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NASCAR

Stratta’s Six: Who Can Capture the Flag and Chase Momentum in Charlotte?

For the first time in nine years, NASCAR will race on Charlotte’s oval in the fall. Each Chase race since 2017 has been on the Charlotte Roval, with 2026 going back to the track’s traditional layout. As race six in this year’s championship quest, Charlotte could see one driver crowned title favorite and pick up a big boost. Here are a few contenders who hope to leave The Queen City with a big check. A large sum of points could be deposited by one team from the Bank of America 400.

Kyle Larson

Already off to a historic Chase start, can Kyle Larson keep the good times rolling in Charlotte? Twice a winner before on the Charlotte Roval, Larson also found success on the oval with the 2021 Coca-Cola 600. In four starts since then on the mile-and-a-half, the No. 5 has been snakebitten with two top-10s and two races 30th or worse. Larson is quite literally checkers or wreckers at Charlotte, as seen in this up-and-down stretch. In stark contrast, Larson has not finished worse than fifth across the opening five Chase races. It’s hard to bet against Larson being up front again at Charlotte.

“Do what we’ve been doing – keep fighting,” Larson said. “Yeah, [the remaining Chase tracks] are all good tracks for us. Yes, I am surprised we got two wins and five top-fives, but I also believe that we could run well. It’s gone way better than I thought it would. There are still five more races, but you can see how many points have been gained in five races. It could easily switch in the next five. No, I’m not comfortable with a 40-point lead, but we’ve got to keep advancing and distancing ourselves from the field. That would be great. Just need to make the most out of each day, fight through them, go to Charlotte next and not look too far ahead of ourselves. Just stay focused.”

“Getting a win at Charlotte would be great not only for the points, but just getting a win at home is cool for everybody in the shop. You usually have a lot of people from the race team there at the track, so everybody kind of feels like a part of the win even more than they do for other wins, so winning at Charlotte has always been important.”

Despite a checkered Charlotte record, Larson does have laps led in five-straight oval races dating back to his 2021 triumph. On intermediates in 2026, the 5 has seen a win, five top-10s, and 412 laps led in seven races. The first half of Las Vegas a week ago was cause for concern in the 5 camp. Sunday did end, however, with major adjustments leading to a 2nd-place finish. Larson could be on either extreme of a dominant day or a drive to forget. How the points leader fares in the Hendrick hometown race could set the course for the rest of his Chase.

Denny Hamlin

As has often been the case in this year’s Chase, Larson is almost equally matched by Denny Hamlin. The Joe Gibbs Racing ace also owns one Charlotte oval Coke 600 win (2022), and is tied with Larson in prerace winning odds. Across five Charlotte Next Gen races, Hamlin owns the very first victory, three top-fives, and laps led in four years. More recently, though, Hamlin is yet to have a clean race in the postseason. Can Charlotte be where veteran experience shines for the perennial contender?

“I think it’s going to be different and different than what we’ve seen at Charlotte,” Hamlin said. “I mean, it’s been a while. And if we’re looking to see like when is it not raining, it’s actually going to be pretty warm as well. So, we have not raced in the broad daylight of Charlotte on the oval in like quite some time. So, I think that I’m going to have to dig deep in my notes for trends. And even practices have not, I feel like even when we’ve practiced for the 600 I feel like that’s even in the evening, right? So we’re in for a slick track I believe.”

Hamlin’s intermediate stats all season are on another level compared to anyone else. Through seven races, the No. 11 has a win, six top-fives, 432 laps led, and an average finish of 4.5. These numbers are only dragged down by a week ago at Las Vegas. Hamlin spun from the top-five early, got damage, and finished 16th. After leading 75 laps at Charlotte in May only to lose ground late, Hamlin has retribution on his mind for Sunday.

Joey Logano

Can Even Year Joey Logano strike again at Charlotte? Logano is one of only two active drivers (Brad Keselowski) with a fall Charlotte oval win, taking the checkers here in 2015. Team Penske’s No. 22 has not found victory lane at this track since then, only seeing four top-10s in the last 14 races.

“Charlotte has been one of the best mile-and-a-halves we’ve had lately, surprisingly enough because at one point everyone didn’t like it,” Logano said. “Now, it’s a good one again. It is a great race. I think whether it’s hot and slick, which it won’t be, or cooler or at night depending on how the weather looks, it’s gonna probably be pretty dang racy like it has been. It’s a track that is top, bottom, anywhere you want to go. There are a lot of options. It’s pretty different though than Vegas and maybe some of the setup stuff translates, but it’s also pretty different. Especially because of the texture of the track and the bumps. It’s bouncing around a lot in there. It’s pretty rough, especially [turns] three and four, so those parts definitely show up a lot more than the other tracks we’ve been to here recently.”

“I personally would rather race on oval any moment of the day.  There is no doubt what I like. At this point in my career, I know what I’m specialized in and it’s not road courses. I’m good with what we’ve got there, so I look forward to that part. The points, it’s something that we look at a lot. It’s pretty hard to say exactly what you’re gonna have to do to win this thing. Obviously, you’ve got one car that’s out there by 40 right now and it’s one car and he’s likely to be able to stay running at the pace he’s running. He can do that, but it’s also likely they have some issues. At some point, they’re gonna fight through something. It’s really hard to say, so, if he keeps doing what he’s doing, it’s gonna be really hard to catch him. He keeps running in the top-five and scoring those points, it’s really hard to figure out how to catch that. But one bad race, and he’s right back to where we’re in contention again and we can run him back down. Each week gets a little bit harder. That 70-point number is pretty far back. It’s something we definitely can do. We’re not talking a log off the fire in any way, we’re going all-in. I like the position we’re in for the reason of if we are racing for a championship, which we are. There’s not much to lose. We’re on the edge of saying we can do it, so we can race kind of all or nothing in a way to try to still go after this championship. We’re there. In the hunt still, we’re just in the back half of the hunt.”

A long winless drought at a track is no reason to discount Joey Logano’s chances. The 22 went to victory lane earlier this year at both Richmond and Bristol, two tracks Logano where had not won for several years. Intermediate pace has seemingly been found again by Team Penske, as shown by Austin Cindric’s recent results. In short, Logano could find a way to break back into winning form on the Charlotte oval.

Chase Briscoe

Fourth at Kansas two weeks ago and the dominant man at Las Vegas, why can’t Chase Briscoe go back-to-back in Charlotte? The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 was third in last year’s Coke 600, and led laps this year before wrecking late. On intermediates this season Briscoe has been a regular man to beat too. The seven prior 1.5-mile track races have seen the 19 win twice. This same span has seen Briscoe earn five top-10s and 287 laps led. With an average finish of 10th, it’s hard to not envision Briscoe going two-for-two this weekend.

“Definitely you can gain or lose a lot of points on those mile-and-a-halves,” Briscoe said last year. “I would say those are the three races where, for us at least, if it’s anything like the rest of the season, those are the ones that we just have circled where you have to go and just absolutely maximize every point possible. Because that’s where we, to this point of the season, we have definitely had a distinct advantage just as a Toyota group. So yeah, we need to go there and just dominate stages, dominate the race. That’s where we have the advantage right now. So we need to take advantage of that. So I definitely think that’s where you’re going to win or lose the Chase for either way, right? Like if those other teams, like a Ryan Blaney, that’s going to be really strong everywhere else. If he can go on those mile-and-a-halves and say win one of those, that pits him in a great position because at the rest of the tracks he’s going to be really strong.”

Now sixth in the Chase standings after his monster Las Vegas run, Chase Briscoe is on title contention precipice. 84 points off the lead is a high mountain to climb, but a late season surge could easily continue in Charlotte. If Briscoe wants any shot at being a legit championship threat, then another banner day must be ahead.

Christopher Bell

If May’s Coke 600 ran its full distance, then Christopher Bell could have earned his second Charlotte win in three years. CBell and Charlotte have quietly been a great pairing together, with three top-fives, four top-10s, and 187 laps led over his last five starts. Driver No. 20 is gearing up for his first-ever fall race on the Charlotte oval. He believes there will be similarities to May’s 600-mile marathon.

“I would think that, you know, a lot of it would carry over,” Bell said. “But honestly, I’m not the person to talk about that because I’ve never run a fall Charlotte oval race in my in my career. So, you know, we were talking about that earlier, myself and my team. My first year in Xfinity was the first year of the Roval. And then ever since then, we’ve been on the Roval and I haven’t run a fall oval race. And on top of that, they said that this is the first ever 400-mile fall oval race too. So certainly there will be things that are different. And you know, I think talking about strategy stuff, the stage lengths are a lot different than the spring race with having the Coke 600 being four 100-lap stages, and now we got our normal intermediate stuff. So, yeah, I think the race is going to play out different than the Coke 600. And the biggest difference I think will just be the intensity of the race. I mean, the 600 has become or it always has been a survival race. Guys just race differently in the Coke 600 because it’s such a grind mentally and physically. So there’s a lot more give and take where you know this will be a normal intermediate race. So, I would expect the intensity level to be up higher.”

“I’m looking forward to it. Charlotte has been one of my favorite intermediates, probably my favorite intermediate on the schedule. And it’s shorter distance, which I like. So, the Coke 600’s a really special race with it being, you know, a unique, very long marathon. Where now we get a normal race at Charlotte that should be a lot of fun at a fun racetrack.”

“Charlotte is one of those tracks that changes a lot from sunlight being really hot, baking the asphalt to having a lot of grip whenever the sun goes down and it gets cooler. So hopefully we get a sunshine race at Charlotte. I think that would be the biggest difference between, you know, the 600. If we get a cloud-covered or an evening race, I I think it’ll look more traditional for sure.”

Bell is very much still in the thick of this year’s title fight, entering Charlotte ranked third and 50 points off the lead. Unlike teammate Chase Briscoe, however, Bell had a very poor outing in Las Vegas that hampered his points total. The Darlington winner has seen three top-10s in the first five Chase races. Bell needs another clean day and strong finish to help erase his points deficit and reassert himself as a threat.

Ryan Blaney

2023’s Coke 600 winner Ryan Blaney looks to return to his own winning ways at home. Also the Charlotte Roval’s inaugural winner from 2018, Blaney is one of four drivers with victories on both layouts. Since the 600 triumph that propelled him to a Cup title three years ago, Blaney’s been very hit or miss here. The No. 12 has wrecked out of two of the three spring Charlotte races. The one outlier was earlier this season, when Blaney was a quiet seventh-place after rain rolled in.

Fifth the last two weeks, Blaney hopes to ride this hot hand through another 1.5-mile oval and possibly earn a first Chase win. Starting Charlotte 80 points in the hole, team 12 needs a mega day if they are to capitalize and take chunks out of this gap. The title run for Blaney is far from over, but a stellar Sunday is needed from Charlotte.

The Bank of America 400 has a chance to be the biggest unknown yet in this year’s Chase. Charlotte Motor Speedway has never seen a fall Next Gen oval race, with many drivers experiencing something all new this weekend. The green flag will fly in Chase race number six Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Rounding out a trio of intermediate ovals, it will be fun to see if the same players are up front in Charlotte.

Written by Peter Stratta

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Photo Credit to Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images